COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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meltonblue said:
The massive shutdown that still isn’t the same as in other countries and could and might yet go further, that one? No, well aware of it ;) My point was more ICU capacity is not as critical as limiting the spread. Like I said, hopefully we’ve done enough.
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A complete lockdown doesn't really help us at all. If we cut off all new cases then great, deaths would stop, but we'd all be locked in our homes with no trips outside to exercise or walk the dog or shop (online deliveries only) for the next 18 months which clearly isn't tenable or possible. I think The Times had an epidemiologist writing today who just called it treading water. Hence all the new 'exit strategy' talk.

The only real way through this is for a lot of people to get it, but at a slow enough rate that everyone gets proper medical treatment and the best chance of beating it, the PPE supply lines are not overrun and really shielding those who are at real risk of dying.

We'll know a lot more when the German random test results come in and we understand the very mild/asymptomatic % better.
 
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domalino said:
A complete lockdown doesn't really help us at all. If we cut off all new cases then great, deaths would stop, but we'd all be locked in our homes with no trips outside to exercise or walk the dog or shop (online deliveries only) for the next 18 months which clearly isn't tenable or possible. I think The Times had an epidemiologist writing today who just called it treading water.

The only real way through this is for a lot of people to get it, but at a slow enough rate that everyone gets proper medical treatment and the best chance of beating it, and really shielding those who are at real risk of dying.

We'll know a lot more when the German random test results come in and we understand the very mild/asymptomatic % better.
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Which is fine, that’s a different point to ICU beds and our mortality figure, which is what we were talking about though. If you think that’s the way forward, and it’s certainly an option, then it’s likely we will end up with higher than Spain and Italy in the short term. We might cope better longer term with it though.
 
Marvin said:
UK curve looks close to Spain on the graph but it's a bit misleading because of the log scale. I think we'll be below Spain, and Italy too, but it will depend whether we plateau around this level or come down quickly.

I thought the figures looked to be improving but I just looked at the beginning of the press conference and there was one worrying stat I missed: the hospitalisations spiked up across all regions.

They need to get to grips with the testing. Antibodies looks problematic but the most important thing is to test for the virus particularly as it seems more than half the infected people are asymptomatic.
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Starting that graph on 3 deaths makes the UK look far worse than it is if you start on 10 deaths, which is of course why the FT did it.
 
chedinho said:
There is no evidence of it passing from pets to humans. Just seems they can test positive for low levels of the pathogen.
Nothing to worry about yet.
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You dont think a whole zoo full of big cats showing Covid-19 symptoms is even a tidgy bit worrying?
 
worsleyweb said:
I am hearing far too many ambulances here in Manchester tonight.
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Unfortunately, there’ll be a huge spike in domestic violence and abuse due to lockdown. It’ll be very grim and dangerous in some households.
 
meltonblue said:
Which is fine, that’s a different point to ICU beds and our mortality figure, which is what we were talking about though. If you think that’s the way forward, and it’s certainly an option, then it’s likely we will end up with higher than Spain and Italy in the short term. We might cope better longer term with it though.
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Again it depends....we don't know exactly how many of those Spanish and Italian deaths came from the Lombardy and Madrid healthcare systems being overrun, and the death rate for people needing ventilation going from ~50% to 100% for those who couldn't get it.

If we start plateauing significantly below their death per day numbers because we never reach that point, then we will end up with lower short term as well.

Also, not to be too morbid, but we have 50% more people than Spain...we 'should' lose more people in absolute terms.

The biggest difference will be in how steep the declines are. In theory Spain and Italy should decline slightly faster, but how much will be impossible to know until it happens.
 
domalino said:
A complete lockdown doesn't really help us at all. If we cut off all new cases then great, deaths would stop, but we'd all be locked in our homes with no trips outside to exercise or walk the dog or shop (online deliveries only) for the next 18 months which clearly isn't tenable or possible. I think The Times had an epidemiologist writing today who just called it treading water.

The only real way through this is for a lot of people to get it, but at a slow enough rate that everyone gets proper medical treatment and the best chance of beating it, and really shielding those who are at real risk of dying.

