COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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spanishblue said:
Think it going to be a long haul mate we have just been told the 25 April and I can see that being extended : (
Take care
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It will be interesting how Spain and Italy go from here. As the two european countries that seem to be plateauing first. The drop off in cases / deaths may be a trajectory the rest of us will follow. We can only hope it’s a fairly steep one and this extension is your last one before at least some loosening.
 
Marvin said:
Neil Ferguson, one of the government's advisers said on Radio 4 that 'I'm hopeful that in a few weeks' time we will be able to move to a regime which - will not be normal life, let me emphasize that - but will be somewhat more relaxed in terms of social-distancing and the economy but rely more on testing.'

mo, if mass testing and tracing comes on line, then the lockdown will be eased but it might take 3 weeks or so for that to happen.

Medium term, and this is speculative, I think the American government may go for an emergency use authorisation for a vaccine by the FDA. I was wondering why governments can't bypass their own rules regarding vaccine development and there already seems to be provision for this in the USA and in the EU but this is just based on my own research as interpretation of 'emergency use authorisation'. Other people might like to look at it, and see what they think. Media seems to think that even if we have a working vaccine it still needs to go through very lengthy trials. I am wondering if it's labelled as a pandemic and it goes through Phase II trials, they maybe able to authorise its use.

If testing has it under control then this wont be needed but the next thing to worry about are places like India and Indonesia. Potentially that's catastrophic and on another scale from what we have seen.

Potentially good news is that tests in Iceland have shown that at least 50% of infected people are asymptomatic which has been hinted at before. That has good and bad implications, but a good implication is that immunity will be higher than we think it is.

All these comments are just opinions not facts!
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Thanks Marvin, missed your detailed reports / comments and the graphs.
 
karen7 said:
Herd immunity was getting 60% of the population infected and recovered,that is why the plan didnt involve stopping mass gatherings,it was football getting infected and shutting down of its own accord that forced their hand,the medics even said you cant catch it at a football game without mentioning the whole travelling,pubs etc,it was stupid that imo and experience,there was no locking down of the vulnerable groups till a couple of weeks ago,that says to me it was survival of the fittest which was the initial plan
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I doubt very much the plan was to allow elderly and vulnerable people to die,
 
Marvin said:
Neil Ferguson, one of the government's advisers said on Radio 4 that 'I'm hopeful that in a few weeks' time we will be able to move to a regime which - will not be normal life, let me emphasize that - but will be somewhat more relaxed in terms of social-distancing and the economy but rely more on testing.'

mo, if mass testing and tracing comes on line, then the lockdown will be eased but it might take 3 weeks or so for that to happen.

Medium term, and this is speculative, I think the American government may go for an emergency use authorisation for a vaccine by the FDA. I was wondering why governments can't bypass their own rules regarding vaccine development and there already seems to be provision for this in the USA and in the EU but this is just based on my own research as interpretation of 'emergency use authorisation'. Other people might like to look at it, and see what they think. Media seems to think that even if we have a working vaccine it still needs to go through very lengthy trials. I am wondering if it's labelled as a pandemic and it goes through Phase II trials, they maybe able to authorise its use.

If testing has it under control then this wont be needed but the next thing to worry about are places like India and Indonesia. Potentially that's catastrophic and on another scale from what we have seen.

Potentially good news is that tests in Iceland have shown that at least 50% of infected people are asymptomatic which has been hinted at before. That has good and bad implications, but a good implication is that immunity will be higher than we think it is.

All these comments are just opinions not facts!
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Neil Ferguson thought we’d get away with deaths being under 5k so I wouldn’t take too much notice of what he says.....
 
