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Interesting development.
COVID-19 — Coronavirus
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Gaylord du Bois
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On Tuesday 823 new deaths were announced, but most of these happened in the previous days and weeks. Some even date back to March.
From the BBC.
blueparrot
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I’d be surprised, no idea really, the decline in hospital and icu cases suggest it should drop.We were up in the 800s and high 700 s , second half of last week. So if we saw 6 and 7 hundreds this week it would be progress.
BosnianBlue
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It's a pattern in UK, Sweden and some other countries. Weekends and Mondays are underreported and then it rises in midweek. No point in being happy seeing lower numbers on Monday, until they repeat at Tuesdays and Wednesdays.
kaz7
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Questions
PPE ? Brought a lot from abroad from big suppliers
Front line staff still do not enough and why no joining EU scheme? We are now members but they are not providing PPE as yet
Using masks and testing ? Advised by the science on masks,a meeting by SAGE this morning ,wil report on this later,priority to health care workers,will change to public if the science says to change
We have the capacity to test,sending out home tests to people that cant get to testing stations,eg care homes etc,looking at different ways
PPE number of suppliers saying they cant get through red tape or get a call back,wlil you make it easier? We have had the sort the credible companies from the not
global shortage trying to get directly to the factories that make it
PPE ? Brought a lot from abroad from big suppliers
Front line staff still do not enough and why no joining EU scheme? We are now members but they are not providing PPE as yet
Using masks and testing ? Advised by the science on masks,a meeting by SAGE this morning ,wil report on this later,priority to health care workers,will change to public if the science says to change
We have the capacity to test,sending out home tests to people that cant get to testing stations,eg care homes etc,looking at different ways
PPE number of suppliers saying they cant get through red tape or get a call back,wlil you make it easier? We have had the sort the credible companies from the not
global shortage trying to get directly to the factories that make it
marco
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Oxford Uni must be on the verge of something here if their doing human tests on Thursday, they wouldnt be that far down the road so soon unless they were pretty confident
xgorton
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Ok Matt.
They said they were 80% confident it would work last week. That's a pretty high number, but obviously shit loads of room for error. Fingers crossed!
blueparrot
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To be fair I haven’t seen the BBC use that graph before, they have only just started using it. More or less using Gelsons method.@Gelsons Dad, FWIW here's you graph with the BBC basic noddy graph superimposed on top. I am sorry but I really do not see what additional insight your more comprehensive data is revealing (in terms of deducing the effectiveness of school closures etc).
Analysis: England may have reached peak on 8 April
Nick Triggle
Health Correspondent
For the past few weeks it has looked like the number of deaths may be slowing, but it has been hard to call with deaths going down one day, then up the next.
But a new analysis now suggests the peak may have been passed nearly two weeks ago.
The daily figures released by government represent when deaths are recorded, not when they happened.
On Monday the figure announced was less than 500, but on Tuesday it jumped to over 800.
But some of those deaths relate to fatalities that happened weeks ago. NHS England has started compiling deaths by date they happened.
A clear trend emerges – at least in England - the peak seemed to have happened on 8 April.
I was thinking it must be a good sign if the government are announcing it as well. Would have been easier to not mention it incase it fails.
kaz7
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Questions. China,disinformation campaign report-can't comment on that report
People without symptoms,how will be pick them up,should we test everyone?
Very difficult aspect of this virus,it is clear some people shed the virus before they get symptoms,trying to understand how infectious they are compared with those with symptoms,the main transmission seems to be from them with symptoms of coughing and sneezing,must isolate as soon as you get symptoms
The tests will able to pick up patients with no symptoms,studies underway,outbreaks like care homes and prisons will be investigated with testing ,not using test as a broad screen
People without symptoms,how will be pick them up,should we test everyone?
Very difficult aspect of this virus,it is clear some people shed the virus before they get symptoms,trying to understand how infectious they are compared with those with symptoms,the main transmission seems to be from them with symptoms of coughing and sneezing,must isolate as soon as you get symptoms
The tests will able to pick up patients with no symptoms,studies underway,outbreaks like care homes and prisons will be investigated with testing ,not using test as a broad screen
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SWP's back
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denislawsbackheel
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on the contrary.
They are entering phase 1 of trials.
This is what’s involved.
Phase I Vaccine Trials
This first attempt to assess the candidate vaccine in humans involves a small group of adults, usually between 20-80 subjects. If the vaccine is intended for children, researchers will first test adults, and then gradually step down the age of the test subjects until they reach their target. Phase I trials may be non-blinded (also known as open-label in that the researchers and perhaps subjects know whether a vaccine or placebo is used).
The goals of Phase 1 testing are to assess the safety of the candidate vaccine and to determine the type and extent of immune response that the vaccine provokes. In a small minority of Phase 1 vaccine trials, researchers may use the challenge model, attempting to infect participants with the pathogen after the experimental group has been vaccinated. The participants in these studies are carefully monitored and conditions are carefully controlled. In some cases, an attenuated, or modified, version of the pathogen is used for the challenge.