We'll know a lot more when the German random test results come in and we understand the very mild/asymptomatic % better.
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That's simply not true.

We lock down hard enough and long enough to get rid of it - or get get the new infection rate down to close to zero, and then we can ease off and gradually start to get back to normal. And then test like mad, isolate new cases and their contacts and isolate them too. And if numbers start to rise too quickly, lock down again. And do it early this time, whilst the numbers are still very low so that any new lock down can be bruef.

This works. China showed us it works. Singapore same. South Korea and Taiwan ditto.

The "let's allow everyone to catch it' idea is nonsense. It can never work. You cannot spread 40m infections out any way any how, and not hugely exceed the health service capacity to treat people. Then many tens, even hundreds of thousands die because we don't have enough ICU capacity.

It is a non-starter.
 
domalino said:
Again it depends....we don't know exactly how many of those Spanish and Italian deaths came from the Lombardy and Madrid healthcare systems being overrun, and the death rate for people needing ventilation going from ~50% to 100% for those who couldn't get it.

If we start plateauing significantly below their death per day numbers because we never reach that point, then we will end up with lower short term as well.

Also, not to be too morbid, but we have 50% more people than Spain...we should lose more people in absolute terms.
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We don’t but the death rate so far does show that ventilators or not, the biggest difference is stopping people getting to that stage though. Agree with all of that sentiment though.
 
BlueAnorak said:
You dont think a whole zoo full of big cats showing Covid-19 symptoms is even a tidgy bit worrying?
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Think they are on lockdown.

I was reading about it earlier. There’s been a few reports of pets getting it through their owner/keeper. And not the other way about.
 
domalino said:
Again it depends....we don't know exactly how many of those Spanish and Italian deaths came from the Lombardy and Madrid healthcare systems being overrun, and the death rate for people needing ventilation going from ~50% to 100% for those who couldn't get it.

If we start plateauing significantly below their death per day numbers because we never reach that point, then we will end up with lower short term as well.

Also, not to be too morbid, but we have 50% more people than Spain...we should lose more people in absolute terms.
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Whilst true, we can learn a lot from Spain and Italy - if there numbers are reducing , we know lockdown works - we can follow certain guidance and the more countries that can reduce this to a minimum the more they can help other countries.
 
Chippy_boy said:
That's simply not true.

We lock down hard enough and long enough to get rid of it - or get get the new infection rate down to close to zero, and then we can ease off and gradually start to get back to normal. And then test like mad, isolate new cases and their contacts and isolate them too. And if numbers start to rise too quickly, lock down again. And do it early this time, whilst the numbers are still very low so that any new lock down can be bruef.

This works. China showed us it works. Singapore same. South Korea and Taiwan ditto.

The "let's allow everyone to catch it' idea is nonsense. It can never work. You cannot spread 40m infections out any way any how, and not hugely exceed the health service capacity to treat people. Then many tens, even hundreds of thousands die because we don't have enough ICU capacity.

It is a non-starter.
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The China whose example you want to follow...is this the same China that you also think has covered up tens of thousands of deaths?

The "let's allow everyone to catch it' idea is nonsense. It can never work. You cannot spread 40m infections out any way any how, and not hugely exceed the health service capacity to treat people.
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Except you can. It's what we're doing now. People are still getting infected, just at a very slow rate. We're still under capacity, they say we'll stay under capacity when the pre lockdown peak hits in 5/6 days, and then we will be into the phase of doing exactly that controlled spread.

You cannot lock down hard enough to get rid of it. It's not possible without locking down every supermarket, delivery driver, healthcare worker, and everyone who runs essential services.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Starting that graph on 3 deaths makes the UK look far worse than it is if you start on 10 deaths, which is of course why the FT did it.
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Here's the hospitalisation data from the beginning of the press conference which I missed first time around.

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Expect further instructions tomorrow from the Govt about social distancing in public places. Looks like more measures are incoming as the general public have not complied well enough over the weekend.
 
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