This is exactly the pandemic that the experts have been predicting for years.
The WHO said a new coronavirus pandemic was the world's biggest disease risk since the Ebola outbreak ended in 2016.
John Hopkins University did a war game predicting an almost identical pandemic flu 3 months ago.
This hasn't taken any epidemiologists by surprise.
No, but vital details of the pathology of this virus are not known. And the extent of the spread of the disease is largely unknown. The effectiveness of the counter acting measures is hypothetical.
We are in the realm of projection, best guesses, damage limitation, avoiding worst outcomes, balancing the possible health outcomes that come with severe recession and / or social unrest.
We're worried about how bad it will become. We have an idea from ages back. It could hospitalise 1% of people who catch it. Now tell me how many people are catching it? Nowhere near enough testing is being done to know that. Thus the tasks are relatively simple. We need the most number of prepared beds, ventilators, and staff available. They need testing urgently. Then the wider population people needs testing.
The Govt needs to stop saying anything apart from the same simple message. Isolate and distance in every way possible, or you may catch it and end up on a ventilator, and after four weeks, we'd probably know you were dead. Also, bear in mind that if you avoid the ICU, many many people could die.
It needs to show clear messaging and to show in very plain sight that it is stopping at nothing to ensure the delivery of equipment and resources.
Hitherto, we've been molliecoddled and pleaded with by a sick, obese man with a floppy fringe who didn't follow his own social distancing rules.
Keep him off camera, and deliver the real prognosis (we don't know, so we act to reduce as much harm as possible). And the real treatment - there's no point worrying about numbers and measures - worry about what you are doing. In my view that won't be accepted widely until the govt stops sending out changing strategies, changing forecasts, disorganised and conflicting messages, missing targets, appearing to act in a generally disorganised manner. Boris and co are chummy sorts - this is just not the time for that. Brexit was a validation for people's feelings and beliefs, and he was good at that. Brexit arguments were often 'what's the worse that could happen?' and referred to doomsayers. This is the dichotomy that the public will deal with. Kidding themselves it's ok, or plunging into despair. It's totally unsuitable for the current situation. You don't make things better by worrying about your illness or treatment. Any good doctor knows that, and will not let it happen. They know you are out of your depth and wasting your time. They put on a front, say very little, and push you out the door telling you not to let it happen again. And we trust them because they are so good at it, and so much more informed and decisive than we are. That's the govt style that is required now. Your feelings, fears, projections and all of that are not at all relevant when it comes to this virus. To do that, they have to smarten up, stop wasting time, stop leaving themselves open to criticism, and act fast and decisively.