A promising Phase 1 trial will progress to the next stage.
Phase II Vaccine Trials
A larger group of several hundred individuals participates in Phase II testing. Some of the individuals may belong to groups at risk of acquiring the disease. These trials are randomized and well controlled, and include a placebo group.
The goals of Phase II testing are to study the candidate vaccine’s safety, immunogenicity, proposed doses, schedule of immunizations, and method of delivery.
Phase III Vaccine Trials
Successful Phase II candidate vaccines move on to larger trials, involving thousands to tens of thousands of people. These Phase III tests are randomized and double blind and involve the experimental vaccine being tested against a placebo (the placebo may be a saline solution, a vaccine for another disease, or some other substance).
One Phase III goal is to assess vaccine safety in a large group of people. Certain rare side effects might not surface in the smaller groups of subjects tested in earlier phases. For example, suppose that an adverse event related to a candidate vaccine might occur in 1 of every 10,000 people. To detect a significant difference for a low-frequency event, the trial would have to include 60,000 subjects, half of them in the control, or no vaccine, group (Plotkin SA et al. Vaccines, 5th ed. Philadelphia: Saunders, 2008).
Vaccine efficacy is tested as well. These factors might include 1) Does the candidate vaccine prevent disease? 2) Does it prevent infection with the pathogen? 3) Does it lead to production of antibodies or other types of immune responses related to the pathogen?
Next Steps: Approval and Licensure
In the US
After a successful Phase III trial, the vaccine developer will submit a Biologics License Application to the FDA. Then the FDA will inspect the factory where the vaccine will be made and approve the labeling of the vaccine.
After licensure, the FDA will continue to monitor the production of the vaccine, including inspecting facilities and reviewing the manufacturer’s tests of lots of vaccines for potency, safety and purity. The FDA has the right to conduct its own testing of manufacturers’ vaccines.
This whole process takes many months and very often can fail at any of the stages.
blueparrot
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But Oxford remain confident if it works they can produce a tested vaccine by September, if it’s manufactured in parallel with testing. It’s a risk but one they think is worth taking.
marco
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thanks for that,quite an extensive trial period
DrBlueBob
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Where's that Spurs fan from a while back? He'd put you both to shame.
kaz7
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Question
foreign office say we at not in EU scheme but you (hancock) say we are,who is right? Hancock says we have joined but they are providing no PPE
Allowing people to come into the country and not testing them on arrival,why not?
People can become infected before they get on a long haul flight but test negative getting off the flight,so it is difficult,Transmission is still between people already here
Closing of closing veterans helpline? Will look into it
NHS staff threatened with being punished for speaking out,will you look at this? People should be able to talk about it freely
ONS suggesting death toll higher by 40%,is the plan working? Hancock refutes that figure due to way deaths are recorded,the international comparisons depend on population and other things,learning good and bad from other countries
The plan was to bring the curve down,it has flattened,stop the NHS being overwhelmed has been done,still a vaccine to find but the core plan has worked,still more to do
foreign office say we at not in EU scheme but you (hancock) say we are,who is right? Hancock says we have joined but they are providing no PPE
Allowing people to come into the country and not testing them on arrival,why not?
People can become infected before they get on a long haul flight but test negative getting off the flight,so it is difficult,Transmission is still between people already here
Closing of closing veterans helpline? Will look into it
NHS staff threatened with being punished for speaking out,will you look at this? People should be able to talk about it freely
ONS suggesting death toll higher by 40%,is the plan working? Hancock refutes that figure due to way deaths are recorded,the international comparisons depend on population and other things,learning good and bad from other countries
The plan was to bring the curve down,it has flattened,stop the NHS being overwhelmed has been done,still a vaccine to find but the core plan has worked,still more to do
denislawsbackheel
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again sadly not true.
Phase 1 trials can take from months to 1 year.
Phase 2 trials can take from months to 2 years.
Phase 3 trials can take from months to 3 years.
They will not cut corners in any phase until they are sure.
it will NOT be ready by September.
It will not be manufactured until it is approved.
It will take months more to produce it in the billions of doses needed.
To be fair, this is exactly what Oxford have said directly. It's not unreasonable to trust its possible as a result.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52329659
"When will it be ready?
The team are already putting plans in place to mass produce the vaccine, even before they know whether it will work.
"The aim is to have at least a million doses by about September, once you know the vaccine efficacy results and then move even faster from there," said Prof Adrian Hill, who runs the Jenner Institute at Oxford, .
"It's pretty clear the world is going to need hundreds of millions of doses, ideally by the end of this year, to end this pandemic, to lead us out of lockdown.
He described a million doses as a "fairly modest target" and vaccines as "the exit strategy" for coronavirus."
They are injecting two groups and injecting one with a meningitis vaccine and one with their new vaccine. I think there's 500 people involved.
They will then monitor which group gets infected. In a challenge test they deliberately infect the groups but in this case they will not. They just wait and see who gets infected. The problem is now that we are in lockdown and virus transmission is low so this is going to slow down the vaccine development. This phase of the trial requires rapid infection.
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