COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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karen7 said:
Aims for 100,000 test a day by the end of april across all five pillars of his plan

Every nhs worker will get a covid test and their families,rolled out from critical care staff first,getting staff back to work if the dont have the virus

Antibody tests are done 28 days after infection and those tests are to come
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Yes noticed Peston steered clear of the antibody testing todat.
 
jay_mcfc said:
13/14 days since then. I think it will be 2/3 weeks until the full effect will be seen because it won’t be so much the people out that will be hospitalized but the people they were in contact with in the following days and weeks.
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Thought it was 19days,if so it will be 5days after tomorrow (2wks since the piss up)
 
Chippy_boy said:
FWIW I've been doing a bit of messing with numbers. I reckon we are somewhere along this sort of path:



If I am right that means we'll be through this crap by around mid May. And at that point we can start to ease off on the lock-down (not abandon it) and get into widespread testing, tracing and isolating whilst the country slowly gets back to normal.

Of course this is only a projection, but based on us being on a similar path to Italy. Our peak could be lower, or higher, but this seems like a reasonable guess at this point. The green dots are actuals, BTW.
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How many total deaths to that convert to?
I get about 28/30k, think if that's all that'd be a great result from where we are now.
 
Now i know we are having to build a diagnostic industry from a low base i have more sympathy with the testing issue,sounds like all the big companies are doing their bit

We are currently doing fine capacity wise,plenty of spare beds available
 
Postman Pep said:
Suggests to me that local NHS trusts were suffering budget constraints as well as supply chain issues in sourcing PPE ? If this is so significant why wasn't it done sooner?
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NHS and PHE bureaucracy is the main cause.
It is mind numbingly dreadful and demands statistical perfection. Not good if you're fighting a war.
The government should have deployed military observers to all layers of this bureaucracy to identify what was being done where and when and to identify where bottle necks are, so senior government officials could make tactical and strategic tweaks to improve things
Big fucking mistake. Probably the only really big one that has been made.
 
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Chippy_boy said:
FWIW I've been doing a bit of messing with numbers. I reckon we are somewhere along this sort of path:



If I am right that means we'll be through this crap by around mid May. And at that point we can start to ease off on the lock-down (not abandon it) and get into widespread testing, tracing and isolating whilst the country slowly gets back to normal.

Of course this is only a projection, but based on us being on a similar path to Italy. Our peak could be lower, or higher, but this seems like a reasonable guess at this point. The green dots are actuals, BTW.
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It doesn't explain why in the north west we've been told our peak may not be till May. I suppose if we and other regions are lagging behind London it could flatten the peak but the downward curve would be less steep. (I'm not good with graphs....)
 
Would it not be an idea for the journo's to bring spare questions had the same ones 3 or 4 times tonight.
 
Blue Maverick said:
On average 1400 a day die in the U.K., it would be interesting to see how many are actually dying and how that adds to the figures, many maybe would’ve died anyway. I know our aim is to slow death rates as this would be astronomical if we didn’t stay at home.
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https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-all-cause-mortality-surveillance-2019-to-2020

Has weekly stars here. Excess deaths in over 65s than usually expected this week in England, rest of UK in line with normal. Every other week has been normal numbers but it's only really this week we are seeing big numbers.
 
Don't know what drugs will work,uk patients in clinical trials,vaccine a way off

Still learning about the virus,some immunity they think but not sure how much or how long

There is evidence people who have the virus are spreading it to less people because of social distancing,must stay at home or away from people if you are outside

Don't know how long lockdown is for

Community testing timing will depend on how the tests develop

Swab test for the virus is more complicated to make

Antibody is blood tests,working with various compamies

Looking at immunity passports eventually but the science on immunity is ongoing
 
Chippy_boy said:
The age distribution of those deaths will be interesting as well.

The reality is 500,000 people die every year in the UK (I think - if my memory serves me correctly). But the vast majority of them die of old age or illnesses associated with it. But I gather from the COVID-19 stats there are many deaths of people under 60.
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Mortality rate below aged 60 is very low. Not to say any death shouldn’t be taken as a shock from this virus.
 
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