COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Deleted member 77198]

Had a text from my cousin who is a paramedic, every cardiac arrest outside of hospital is treated as Covid 19, they gave to wear the full PPE, except, they don’t have it, despite what they are saying on the news. This starts wiping out our nhs staff who the fuck is going to help us?

Indeed.

44 doctors have died already in Italy from this

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....toll-doctors-rises-44-coronavirus-crisis.html

 

[Tim of the Oak]

The data above though is specific to the Lombardy region, there’s definitely a spike in the south of Lombardy which was always going to happen when everybody headed for the trains to escape go home as soon as the announcement was made. I’m just surprised that under the stringent lockdown conditions we are still seeing as many test positive at this stage in the window from the 8th March lockdown.

Maybe the virus spread from the middle of Lombardy to the South (but I’m guessing here). The Atalanta vs Bergamo game in Milan on the 19th Feb is highlighted as as a key factor in the rapid growth of people with the virus in Lombardy.
https://www.si.com/soccer/2020/03/2...navirus-champions-league-san-siro-milan-italy . The vast majority of those cases would have worked their way through by now but I wonder if those people with the virus passed on the virus to friends and family then the virus could have still been peaking a further 3 weeks later and throughout the more recent stages of the lockdown.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

The data above though is specific to the Lombardy region, there’s definitely a spike in the south of Lombardy which was always going to happen when everybody headed for the trains to escape go home as soon as the announcement was made. I’m just surprised that under the stringent lockdown conditions we are still seeing as many test positive at this stage in the window from the 8th March lockdown.

Does “testing positive” mean a positive test for either having it or having had it; or, live cases?

If it’s the former, the positive case numbers don’t really mean too much in relation to how they’re portrayed as a day-to-day comparison. Positive tests will just show a greater percentage of the population have it or have had it at some point.

If it’s the latter, well, we’re all fucked!

 

[Worzel Gummidge#9]

Heard 2 guys going on about the remaining games of the season left
My response

This is why we should fuck football off completely, who cares give Liverpool the title I don’t give a fuck more important things in the world going on
People are dying yet some people would go back in a stadium tomorrow
Fucking morons

Exactly, there are far more important things going on right now

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

Ireland going into lockdown from midnight tonight.

 

[Marvin]

Why isn't the UK govt imposing stricter lockdown measures?

All across Europe epidemics are beginning to peak and the only significant measure that's driving that is isolation.

So why wouldn't you just tighten the lockdown?

What happens if you flatten the curve too much? It's tail gets larger and you end with disruption dragging on and on.

Does this sound valid? I don't know how much of the working population is doing BAU but a significant proportion is and according to the models I have seen this seriously undermines their effectiveness.

See this for example

 

[Deleted member 77198]

Why isn't the UK govt imposing stricter lockdown measures?

All across Europe epidemics are beginning to peak and the only significant measure that's driving that is isolation.

So why wouldn't you just tighten the lockdown?

What happens if you flatten the curve too much? It's tail gets larger and you end with disruption dragging on and on.

Does this sound valid? I don't know how much of the working population is doing BAU but a significant proportion is and according to the models I have seen this seriously undermines their effectiveness.

See this for example

Where is beginning to peak? I know I’m only looking at the headline ones of us, Italy, Spain, France and Holland... but every one of those is still on a sharp rise up.

I agree that there needs to be a total lockdown soon.

 

[kaz7]

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ths-in-one-day-highest-number-so-far-11964712

the pope on his own is a sight to behold

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ths-in-one-day-highest-number-so-far-11964712

the pope on his own is a sight to behold

Looks like he's just found out Tesco have reducedio online baskets to 80 items max.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Why isn't the UK govt imposing stricter lockdown measures?

All across Europe epidemics are beginning to peak and the only significant measure that's driving that is isolation.

So why wouldn't you just tighten the lockdown?

What happens if you flatten the curve too much? It's tail gets larger and you end with disruption dragging on and on.

Does this sound valid? I don't know how much of the working population is doing BAU but a significant proportion is and according to the models I have seen this seriously undermines their effectiveness.

See this for example

Flattening the curve too much? You're having a laugh mate. We're debating by how much the NHS will be overloaded and therefore how many unnecessary deaths there will be. Not whether we might have overdone it and might have excess capacity. The idea that we could he overdoing it, is simply ludicrous. Unless building 10,000 bed makeshift hospitals and begging for ventilators is something we find desirable?

 

[MCFC_ Phil]

WORTH A READ - EXPLAINS MORE THAN I KNEW

Good read from an immunologist at Johns Hopkins University

Not really feeling sick and do not want to be..but if you are feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...

It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..

H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

Fast forward.

Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.

And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...

And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.

Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not needed right now.

#flattenthecurve. Stay home folks... and share this to those that just are not catching on. To copy and paste, hold your hand on the text till copy appears, then go to your page and hold you finger down again till paste appears.[/QUOTE
Telling it as it is Sticky thread maybe?

 

[urban genie]

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Where is beginning to peak? I know I’m only looking at the headline ones of us, Italy, Spain, France and Holland... but every one of those is still on a sharp rise up.

I agree that there needs to be a total lockdown soon.

is a total lockdown you cannot go out at all?

 

[MCFC_ Phil]

New cases is only a measure of number of tests. If you want to look for trends look at deaths.

Both they'll look at tests and deaths and extrapolate from there

 

[marco]

Why isn't the UK govt imposing stricter lockdown measures?

All across Europe epidemics are beginning to peak and the only significant measure that's driving that is isolation.

So why wouldn't you just tighten the lockdown?

What happens if you flatten the curve too much? It's tail gets larger and you end with disruption dragging on and on.

Does this sound valid? I don't know how much of the working population is doing BAU but a significant proportion is and according to the models I have seen this seriously undermines their effectiveness.

See this for example

the peak of the curve is only determind by the health care capacity,so in efect this will differ in other countries,we cant over flatten the curve marvin

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

is a total lockdown you cannot go out at all?

I would say so. Not sure how the authorities plan to feed everyone if that is the case.

 

[Mikeegrini]

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Lookin at the graphs from the FT above, collated today from data taken from Johns Hopkins and others. I see nothing to tell that our trajectory of deaths, as a country, is any different from eg, Italy or Spain. The only graph that shows any slight encouragement is for city's, where London is on a slightly better track for deaths doubling against time than Rome etc. Yet, the message continues "we are in a better position than Italy or Spain" or "we are 2 weeks behind country X" are we? I'd love to think so but I'm finding it increasingly difficult to believe the message to be honest. I worried again that the moment is lost, to little to late once more.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

I would say so. Not sure how the authorities plan to feed everyone if that is the case.

that’s what I thought? So can only go out once to get food or exercise and can’t see anyone and need to stay two metres from everyone, been doing that fine, but apparently there is another level?

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

I haven’t been near another person for a week or so. However I have been to the Supermarket and local shop. That’s where the risk is now isn’t it. Who knows who has sneezed all over your shopping.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

that’s what I thought? So can only go out once to get food or exercise and can’t see anyone and need to stay two metres from everyone, been doing that fine, but apparently there is another level?

I queued for 40 minutes in the car park at my local Tesco today. It was one in, one out and I think there were only 40 customers allowed in at a time. Good job it wasn't p*ssing down. I was there about 3pm, and I'm not sure what it's going to be like at peak time tomorrow.