COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[BlueAnorak]

I’ve been PM’ing a poster on here and he’s just shared a video with me of a Korean Doctor. In the video he states immunity isn’t guaranteed and there’ve seen numbers of people coming back with symptoms, after already having it and recovering days earlier.

Does anyone know more?

This is potentially awful for European strategy.

More likely that there are two major distinct typess of the virus (S and L). Havng imunity to S (the milder type) does not guarantee immunity to L (the more severe type). Though having had S does give your body a better start to fight L. Much like the Common Cold - if you and your ancestors had never encountered a common cold virus it would be lethal.
https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/c...l-type-strain-affecting-70-per-cent-of-cases/
Incidently, nearly a month later, we now know there are 8 strains of Coronavirus
https://nextstrain.org/ncov

 

[AlgarveBlu]

What’s not acceptable is lying to other countries about this kind of thing and lying to the WHO.

the shincheonji church in south korea was responsible for around 2,000 cases all spread from one individual who had symptoms but attended the church[/QUOTE]

Were they observing social distancing at the time and restricting human contact? I may be wrong but I thought these infections were picked up in a conventional manner where you would expect it to happen in a large gathering.

 

[domalino]

I’ve been PM’ing a poster on here and he’s just shared a video with me of a Korean Doctor. In the video he states immunity isn’t guaranteed and there’ve seen numbers of people coming back with symptoms, after already having it and recovering days earlier.

Does anyone know more?

This is potentially awful for European strategy.

The fact he's talking about people coming back with symptoms within days suggests very strongly that they were just not fully over the virus when discharged, which ties in with the wavey nature of the illness.

If a lot of people were coming back 6+ weeks later with the same severity of symtoms then it would point to re-infection, but this doesn't.

 

[Vic]

More likely that there are two major distinct typess of the virus (S and L) and 8 strains in total. Havng imunity to S (the milder type) does not guarantee immunity to L (the more severe type). Though having had S does give your body a better start to fight L. Much like the Common Cold - if you and your ancestors had never encountered a common cold
virus it would be lethal.
https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/c...l-type-strain-affecting-70-per-cent-of-cases/

The worry would be if it's assumed that if you've had it you can't infect anyone else.

 

[Ban-jani]

I hope you're never on a jury.

Witnesses is one of the biggest pieces of evidence in any trial. If you can get them.

What you’re essentially doing is believing China over their neighbours in Taiwan and Japan.

Presuming that China for an entire month couldn’t conclude it was passed between humans.

You’re discarding what Taiwan have presented, despite them being proven right.

Taiwan’s Doctors having correspondence with their colleagues in China, with it being communicated by witnesses that it was being passed H2H is evidence, whether you deny it or not.

Well done on responding to my lengthy post with one snide and incorrect line.

 

[Ban-jani]

The fact he's talking about people coming back with symptoms within days suggests very strongly that they were just not fully over the virus when discharged, which ties in with the wavey nature of the illness.

If a lot of people were coming back 6+ weeks later with the same severity of symtoms then it would point to re-infection, but this doesn't.

Hopefully that’s true.

 

[domalino]

More likely that there are two major distinct typess of the virus (S and L). Havng imunity to S (the milder type) does not guarantee immunity to L (the more severe type). Though having had S does give your body a better start to fight L. Much like the Common Cold - if you and your ancestors had never encountered a common cold virus it would be lethal.
https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/c...l-type-strain-affecting-70-per-cent-of-cases/
Incidently, nearly a month later, we now know there are 8 strains of Coronavirus
https://nextstrain.org/ncov

The strong strain/ weak strain talk has massively decreased over the past month, I would not hold much credence in it anymore and think it was mostly an attempt to understand why some people had no symptoms and others were dying.

It's seems much more likely now that SARSCOVID19 is just mutating into weaker forms as per most viruses.

 

[BlueAnorak]

The worry would be if it's assumed that if you've had it you can't infect anyone else.

Evidence is now emerging that you can still be infectious for up to 8 days after your last symptoms so the isolation period probably needs to be adjusted accordingly.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

I presume this choir were singing, I presume the we’re using their mouths. I also presume they were breathing.

Yes obviously :-) and I also assumed the projectiles whilst singing were propelled further; but again it's down to the science here in terms of what social distancing metrics they were using which has real connotations for the future when we get out to phase 2 i.e airplane and general transport travel, distances in office space etc. This has always been about the science of the virus for me in terms of determining future policy.

