COVID-19 — Coronavirus

Status
Not open for further replies.
Nellies left peg said:
You want to watch something a bit more uplifting too depressing all these corona programmes. Have been watching the dickheads on first dates and some kids on undateables. Everybody needs someone in their life. Quite nice when they find someone
Click to expand...
I put it on this time of night to watch trump,he is amusing from a distance when i can't sleep,fear not my input of brainless reality tv is uneffected,BGT starts this sat so even more to amuse me
 
karen7 said:
I put it on this time of night to watch trump,he is amusing from a distance when i can't sleep,fear not my input of brainless reality tv is uneffected,BGT starts this sat so even more to amuse me
Click to expand...
Fair play Kaz, we need distractions with all this shit going on. Apparently that series about Dynamo on sky is watchable
 
Apologies if this has been discussed, dissected, cogitated already but I stepped away from this thread last week (same with much of the news tbf, though dip into a few scientific papers and follow virologists on twitter) as my well being was pulling a balancing act.
But has any of the conspiracy theories at all been even considered? Not the ridiculous 5G ‘theory’ but ones linking it to (for example) ‘global analysts trying to offset a global war or for financial implications’.
I’ve read it’s almost certainly a zoological virus rather than mad made so just what are these theories based theories on?
Not at all convinced myself but there’s a few small c conservative types discussing the plausibility.
Entirely nonsensical?
 
Chippy_boy said:
Have you seen the rate of new infections in e.g. Singapore?

And BTW there's no way 10-15% of us are infected. Sure it's many times more than the 65,000 registered cases. But not 100x to 150x more.
Click to expand...
Let's do some guestimation...
The iceland study, when reported in the UK had tested 22,195 people, roughly 6% of the population of whom 1,364 had tested +ve and 50% of whom were asymptomatic and of those tested 4 had died.
Now 1,364 is the figure for people who currently have the virus as most people this would mean a multiplier of 341 from deaths...
BUT people only test positive for around 2 weeks.
Also assuming a case multiplier of 3 over a 2 week period and that the virus had only been in the country over an 8 week period the multiplier would be 505
(341 + 341/3 + 341/9 + 341/27)

So my guess is that around 4,028,890 people in the UK have had the virus. 7,978 (deaths) * 505 (multiplier). Or 6% of the population.
Double this figure if you only test positive for 7 days or if the very simplistic case multiplier is more than 3. I should work this out using a log function, but I'm two tired to be bothered.
 
Last edited:
somapop said:
Apologies if this has been discussed, dissected, cogitated already but I stepped away from this thread last week (same with much of the news tbf, though dip into a few scientific papers and follow virologists on twitter) as my well being was pulling a balancing act.
But has any of the conspiracy theories at all been even considered? Not the ridiculous 5G ‘theory’ but ones linking it to (for example) ‘global analysts trying to offset a global war or for financial implications’.
I’ve read it’s almost certainly a zoological virus rather than mad made so just what are these theories based theories on?
Not at all convinced myself but there’s a few small c conservative types discussing the plausibility.
Entirely nonsensical?
Click to expand...
Western scientists looked at it and it was not a man made virus,it came from bats /pangolins

Coronaviruses are common in certain species of animals, such as cattle and camels. Although the transmission of coronaviruses from animals to humans is rare, this new strain likely came from bats, though one study suggests pangolins may be the origin.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronavirus-causes#origin

https://www.sciencealert.com/coronavirus
 
Gelsons Dad said:
If it's trajectories you are after plot new over total like this:
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

The graph above is referenced to time since declared 10th death. You say it wouldn't matter if it was 1, 10 or 50 but even by eye it's clear that if you centre on 50 or 100 that looks completely different. Because it's plotted against days since.

Forget days since.........
Plot new over total.
Click to expand...

My point to BlueAnorak was that in 14 days we'll be on a steeper trajectory than Italy were on at the same point. He said we're not there yet. Well we are on the graph I posted but we won't be on different starting points, I agree. But in 14 days time, I suspect (according to what's been said today) no matter which starting point you use, we will be on a steeper path than them.
 
karen7 said:
Western scientists looked at it and it was not a man made virus,it came from bats /pangolins

Coronaviruses are common in certain species of animals, such as cattle and camels. Although the transmission of coronaviruses from animals to humans is rare, this new strain likely came from bats, though one study suggests pangolins may be the origin.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronavirus-causes#origin

https://www.sciencealert.com/coronavirus
Click to expand...

Yes, I’m totally on the side of the zoological cause...so if it’s biologically water tight that it’s a natural causation how on earth could it be conspiratorial? Doesn’t all those theories fall down immediately?

Just intrigued as there’s a fair bit doing the rounds.
 
Americans,CNN

They are doing a lot of testing/contact tracing,what we wasted a month not doing
Lots of good age group testing,esp in the young

Antibody test coming online,system all set up do widescale testing

Bears out findings that it is more common in men

They are also suggesting it got in from europe not china

They reckon peoples summer holidays might be on,if everyone follows the rules now

1 person infecting one ish with lockdown,1 infecting 6 without
 
Last edited:
somapop said:
Yes, I’m totally on the side of the zoological cause...so if it’s biologically water tight that it’s a natural causation how on earth could it be conspiratorial? Doesn’t all those theories fall down immediately?

Just intrigued as there’s a fair bit doing the rounds.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't take any notice of conspiracy theories,people always want to think there is a big secret and social media was made for that but the science doesn't bear it out
I do think someone did diana in though!
 
Fame Monster said:
According to this we're on a steeper trajectory than Italy and if we're going to have 14,000 more deaths over the next fortnight, we will be on a trajectory even more steeper than them whether the starting point is 1 death, 10 deaths or 50 deaths.

EVMLSSPWsAkYUyY
Click to expand...
That graph is based on days since 10 deaths so we're slightly ahead. The government like to use days since 50 deaths that puts us slightly behind.
 
somapop said:
Yes, I’m totally on the side of the zoological cause...so if it’s biologically water tight that it’s a natural causation how on earth could it be conspiratorial? Doesn’t all those theories fall down immediately?

Just intrigued as there’s a fair bit doing the rounds.
Click to expand...

Because the lines nowadays between fact and fiction are blurred more than ever before. Experts aren’t trusted (even on completely non political points), things with high internet hits are.
 
Gelsons Dad said:
Than them now or in 14 days after they had 8000 deaths?
I wouldn't sweat it mate. It will be what it will be.
Click to expand...

Easier said than done though, I've probably got COVID-19 right now so I'm literally sweating it. I've also got two sisters who work in the NHS and other family members have likely got it but even if I didn't have it, it matters to me what we're doing about the situation and obviously as difficult as international comparisons can be, it's useful to look to see how other countries are faring in the same situation.
 
Gelsons Dad said:
Along with the german report I linked this morning it could be very significant.
I've asked with no response of course, the modellers who are on twitter if they have looked and much higher R0s with much lower lethality's for a couple of weeks now. The reason is, that perhaps the lockdown measures haven't really done much and we are just seeing the virus burn out in Italy and Spain.
Now that would be miraculous.
Click to expand...

which page is the report on mate?
Or could you please post it again?
Thanks.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top