Bazzmand Show said:
People are allowed outside mate..... I've just done a 20 mile ride around London and was on the lookout for people being dickheads and for the most part people were in maximum pairs of 2, and keeping distance.
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i dont think you should be doing that,we are told to stay NEAR our homes,if you got knocked o ff and ended up in hospital you are taking up a bed,stop it please
 
blueparrot said:
It will be interesting how Spain and Italy go from here. As the two european countries that seem to be plateauing first. The drop off in cases / deaths may be a trajectory the rest of us will follow. We can only hope it’s a fairly steep one and this extension is your last one before at least some loosening.
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As I understand after three weeks we have had we have another three after that the plan is to gradually open things up
Going for walks in pairs same household
Ride your bike and alike
But it all depends on the next three weeks I think today we have turned the corner personally I think this fuker will linger untill a vaccine
 
Gelsons Dad said:
I haven't read the article yet but from the quote all i can say is err.... no. The reason is simply that you have tested many more people with mild symptoms.
Testing allows isolation but testing doesn't reduce the % of infected that die. The quality of health care does that. Not the number of tests.
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It reduces the number of people infected and therefore reduces the number of deaths.

Come back when you've read the article.
 
hgblue said:
I doubt very much the plan was to allow elderly and vulnerable people to die,
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Herd immunity exposes everybody,vulnerable and elderly still go to football games to name one thing where mass gatherings were allowed,i am sure every model they were given had losers in it,if they had locked down those groups from the start i would have seen the reason,the rest get the herd immunity but they didn't
 
Rammy Blue said:
Neil Ferguson thought we’d get away with deaths being under 5k so I wouldn’t take too much notice of what he says.....
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Is this the most bluemoon post ever? Neil Ferguson is quite possible the foremost and most revered epidemiologist in the world. He's not just being asked to spearhead Britain's modelling, but his team at ICL also helped half a dozen other governments and his code is being packaged by Microsoft and sent to every country in the world for them to base their response and further research on.

Or as the NY Times referred to him -

Imperial College has advised the government on its response to previous epidemics, including SARS, avian flu and swine flu. With ties to the World Health Organization and a team of 50 scientists, led by a prominent epidemiologist, Neil Ferguson, Imperial is treated as a sort of gold standard, its mathematical models feeding directly into government policies.​


But he predicted we might get under 6,000 deaths and now we might not, so Rammy Blue and Worzel Gummidge think he's not worth listening to...
 
domalino said:
Is this the most bluemoon post ever? Neil Ferguson is quite possible the foremost and most revered epidemiologist in the world. He's not just being asked to spearhead Britain's modelling, but his team at ICL also helped half a dozen other governments and his code is being packaged by Microsoft and sent to every country in the world for them to base their response and further research on.


But he predicted we might get under 6,000 deaths and now we might not, so Rammy Blue and Worzel Gummidge think he's not worth listening to...
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Hahaha, surprise surprise that you pop your head up. Knew if I threw that reply out you’d be on it like a fly on shit.

You didn’t disappoint, lol.
 
domalino said:
Is this the most bluemoon post ever? Neil Ferguson is quite possible the foremost and most revered epidemiologist in the world. He's not just being asked to spearhead Britain's modelling, but his team at ICL also helped half a dozen other governments and his code is being packaged by Microsoft and sent to every country in the world for them to base their response and further research on.


But he predicted we might get under 6,000 deaths and now we might not, so Rammy Blue and Worzel Gummidge think he's not worth listening to...
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Figure of 5700 didn't come from him.
 
Gelsons Dad said:
Testing allows isolation but testing doesn't reduce the % of infected that die. The quality of health care does that. Not the number of tests.
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That’s not remotely true.

If we are only testing hospitalised cases and they are testing anyone with symptoms or asymptomatic cases, then of course our CFR is going to be higher.

Therefore going back to your post, we may have similar numbers of “officially confirmed” cases, but we may, in reality, have ten times the number of infected citizens. Therefore I can only assume you didn’t think your post through in relation to the post you quoted.
 
Rammy Blue said:
Hahaha, surprise surprise that you pop your head up. Knew if I threw that reply out you’d be on it like a fly on shit.

You didn’t disappoint, lol.
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Laughing at the anti-intellectuals on here who think they know better than the best people in the world in their field is something of a past time.
 
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