Sorry to labour the point Karen, and thank you for your valuable input on this thread, but this is of those testing positive in hospital. That total excludes deaths in the community from Eng and Wales. This significantly under estimates the total deaths.
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COVID-19 — Coronavirus
- Thread starter urban genie
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kaz7
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The trend is levelling off suggesting we are more or less at the peak,death rates will continue to be high for nowNot really improving is it
I know mate, I meant the total deaths, not those given on a daily basis which I get are fairly meaningless in isolation.No doesn’t work like that as “only” 150 or so of those today died yesterday. The others were on previous days.
Manc in London
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Yes it is early but it not just us,americans is the same so there is definately more investigation to be done
I am aware of that but there are other variables at play. You only have to look at South Korea. I would suggest the majority of the population is not Caucasian. They have lower deaths and infections than the UK.
You could easily get into a "What did the Romans ever do for us" type conversation. We need more data to establish covariance. You cannot be confident of covariance from topline data.
kaz7
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The number of tests is all the tests they have done ,patients,frontline staff,etcSorry to labour the point Karen, and thank you for your valuable input on this thread, but this is of those testing positive in hospital. That total excludes deaths in the community from Eng and Wales. This significantly under estimates the total deaths.
The death numbers are hospitals only,because that is 100% certain
The ONS figure is seperate and released on a tues,they are not added together but the figures are there to see
Edit,scotland are now including care home numbers
Why are people suddenly getting confused by the daily numbers
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Len Rum
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The trend may 'appear to not be too bad'.It’ll be circa 900 by the time they add Scotland, Wales and Ireland into the mix, however I’d also hazard a guess that it’s higher due to Easter lag too.
All in all, appears to not be too bad.
The absolute numbers are horrendous.
I’m not confused, I’m saying the real figure is somewhere nearer 25,000-a death rate of between 40-45% in the community is very much in line with other European countries. Decisions are being made on these totals when they are evidently under counted-and that, appreciating there will be more variation in accuracy in the community, is a political decision.The number of tests is all the tests they have done ,patients,frontline staff,etc
The death numbers are hospitals only,because that is 100% certain
The ONS figure is seperate and released on a tues,they are not added together but the figures are there to see
Edit,scotland are now including care home numbers
Why are people suddenly getting confused by the daily numbers
Gaylord du Bois
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Sorry I'm confusing it with the UK number.Petty sure that hasn’t happened-you can see from France totals the big jump when they started adding deaths in the community. I believe Scotland have been adding those-but our tally is from deaths in hospital alone.
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I just have a feeling our peak will last a fair while because of the slack lockdown.The trend is levelling off suggesting we are more or less at the peak,death rates will continue to be high for now
I just have a feeling our peak will last a fair while because of the slack lockdown.
I agree plus add to it the amount of parties the police broke up last week and the idiots out and about over Easter.
kaz7
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I think you might be right,i think it is way to soon to slacken off lockdown,scotland is going for three more weeks,i expect we will do the same,we cannot afford any fuck up at this crucial pointI just have a feeling our peak will last a fair while because of the slack lockdown.
Rammy Blue
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Well, obviously. It was, as I’m sure you saw, a reply to a post where it was already called “tragic”, so didn’t feel the need to re-emphasise that point....The trend may 'appear to not be too bad'.
The absolute numbers are horrendous.
kevin horlocks wand
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I just have a feeling our peak will last a fair while because of the slack lockdown.
you keep mentioning slack lockdown what lockdown do you think we should be under ? It feels like a lockdown to me I go out of the house for a run once a day that’s it. Shopping delivered that’s it. Isn’t that the same for most people.
kevin horlocks wand
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I think you might be right,i think it is way to soon to slacken off lockdown,scotland is going for three more weeks,i expect we will do the same,we cannot afford any fuck up at this crucial point
of course we will be going for 3 more weeks because that is what UK cobra will have agreed and just like with all previous uk cobra meetings , that wee little Nicole rightly insisted on being on, she will immediately call a Scottish press conference and leak the UK cobra findings for that day (as they apply to Scotland ) which is the same as the uk. Not missed a conference as Nicola . I preferred it when she did that comedy show with her husband.
I mean, nearly 900 deaths isn’t great but I think the majority thought we were going to be topping 1,000 daily if not more after the bank holiday weekend.
Obvious caveat for these not being actual daily numbers & not involving care home etc etc.
Let’s hope this is the peak and we start dropping soon.
Obvious caveat for these not being actual daily numbers & not involving care home etc etc.
Let’s hope this is the peak and we start dropping soon.
The trend is levelling off suggesting we are more or less at the peak,death rates will continue to be high for now
I just have a feeling our peak will last a fair while because of the slack lockdown.
I think you might be right,i think it is way to soon to slacken off lockdown,scotland is going for three more weeks,i expect we will do the same,we cannot afford any fuck up at this crucial point
This is going to be the "boring" bit. The figures get repetitive, things seem less dangerous because it's not spiralling out of control and the numbers don't have the shock factor they did at first. Each day this week we'll see 750-800 deaths, next week it'll be 650-700, the week after 500-600 and we will just slowly decrease until we hit the threshold where they'll open things up again.
And as things decrease, people will get more restless, go out more, be less careful with their social distancing and washing hands etc. and that will make the tail go slower.
west didsblue
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I apologise to half the forum for frightening them 2 weeks ago.I noticed how you said could be,will you apologise for frightening half this forum if it doesn’t hit that amount
As I said at the time, if the exponential growth rate had continued the way it was going two weeks ago (doubling every 3 days), a very bad situation would have been even worse. Thankfully social distancing appears to be working and the growth is no longer exponential.
Let’s hope the trend changes direction soon.
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