COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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karen7 said:
There a dr on CNN tonite,he said they are finding with the antibody test that you can have a high level of antibodies but not have much immunity because it s not the number you have but how well they work,you need antibodies that work very well in blocking the virus,i suppose this is why it is difficult to get a great test and scientists hovering a bit on the immunity question
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With your daily death rates and posts like this you take away any hope we all have, your the grim reaper on here
I’ve stopped drinking but have now ordered a bottle of gin cheers:)
 
SWP's back said:
Looks like a huge phishing scam. “Hey download all this data to your system and see what’s in it”
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The idea that Bill Gates - a man who has given 90% of his wealth away and who spends all his time now working on ways to try to help mankind and to end suffering wherever he can - is somehow connected with all this (in a bad way)? It's so ridiculous, anyone who thinks it must genuinely be somewhat insane.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Thanks for posting that. I'd expected similarly low levels but useful to see another source suggesting same.

If anyone is still clinging to the herd immunity daft idea then that should kill it off.

Just 4% of the UK population infected has resulted in 20,000 dead already. Surely no-one can now think that allowing the rest of us to catch this can possibly be a good idea.

These figures bring with them some hope of a favourable long term outcome IMO.

1. They mean the overall death rate for infections is perhaps around 0.7% - and certainly under 1% - which although terrible compared to flu, is still much lower than the current headline figures.

2. It would seem to indicate it's not as infectious as other models might have suggested, or else more would be infected already.

2. If only 1 person in 25 you might bump into has had this - and a much lower number have currently got it and are infectious - then your chances of avoiding it by appropriate protections and social distancing might be relatively high. Were the community spread much more pervasive, then this would obviously be much less likely and chances are we'd all get it before a vaccine arrives. Now there is some hope that most of us can avoid it until a vaccine arrives.
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Excellent post, bit of positively at last.
 
Gelsons Dad said:
I'm afraid neither nurse Campbell or the WHO have any fucking idea.

Imperial College estimates:
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Worth noting that would also mean that both the U.K. and Germany have the exact same CFR of 0.7% and therefore the only thing Germany is doing better at is, testing. This then makes it look as though a smaller percentage die as they’re testing mild and asymptomatic cases.
 
SWP's back said:
Worth noting that would also mean that both the U.K. and Germany have the exact same CFR of 0.7% and therefore the only thing Germany is doing better at is, testing. This then makes it look as though a smaller percentage die as they’re testing mild and asymptomatic cases.
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I am not really up to speed on German's reaction but that would make sense if they then isolate the mild cases track and check who they have been in contact with and potentially intervene earlier would make perfect sense their figures would be lower than ours.
 
ganganvince said:
I am not really up to speed on German's reaction but that would make sense if they then isolate the mild cases track and check who they have been in contact with and potentially intervene earlier would make perfect sense their figures would be lower than ours.
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That may explain why they have fewer overall cases than the U.K. despite a 30% higher population if they’ve been doing track and trace.

My main point was simply that everyone had been wondering what they were doing differently to have such a low CFR (on confirmed cases). The answer is that it’s nothing to do with treatment, they still die at the same rate as the U.K. They just test more mild and asymptomatic cases and therefore have more mild and asymptomatic cases ‘confirmed’.
 
Just an idea and for the sake of the economy - could they ask everyone under the age of 40, with no symptoms and no underlying health issues and not living with anyone vulnerable to go back to work whilst keeping social distancing rules and wear a mask - and everyone else has to remain in lockdown ?
 
BlueHammer85 said:
Just an idea and for the sake of the economy - could they ask everyone under the age of 40, with no symptoms and no underlying health issues and not living with anyone vulnerable to go back to work whilst keeping social distancing rules and wear a mask - and everyone else has to remain in lockdown ?
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It is inevitable that our transition out of lockdown will have to be progressive. What that will mean in terms of who will be allowed to do what initially, remains to be seen.
 
SWP's back said:
That may explain why they have fewer overall cases than the U.K. despite a 30% higher population if they’ve been doing track and trace.

My main point was simply that everyone had been wondering what they were doing differently to have such a low CFR (on confirmed cases). The answer is that it’s nothing to do with treatment, they still die at the same rate as the U.K. They just test more mild and asymptomatic cases and therefore have more mild and asymptomatic cases ‘confirmed’.
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It was never going to be about their treatment Vs ours. The only way that could have explained things was if perhaps our health service was overloaded and unable to treat many critical cases, and there's was not. But clearly this has not been the case.

And were there some differences in the treatments being administered which produced such starkly better outcomes in Germany, then surely the UK and other countries would have adopted them already.

(Their average age and obesity levels would not give them any advantage either.)

It always had to be that they had lower spread than comparable countries. These figures just confirm it.
 
Chippy_boy said:
It was never going to be about their treatment Vs ours. The only way that could have explained things was if perhaps our health service was overloaded and unable to treat many critical cases, and there's was not. But clearly this has not been the case.

And were there some differences in the treatments being administered which produced such starkly better outcomes in Germany, then surely the UK and other countries would have adopted them already.

(Their average age and obesity levels would not give them any advantage either.)

It always had to be that they had lower spread than comparable countries. These figures just confirm it.
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Yeah I always said I believed the difference was that they were either under reporting CV19 deaths (due to underlying conditions) or simply testing more mild cases than we were. But it’s good to see that supposition supported by data.

If you remember, originally it was some guff about the infected being skiers and so they were fitter and younger etc.
 
I thought I'd heard it said that Germany only record cases tested confirmed by a doctor. Might be wrong but it might explain the significantly lower number.
 
Gaylord du Bois said:
I thought I'd heard it said that Germany only record cases tested confirmed by a doctor. Might be wrong but it might explain the significantly lower number.
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The above table isn't confirmed cases bud. It's estimated infection rates across the entire country based on sample and random antibody tests and a number of other measures.
 
BosnianBlue said:
Apparently, countries with obligatory vaccination against tuberculosis have some 10 times less infection and death rates than those where that vaccination is not obligatory.
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Interesting. Where have you read/heard this?

In Britain we had the BCG vaccine (that contained TB) for 14 year olds from 1953 to 2005.
 
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Gaylord du Bois said:
I thought I'd heard it said that Germany only record cases tested confirmed by a doctor. Might be wrong but it might explain the significantly lower number.
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They test everyone with symptoms and then isolate outbreaks. This is what we should have done, but we did not prepare and don't have the testing facilities.
 
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