COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[MillionMilesAway]

Mutation mutation mutation......
Try this.

Key sentence from summary "Therefore, we provide direct evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 has acquired mutations capable of substantially changing its pathogenicity."

Yes, that makes sense - it strengthens why the other medrix link you posted is important.
Some mutations are minor (of no actual effect, or in an inactive region), some are major.
The more mutations, and the more major mutations, the more the chance that it changes the virus' action and effects.
From the first link, some mutations may be essentially geographical, as it's only happened in the last ten days (and e.g. not be as important in South Korea as in the UK)

I suppose it's worth mention that any change could
(a) stop any individual treatment working
(b) not affect it, but affect another
(c) make the virus worse
(d) make the virus less bad

 

[Manc in London]

Mutation mutation mutation......
Try this.

Key sentence from summary "Therefore, we provide direct evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 has acquired mutations capable of substantially changing its pathogenicity."

Capable but unlikely according to what I have read.

As I don't know about these things, I tend to trust those who are qualified to comment rather than try to appear as an expert.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Does it mutate in transmission? If it does, does it mean it is fundamentally different?

There are two different forms of mutation for RNA viruses:
1. Genetic drift. RNA replication isn't as percise as DNA so occasionally you get small errors when an infected cell creates new virus.
2. Step shift. RNA replication goes seriously awry possibly due to two different RNA virus invading the same cell that are compatible and they exchange features.
This has led to 3 different versions, or strains, of Coronavirus. The change in the RNA of the Coronavirus as it has spreads across the world can be monitored and are mapped on this web site.
https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?animate=2019-11-30,2020-04-17,0,0,30000

 

[BlueAnorak]

and that would require a much higher R0.

just like these two Chinese engineers from Leeds Uni have calculated ;-)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20062588v1.full.pdf

It's by far the most accurate model I've seen and makes lord Neil of Ferguson look a bit of a chump!!!

Yep, though it does make some interesting mortality assumptions that can't be validated till you:
(A) identify all COVID deaths via ONS.
(B) Test a much larger proportion of the population.

 

[Manc in London]

Linking an academic paper. Not a very convincing way of trying to appear as an expert. I therefore assume you're not referring to me.

If I was referring to you or anyone else, I would have made it clear. :)

 

[BlueAnorak]

When leading doctors can spot the issue as a result of reading medical papers on the subject, then surely the "no mask" doctrine at the heart of government scientific advice (that is backed up by PHE and NHS enforcement) has to be kicked into touch?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...h-face-masks-should-worn-prevent-coronavirus/
How fucking long can they keep flogging a dead horse?
I guess that as it took a month and a half to recommend vitamin D supplements.then there is my answer.

 

[west didsblue]

When leading doctors can spot the issue as a result of reading medical papers on the subject, then surely the "no mask" doctrine at the heart of government scientific advice (that is backed up by PHE and NHS enforcement) has to be kicked into touch?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...h-face-masks-should-worn-prevent-coronavirus/
How fucking long can they keep flogging a dead horse?
I guess that as it took a month and a half to recommend vitamin D supplements.then there is my answer.

They know they should recommend wearing masks. I reckon the only reason they’re not is due to supply issues that might cause a shortfall for NHS and care workers if the whole population is trying to get hold of them.

 

[kaz7]

There is a company in this country selling masks through the sunday paper,i am going to buy some and take them to a local care home

 

[BlueAnorak]

They know they should recommend wearing masks. I reckon the only reason they’re not is due to supply issues that might cause a shortfall for NHS and care workers if the whole population is trying to get hold of them.

Yep I think so.

 

[kaz7]

Better you don't buy them Karen. They come from the same source that the government is buying from. If you buy them they are no longer available to the government and you have no idea where the highest risk demand for them is whereas the Government through the NHS do.

You think you are doing a good thing but in fact you will be disrupting the supply chain. By yourself only a tiny amount, but if everyone else does it then the NHS are fucked.

Big Picture.

Never thought about it like that,you are right,have to find another good deed instead

 

[BlueAnorak]

They know they should recommend wearing masks. I reckon the only reason they’re not is due to supply issues that might cause a shortfall for NHS and care workers if the whole population is trying to get hold of them.

This is where government has to accept risk.
If they go off message too early every **** with an internet connection buys masks. Now all the masks are sold and the supply chain is empty and the key workers end up without masks.

They have to ensure they have enough masks on back order in the chain before they say masks are good. It's all about timing and the messaging the government project.

They know there will be a massive backlash when they change the message and the longer they wait the bigger it will be. But they need to secure the stock for the key workers first because if they don't the backlash will be worse.

This is risk management laid bare.

There comes a point where telling the truth works and this is it.
Stateing the truth that N95 masks are essential for medical staff but are not required for public use, and further, that if the public try to get N95 masks it will endanger the PPE delivery to front line staff will suffice. Mask alternatives should then be described.
Tell the truth. The vast majority of the public will understand.

