COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Scotland had its highest winter deaths for 18 years - this had been around a lot longer than a few weeks i am sure. The death rate will continue to rise for two more weeks.
You were also sure this was just a bit of Flu and we’d have forgotten about it come May.

This hasn’t been around for longer than the country has known about it or ICU admissions would have been through the roof back in December and January and February.

I’d say you’re correct that there’s another couple of weeks of rises before the effects of the lock down are felt on the daily deaths.
 
there was a very good article on CNN about possible timestamp of the vaccine. 've read it last night, but can't find it now. Anyway, the usual timestamp of vaccine going public is 4-5 years at least. 18 months that have been mentioned about this one is extremely optimistic and would mean cutting lot of usual procedures and would certainly compromise the process safety.

One of the things USA is planning to do to speed it up is to advice companies to gamble financially and start production before all clinical trials are finished, so when approval is done, the vaccines should already be ready to ship.
 
Starting phase one trials in sept,there is 1000' of people in clinical trials,that takes a long time,it says some available for emergency use early next year,that is not the same as having it for widespread use,i will find something about the emergency use in a bit
The report actually says 'It anticipates the first batches of the COVID-19 vaccine to be available for emergency use authorisation in early 2021'. Not the same as emergency use
 
That will be the first batch, which you’d hope and expect would be for frontline health workers. Does anyone know what the timescales usually are from producing the initial batches to ramping it up so that it’s readily available for all? How many more months after first starting production?

Sorry, but the moment I now hear 'ramping something up', my confidence just drains. At current global 'ramping up' levels, we should all be good to go around early 2025...
 
Is that from the Worldometer site? Its been that way for a week. Yet thousands have died since. I don't quite understand that at all.

EDIT: Apologies, its the serious cases hat has been at 163 since 25/03/20. Yet thousands have died who mustn't have been serious cases?
Worldometer only updates things that sources provide. The government website only provides regular updates of deaths and cases.
 
Expect a hell of a lot more.

575,000 died of swine flu worldwide in 2009 and 2010. Even that figure would only be early June by the time we surpass it. By the end of the year, who knows where we’ll stand...
Not sure you’re right with that number mate:

https://www.livescience.com/41539-2009-swine-flu-death-toll-higher.html

That’s saying 203,000.



The WHO say only 18,500:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...-10-times-more-deadly-than-previously-thought

Fuck knows which number is correct.
 
Scotland had its highest winter deaths for 18 years - this had been around a lot longer than a few weeks i am sure. The death rate will continue to rise for two more weeks.

Not sure if it’s still true but the general standard of health in Scotland was pretty poor in the 1980s and 90s. I know a lot of work was being done to target heart attack rates etc which were very high.. and were linked to higher than average alcohol consumption etc.
 
50-59 years old - 1.3%
40-49 years old - 0.4%
30-39 years old - 0.2%
20-29 years old - 0.2%
10-19 years old - 0.2%
0-9 years old - no fatalities

mortality rate a lot higher above 60
 
The report actually says 'It anticipates the first batches of the COVID-19 vaccine to be available for emergency use authorisation in early 2021'. Not the same as emergency use
Bit of confusion but it won't be ready for widespread use for a long time yet imo
"We are moving on an accelerated timeline toward Phase 1 human clinical trials at the latest by September 2020 and, supported by the global production capability that we are scaling up in parallel to this testing, we expect a vaccine could be ready for emergency use in early 2021," said Paul Stoffels, J&J's chief scientific officer, in a statement
 
Thats the very high end estimate from the CDC.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

"fter the peak of illness during the second wave had come and gone in the United States. From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated."

Any idea why it only took around 6 months to generate a vaccine for swine flu back in 2009? I don't even remember being offered it..
 
Is that from the Worldometer site? Its been that way for a week. Yet thousands have died since. I don't quite understand that at all.

EDIT: Apologies, its the serious cases hat has been at 163 since 25/03/20. Yet thousands have died who mustn't have been serious cases?
The COVID Visualiser says the same thing
https://www.covidvisualizer.com/

I just think we must think it’s impossible to keep on top of those who have recovered because we haven’t been testing anyway, but even those who’ve been tested and been sent home to recover they won’t know whether these people have still got it or recovered.
 
Something baffling me. The government keeps on saying everyone stay home, yet flights carrying people from infected areas are still coming into the country and the passengers just allowed in with no checks. This surely just makes a mockery of the policy?
One of the great mysteries that I cannot fathom. In addition, why is our rail network not closed to anyone except NHS staff / absolute key workers (not my fucking window cleaner who came sauntering up the drive today and got given a chamois-sized fucking off)? There are 8 trains from Euston to Piccadilly this evening/tonight. Madness.
 
Not yet reached Spains peak, the estimate was we’d peak around 5th April so 4 days which may be Spain levels , we can only hope it’s a shorter peak than Spain and Italy.
1 week ago I said we'd hit 1,000 deaths per day within the next fortnight. Present trajectory has us hitting that on Monday.

Sadly, a lot sooner if the last 2 days' shocking figures were to continue.
 
Any idea why it only took around 6 months to generate a vaccine for swine flu back in 2009? I don't even remember being offered it..
I think because it was an influenza virus we already had most of its genome from our other flu vaccines as we know flu only changes slightly with each new strain.

Whereas this is a Coronavirus and as we know from the common cold (that was known as Human Coronavirus before December), it changes a lot with each new strain, so it’s going to be harder to come up with a vaccine for this. Especially with it being novel to humans.
 
Scotland had its highest winter deaths for 18 years - this had been around a lot longer than a few weeks i am sure. The death rate will continue to rise for two more weeks.
We’re in Scotland and our son had many of the symptoms in January, the only thing stopping us thinking he had it is it was it was early January seems too early and I didn’t get it, though my wife had a cough. Not sure he hasn’t had it, he had the cough, headaches, fever, and loss of taste.
 
50-59 years old - 1.3%
40-49 years old - 0.4%
30-39 years old - 0.2%
20-29 years old - 0.2%
10-19 years old - 0.2%
0-9 years old - no fatalities

mortality rate a lot higher above 60
I’m in the 0.2% range.

Seems pretty small odds. Having said that, if you offered me one of a bag of 500 wine gums and said that 1 of them was full of cyanide and would kill me, if still probably pass on having one.

Edit. Don’t forget the numbers above assume that ALL people that currently have Covid-19 survive.
 
Not sure you’re right with that number mate:

https://www.livescience.com/41539-2009-swine-flu-death-toll-higher.html

That’s saying 203,000.



The WHO say only 18,500:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...-10-times-more-deadly-than-previously-thought

Fuck knows which number is correct.
A bit like this current one with lots of countries giving some very questionable numbers, I suppose some will have gone of estimates and others will have gone with “official” released figures.

I got mine from the top end of the CDC figures.
 
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