 

[i8rags]

Anyone else skipping the vic, Ben-jani stand-off.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

Obvious who's responsible there. "A few helped themselves to mandarins that had been put out on a table in back."

Good effort but I'm not biting ;-) Got a mandarin tree in the garden which is the beginning and end of my family's food supply strategy throughout the crisis.

 

[yerwot?]

The Coronavirus is a distant relative of the common cold so I would say the aerosol is highly like to hang around in the air for a while.
Another reason to enforce the wearing of masks if you have to be closer than 6 feet from someone else.

Common knowledge in hazmat circles that a mask without goggles only protects others. The eye socket is a conduit to the sinus mucous membrane and therefore the respiratory tract to the lungs
The virus on door-handles/etc transits to the eye socket when people then touch their face, the aerosol borne virus makes it's own way to the moisture-laden eye balls. Wearing gloves without visor/goggles is only doing half the job. Many people have not been made aware of how eyes are a potential source of infection: that needs addressing asap

 

[TFC]

Is there any sense at all in the rationale that this will 'pass' in a matter of weeks? I can see us social distancing for quite some time which of course is shit, but as soon as they open up theme parks and the like again, unless there is a vaccine, surely all it takes is one infected to start the cycle all over again?

 

[BlueAnorak]

i think we've moved on from this. Here is the whole clade:
https://nextstrain.org/ncov?l=radial&m=div

Yes. I posted that first on here. 8 stains now and mutating all the time.
Sadly, if the mutations are on the outer shell spikes (like the common cold) there may never be an effective vaccine for this bug.

 

[Vic]

Witnesses is one of the biggest pieces of evidence in any trial. If you can get them.

What you’re essentially doing is believing China over their neighbours in Taiwan and Japan.

Presuming that China for an entire month couldn’t conclude it was passed between humans.

You’re discarding what Taiwan have presented, despite them being proven right.

Taiwan’s Doctors having correspondence with their colleagues in China, with it being communicated by witnesses that it was being passed H2H is evidence, whether you deny it or not.

Well done on responding to my lengthy post with one snide and incorrect line.

"Now, Mr Jani, you say there is correspondence between doctors in Taiwan and Wuhan. Have you seen this correspondence or is it hearsay?"

"Have you got anything contemporaneous to suggest that the Taiwanese Centres for Disease Control knew more than they were putting in official press releases?"

I couldn't be bothered dismembering your argument again hence the brevity. How can "I hope you're never on a jury" possibly be incorrect?

 

[BlueHammer85]

Is there any sense at all in the rationale that this will 'pass' in a matter of weeks? I can see us social distancing for quite some time which of course is shit, but as soon as they open up theme parks and the like again, unless there is a vaccine, surely all it takes is one infected to start the cycle all over again?

For now it's all about ensuring our NHS isn't over burdened to the point of collapse and just seeing where we are in a few weeks

 

[BlueAnorak]

Yes. I posted that first on here. 8 stains now and mutating all the time.
Sadly, if the mutations are on the outer shell spikes (like the common cold) there may never be an effective vaccine for this bug.

Which means blood donations from those with antigens is going to be ubber important to establish herd immunity. Extract the plasma and inject into those who haven't had the illness.

 

[Vic]

Anyone else skipping the vic, Ben-jani stand-off.

I'd love to!

 

[bluemoon32]

Tomorrow’s debate. At the moment everyone is congratulating the government for handing out all this free money. Well at some stage the bill for this is landing on the mat, and whose going to pay?

Us mugs on PAYE

 

[domalino]

Is there any sense at all in the rationale that this will 'pass' in a matter of weeks? I can see us social distancing for quite some time which of course is shit, but as soon as they open up theme parks and the like again, unless there is a vaccine, surely all it takes is one infected to start the cycle all over again?

If we are in this lockdown/isolation for about a month then it should almost die out - everyone with the virus will have either recovered or..not.

And then in theory if you have some of the restrictions still in place like no school, and people really adhere to the principles of staying at home if anyone gets sick in their household, you can get on top of and smother any outbreaks as they occur.

That will eventually fail, and we will probably be back in lockdown, but it might give us a month of semi-normality that keeps everyone sane.

The ICL model had a system where you lifted controls or put them back in place based on the number of new intensive care cases per week across the country. Once it gets to a certain point, you lock down again and then ride out the wave that comes post-lockdown.

Eventually through doing that we'll treat a lot of people in good (ie not overflowing) hospital conditions and kill time before effective treatments or vaccines.