 

[kaz7]

Another nice story

Doctors and nurses clapped as two men became the first patients to be discharged from London's Nightingale Hospital after being treated for coronavirus
One of those discharged, Simon Chung, was seen being lifted into an ambulance on a stretcher with a mask over his face as medics applauded his progress

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ed-from-londons-nightingale-hospital-11975608

 

[BlueAnorak]

More proof from Saxony (following on from the Czechia).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...e-citizens-wear-masks-following-success-city/

 

[i8therags]

When leading doctors can spot the issue as a result of reading medical papers on the subject, then surely the "no mask" doctrine at the heart of government scientific advice (that is backed up by PHE and NHS enforcement) has to be kicked into touch?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...h-face-masks-should-worn-prevent-coronavirus/
How fucking long can they keep flogging a dead horse?
I guess that as it took a month and a half to recommend vitamin D supplements.then there is my answer.

Not read the link you provided. Apologies. It's just your post in its own right jumped out at me. I'm 99% certain I've had the virus. Had to speak to a doctor after ignoring the demand to go to A n E after filling in an E form on line for serious issues that I believe is related to after effects of this virus. I strongly believed I just needed antibiotics

When leading doctors can spot the issue as a result of reading medical papers on the subject, then surely the "no mask" doctrine at the heart of government scientific advice (that is backed up by PHE and NHS enforcement) has to be kicked into touch?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...h-face-masks-should-worn-prevent-coronavirus/
How fucking long can they keep flogging a dead horse?
I guess that as it took a month and a half to recommend vitamin D supplements.then there is my answer.

Your post is very interesting. I've been banging on about vitamin D since February. A very long story why. I'm no conspiracy theorist or anything. In December I was prescribed 40000 iu's of vitamin D. In February I was really poorly. I am in the high risk category, but recovered with no major fight, unpleasant and a bit scary at times, but no worse than most of us have had at some time with some virus at my age and smoking drinking history. I'm on antibiotics now for a suspected kidney infection. Giving the doctor info regarding my vitamin D, symptoms in February etc, she had no hesitation in prescribing me the antibiotics. Oh and they are working BTW. Feeling good now. Oh nearly forgot, she was of the opinion I had had corona . Not the booze.

 

[i8therags]

There are a number of reports that Covid-19 damages the kidneys.

I know. Seriously I have an interesting story. I don't think I'm unique or anything. More like interesting coincidences with timing. Not pre planned by some tin hat theory. Just coincidences that suggests vitamin D is so important to many aspects of our health. Maybe we need to ask why we are not getting enough naturally.

 

[SWP's back]

That's "if" we ever went to the moon.

( I believe we did by the way )

Well yes but that’s only IF you exist to post that to me and IF I’m actually replying.

 

[SWP's back]

Can't treat a virus chips,if we could we would have by now

That’s untrue I’m afraid. You can’t cure a virus but you can treat one with antiretrovirals that stop it killing people. That’s what Chippy is talking about.

There are two very promising drugs being tested at the minute:

https://www.newsweek.com/remdesivir...l-patients-trial-released-within-week-1498429

And the one GD linked:

https://news.gsu.edu/2020/04/15/geo...hritis-drug-is-effective-against-coronavirus/

I’ve now bought a few quids worth of shares in both.

I’m sure there are probably others that I’ve not read anything about.

 

[I'm With Stupid]

There comes a point where telling the truth works and this is it.
Stateing the truth that N95 masks are essential for medical staff but are not required for public use, and further, that if the public try to get N95 masks it will endanger the PPE delivery to front line staff will suffice. Mask alternatives should then be described.
Tell the truth. The vast majority of the public will understand.

I just bought some masks yesterday after the pharmacy were out of stock for about a month. They've now got loads (one pack per person though, with government-set prices), but they're not the type that filter particles. But that's not what you need for the general public, you just want something that will stop people coughing and sneezing on stuff. They're for other people's benefit, not the wearer. To be honest, I've managed to get away with wearing the same one for a few weeks, because I literally only wear it for the 20 minutes it takes to go to the shop and back. A pack of 20 should see me through the rest of the outbreak tbh.

But yeah, they need to go to health workers first, then other essential workers, then the general public last. But you wonder if Europe hadn't dismissed the notion of wearing masks, they would have been able to spend the last month ramping up production to have enough for everyone. Here in Asia, there was definitely a shortage for a while, but it seems like the factories have now caught up with increased demand (although my pack is all in Chinese so presumably imported from China).

 

[i8rags]

currently below Spain, Italy, Belgium and France among major European countries.

Said it before, we are four countries.

 

[Bigg Bigg Blue]

Well yes but that’s only IF you exist to post that to me and IF I’m actually replying.

Have you any "Proof" that it was you that replied to me ? :)