COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Marvin said:
They are injecting two groups and injecting one with a meningitis vaccine and one with their new vaccine. I think there's 500 people involved.

They will then monitor which group gets infected. In a challenge test they deliberately infect the groups but in this case they will not. They just wait and see who gets infected. The problem is now that we are in lockdown and virus transmission is low so this is going to slow down the vaccine development. This phase of the trial requires rapid infection.
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Wait that sounds like a shite trial! It's going to be minimal isn't it?!
 
So we have rapidly rising testing capacity but no community testing. What does that tell you?
 
twosips said:
Wait that sounds like a shite trial! It's going to be minimal isn't it?!
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Yes. It's going to be slow.

They did say though that they only need a few people to be infected. They don't have to wait until an entire group gets infected. They have to wait until there's a significant difference between infection rates in the two groups. I am not sure why they don't deliberately infect them but it could be on ethical grounds.

I got this info from BBC I player Andre Marr show. Professor Sarah Gilbert was interviewed. It was quite interesting as she also explained a little but about why she thought men and old people sufer more with the virus.

The program didn't explain her background but it sounds like her group developed a vaccine for MERS, or were at least working on one and hence were well placed to work on Covid19
 
Prof Pollard from Oxford,can we get immunity from infection or vaccine ?that is to be determined,not certain on either till we have done the testing

How have you moved to this point so soon,we have learnt a lot from SARS and MERS,the later was already being studied here so we have used that genetic code

TImeline if trials are successful to roll out for use ? Capacity to upscale and put it into vials etc takes time,to get large scale roll out could take a year or more,might be able to roll out some millions by autumn,only if there is no problemsr

Who would get it first ? If plenty of supply then widely available but prioritise frontline workers and the population who have other illnesses but depends on a lot of things to do with how the vaccine works,need multiple vaccines available

China say 33 mutations,is this correct? Nothing to say it would be a major issue for producing a vaccine

Me dictating from live interview on sky news
 
denislawsbackheel said:
again sadly not true.
Phase 1 trials can take from months to 1 year.
Phase 2 trials can take from months to 2 years.
Phase 3 trials can take from months to 3 years.

They will not cut corners in any phase until they are sure.

it will NOT be ready by September.
It will not be manufactured until it is approved.
It will take months more to produce it in the billions of doses needed.
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You best let them know then.
 
karen7 said:
Prof Pollard from Oxford,can we get immunity from infection or vaccine ?that is to be determined,not certain on either till we have done the testing

How have you moved to this point so soon,we have learnt a lot from SARS and MERS,the later was already being studied here so we have used that genetic code

TImeline if trials are successful to roll out for use ? Capacity to upscale and put it into vials etc takes time,to get large scale roll out could take a year or more,might be able to roll out some millions by autumn,only if there is no problemsr

Who would get it first ? If plenty of supply then widely available but prioritise frontline workers and the population who have other illnesses but depends on a lot of things to do with how the vaccine works,need multiple vaccines available

China say 33 mutations,is this correct? Nothing to say it would be a major issue for producing a vaccine

Me dictating from live interview on sky news
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Most mutations are point mutations which are very small and still encode for the exact same amino acid, and so have no effect at all.

Prof Gilbert said that their MERS vaccine worked well on a whole variety of MERS strains.
 
twosips said:
Yes, but usually they're not hanging around waiting for them to get infected I presume?
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They have to monitor loads of things including,efficacy,side effects,general reactions to the vaccine,make sure it doesn't kill anyone,optimum dose needed,evaluate that then move on to a bigger trial,this is why it takes so long
 
denislawsbackheel said:
again sadly not true.
Phase 1 trials can take from months to 1 year.
Phase 2 trials can take from months to 2 years.
Phase 3 trials can take from months to 3 years.

They will not cut corners in any phase until they are sure.

it will NOT be ready by September.
It will not be manufactured until it is approved.
It will take months more to produce it in the billions of doses needed.
Click to expand...

You don’t no that for a fact.
Never before in history has so much money and investment gone into a vaccine to be ready asap.
 
twosips said:
Yes, but usually they're not hanging around waiting for them to get infected I presume?
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It surprised me.

I just googled this:When they say challenge they mean deliberately infecting their trial participants.

Abstract
Controlled human challenge trials of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates could accelerate the testing and potential rollout of efficacious vaccines. By replacing conventional phase 3 testing of vaccine candidates, such trials may subtract many months from the licensure process, making efficacious vaccines available more quickly. Obviously, challenging volunteers with this live virus risks inducing severe disease and possibly even death. However, we argue that such studies, by accelerating vaccine evaluation, could reduce the global burden of coronavirus-related mortality and morbidity. Volunteers in such studies could autonomously authorize the risks to themselves, and their net risk could be acceptable if participants comprise healthy young adults, who are at relatively low risk of serious disease following natural infection, if they have a high baseline risk of natural infection, and if during the trial they receive frequent monitoring and, following any infection, the best available care.

https://academic-oup-com.manchester.idm.oclc.org/jid/article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa152/5814216
 
Dutch primary schools going back in May; half the class in the morning, half the class in the afternoon. If it works (i.e. no further spikes as a consequence), then all schools to return on June 1st.
 
blueparrot said:
But Oxford remain confident if it works they can produce a tested vaccine by September, if it’s manufactured in parallel with testing. It’s a risk but one they think is worth taking.
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I think Bill Gates has told Oxford he will manaufacturer it in parallel, regardless of whether it comes to market.

He is a good man.
 
Marvin said:
It surprised me.

I just googled this:When they say challenge they mean deliberately infecting their trial participants.

Abstract
Controlled human challenge trials of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates could accelerate the testing and potential rollout of efficacious vaccines. By replacing conventional phase 3 testing of vaccine candidates, such trials may subtract many months from the licensure process, making efficacious vaccines available more quickly. Obviously, challenging volunteers with this live virus risks inducing severe disease and possibly even death. However, we argue that such studies, by accelerating vaccine evaluation, could reduce the global burden of coronavirus-related mortality and morbidity. Volunteers in such studies could autonomously authorize the risks to themselves, and their net risk could be acceptable if participants comprise healthy young adults, who are at relatively low risk of serious disease following natural infection, if they have a high baseline risk of natural infection, and if during the trial they receive frequent monitoring and, following any infection, the best available care.

https://academic-oup-com.manchester.idm.oclc.org/jid/article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa152/5814216
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I suppose ideally one of the treatment trials having a high success would reduce the risk of a challenge trial at a point later in the vaccine trials. Not sure when we’ll see results of the different treatment trials occuring.
 
denislawsbackheel said:
again sadly not true.
Phase 1 trials can take from months to 1 year.
Phase 2 trials can take from months to 2 years.
Phase 3 trials can take from months to 3 years.

They will not cut corners in any phase until they are sure.

it will NOT be ready by September.
It will not be manufactured until it is approved.
It will take months more to produce it in the billions of doses needed.
Click to expand...

That isn't strictly true. They are FDA guidelines.

Gates has already started manufacturing at least three vaccines for this very reason, he is willing to take the financial hit because, as you say, billions of doses need time.

A risk worth taking for a man with his resources.
 
denislawsbackheel said:
again sadly not true.
Phase 1 trials can take from months to 1 year.
Phase 2 trials can take from months to 2 years.
Phase 3 trials can take from months to 3 years.

They will not cut corners in any phase until they are sure.

it will NOT be ready by September.
It will not be manufactured until it is approved.
It will take months more to produce it in the billions of doses needed.
Click to expand...
He said, this normally takes years ( funding issues) now it’s months
We need 68 million
 
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