COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[BlueAnorak]

On the statistics thing, If the death rate only ends up being around 1% of those showing symptoms (as predicted by ICL) then the real new cases figure in the UK is 500% more than that being recorded.

 

[Cheesy]

Sorry for your loss pal

Cheers. I didn't know her, but this has really brought home the effect of this thing.

Even if she didn't die with COVID-19, due to her symptoms she still died alone. Husband & kids not allowed to see her and most of the family (including my wife) not being able to pay respects at her funeral.

So very sad :-(

 

[SWP's back]

Note this is not Breaking News. This is old news from Friday but it could be key. Ignored by British media.

Rapid testing kits (for the virus - not the antibodies) are now becoming available (5 minutes for a positive, 13 minutes for a negative). Roll them out across the world. Get them into the hospitals first. Over 10% of infections are in the hospitals.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/27/us/15-minute-coronavirus-test/index.html

The Spanish government has ordered 1 million https://www.euractiv.com/section/all/short_news/madrid-distribution-of-rapid-testing-kits/. Now they I suspect could be using a different version / technology.

Zero coverage in the British press. This is key. Imagine what you could do if you had a fast reliable test. Get them to the hospitals, thereafter use them to clear hotspots like New York from the centre out etc. So much scope. There must be some kind of problem or snag. Supply?

It’s ignored as the U.K. press covered the fifteen minute antibody test being available (3.5m of them) for front line staff within days.

Not sure what saving ten minutes makes and why you keep repeating yourself?

 

[fulabeer]

Didn’t a lot of people go on a big bender a week last Friday, in the knowledge that the pubs were going to close down that night. They might unleash the peak of the virus so maybe cases would be expected to continue to rise sharply until the coming Friday, 3rd April.

It was stupidity announcing that pubs could trade until the end of the day.
It should have announced in the morning, with immediate effect. (and enforced with police checks)

 

[hgblue]

I agree about the WHO. As to whether China's numbers are reliable, who knows. But they would have to be out by a factor of more than 10x - not just a bit out - for them to have not fared better than the rest of the planet.

If you believe the Chinese figures I’ve got a castle in Scotland to sell you ;)

 

[Deleted member 77198]

An interesting stat: More people died from this yesterday than have died from in in China in total.

Wow. Every single day from now on, that will continue to be the case and given the world is nowhere near the peak, I imagine it will be the case for months.

Interesting (and deeply saddening) but so what? Well if it only carries on like this for a couple of months, that would the death count outside of China is more than 60x that of China itself. Probably much more, depending on how high the world daily death rate gets.

And yet China accounts for 1/6th of the world's population. It only goes to show how the world has dropped the ball on this. A country with 1/6th of the world population is going to end up with less than 1/60th of the deaths. My guess is a much smaller fraction indeed - maybe 1/600th.

China showed us how best to respond with an immediate lockdown and severe travel restrictions in their own country. But we - not just here in the UK but pretty much everywhere else - waited too long and allowed people to freely move around whilst the virus was silently permeating the population. And we will get to see the results of that play out every day for the next few months.

China’s numbers are absolute bollocks! Even the Chinese think so.

 

[goatersnipple]

China’s numbers are absolute bollocks! Even the Chinese think so.

I dont do.
Number 15 is always special curry at china house near me

 

[BlueAnorak]

I think that's very optimistic. We're on day 17 now in Spain and cases still rose yesterday after appearing to peak. And our lock down is a lot tighter and is getting even tighter now.

I think there's a least another 8/9 days of it growing in UK, 7 days of fluctuating around peak and then the numbers might start to fall. They're expecting numbers to start falling here around the 4/5th of April.

I do too, but I guess it depends on the effects of previous measures before we got to isolation.

 

[jay_mcfc]

I do too, but I guess it depends on the effects of previous measures before we got to isolation.

Judging by Cheltenham, Liverpool and the nationwide piss up a week last Friday I'd say it won't make too much difference.

 

[fulabeer]

On the statistics thing, If the death rate only ends up being around 1% of those showing symptoms (as predicted by ICL) then the real new cases figure in the UK is 500% more than that being recorded.

My 84 year old mother in law went shopping last friday. She had already been told to isolate before the official ban. But old people being old people eh.
6 days later she is showing all the symptoms. We called 111 yesterday, as she is starting to go down hill.
Their response was to monitor her, and only call back if she is struggling to breath.
So we don't know if she has it or something else. Either way she is not on the official figures.