COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Ardwick Green Blue]

Though it seems a million miles off at the moment it could be that this goes down rapidly to a manageable level quite quickly. Clearly there are hundreds of thousands if not millions of people currently who have it or have had it. Once we are over this huge number of cases and most people have recovered then it should be a far easier task to monitor and isolate cases. Obviously there will still be elements of social distancing and so on but life will begin to get back to something like normality.

This may be very optimistic but it is crucial if we want to emerge with a functioning economy.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

Nonsense.
The curve will be a symmetrical curve not a cliff face.

 

[domalino]

Nonsense.
The curve will be a symmetrical curve not a cliff face.

No, it shouldn't be symmetrical.

 

[Ardwick Green Blue]

Nonsense.
The curve will be a symmetrical curve not a cliff face.

I assume that was in reply to my comment?

Let's see as at a certain point a virus has nowhere to go. The key part is 'a manageable' level as it won't completely disappear until everyone has had it or there is a vaccine.

 

[St.Pauli support]

Give me 3 more days of data and I might.
Meanwhile here is the same graph with more countries on it. Maybe you can see a trend.........

Isn't your trajectory just describing the corona specific reproduction number R?

In the beginning it's R0 (base reproduction number),
when immune recoveries appear it's Rt (net reproduction number),
and it's the aim to bring Rt below 1.

The difference in deaths per country has a variety of obvious reasons.

 

[kaz7]

Whilst on the face of it, that may be worrying (as to how many may need ICU), the plus part is that it seems that no one will do with ventilator support that needs it. What happened in Italy and Spain with 60+ people having theirs taken off them for younger patients whilst sedated was beyond words, if understandable.

The BMA put out something yesterday about when ventilators are in short supply then they may have to take stable patients off and give them to patients with the highest expectation of recovery,likewise a GP practice sent letters out to their old and infirm patients talking about them not getting critical care beds and suggesting they do a DNR form,hopefully things won't get that bad

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1382

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...terminally-ill-patients-sign-DNR-notices.html

 

[give it to gordon]

Only last night our streets stood clapping our NHS than this morning on our local news website we read this very sad news. These people are so brave

https://theisleofthanetnews.com/202...e-orourke-following-tragic-coronavirus-death/

 

[Nellies left peg]

The BMA put out something yesterday about when ventilators are in short supply then they may have to take stable patients off and give them to patients with the highest expectation of recovery,likewise a GP practice sent letters out to their old and infirm patients talking about them not getting critical care beds and suggesting they do a DNR form,hopefully things won't get that bad

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1382

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...terminally-ill-patients-sign-DNR-notices.html

You may have already answered this Kaz., but how soon after wembley did your symptoms start. I felt shit last week but haven't got any worse than a runny nose and cough since then. Thanks

 

[bluemonkey71]

Some People in my China office are back in work. Not sure they know something we don’t.

 

[Djibrilshairdo]

This might just encourage me to go out and miss it, sure it wil comfort some though

QE11 is coming on the box on Sunday just prior to Antiques Roadshow btw to tell us due to the lockdown and not going out much, she will be transferring her £100M + sovereign grant to the NHS for the mutha of all Xmas parties before telling the nation she will be opening the grounds of Balmoral and Sandringham for free camping for all.

 

[kaz7]

You may have already answered this Kaz., but how soon after wembley did your symptoms start. I felt shit last week but haven't got any worse than a runny nose and cough since then. Thanks

3 days,i think 2-21 days is the range,sounds like you were just outside that?

 

[St.Pauli support]

So what is the most obvious limit to number of deaths?

Winning the race of ventulator bed capacity vs critical cases,
or simply how have we been prepared for this pandemic in hardware and staff,
also how early did we avoid person to person density (smear infection appears to be negligable).

What effect do the various measures taken in different countries have on R0?

None, it's virus specific (if we have only 1 corona strain mainly, or different strains are similar in R0).
Effects can show in Rt, that's what we hope for and begin to see, and certainly will.

We are learning infection details right now and ongoing and will be able to adapt our behaviour,
well at least we should...

 

[Nellies left peg]

3 days,i think 2-21 days is the range,sounds like you were just outside that?

Yes I think so the average is about 5 or so days I think. Have been locked in with the missus for10 days now but like I think I told you we don't live in a particularly big place and it's eerily quiet apart from 8pm on thursdays

 

[Nellies left peg]

QE11 is coming on the box on Sunday just prior to Antiques Roadshow btw to tell us due to the lockdown and not going out much, she will be transferring her £100M + sovereign grant to the NHS for the mutha of all Xmas parties before telling the nation she will be opening the grounds of Balmoral and Sandringham for free camping for all.

Are we allowed to take a picnic?

 

[Djibrilshairdo]

Are we allowed to take a picnic?

Got for it. Phil the Greek has never bagged a scotch egg with his Purdey.

 

[Ardwick Green Blue]

QE11 is coming on the box on Sunday just prior to Antiques Roadshow btw to tell us due to the lockdown and not going out much, she will be transferring her £100M + sovereign grant to the NHS for the mutha of all Xmas parties before telling the nation she will be opening the grounds of Balmoral and Sandringham for free camping for all.

This isn't the politics sub-forum. I'd suggest posting this shite in there or, better still, don't bother at all.

 

[jay_mcfc]

The boxer Anthony Yarde lost his dad to covid-19 a week ago and today he lost his nan. Tragic.

 

[kaz7]

The UK's first death from coronavirus happened almost one week earlier than previously thought, newly released data has revealed.

Crucial details unveiled by NHS England for the first time indicate the earliest fatality of someone who had tested positive for COVID-19 was 28 February, nearly seven days before a death was announced.

This was among other inconsistencies now uncovered in official coronavirus figures previously published by UK-wide authorities

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...arlier-than-thought-nhs-data-reveals-11967999

 

[denislawsbackheel]

I assume that was in reply to my comment?

Let's see as at a certain point a virus has nowhere to go. The key part is 'a manageable' level as it won't completely disappear until everyone has had it or there is a vaccine.

this virus is going to have a repeated wave with each peak slightly lower than the last over a couple of years.

 

[Ardwick Green Blue]

this virus is going to have a repeated wave with each peak slightly lower than the last over a couple of years.

I hope & believe you are totally wrong as if that will be the outcome then we'll all be grubbing for potatoes in the countryside to survive.

A more balanced view is that it will be contained until an effective vaccine is rolled out.