COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Gaylord du Bois]

The longer we're in Catch 22 the more likely we are to get to a point where the public say, "ah fuck it". and off we go.
Unless there's a significant freeing up I'm predicting we'll be at this point by the end of June and it's got the potential to get seriously nasty.

 

[Marvin]

Made this point the other day. Why after weeks of lockdown, not just in the Uk, are thousands still being infected. Are they all people who are working normally across the world? Is it because asymptomatic people are passing it on? What’s going on?

And can someone ask them whether they think it would be good practise to totally suppress the virus. They present their strategy as There is no Alternative and it will take a year, well how come South Korea have for the last two days had 6 and 8 new cases respectively?

I believe that they are deliberately playing the long game because they want to go for immunity but we don't even know if this is a practical proposition. It maybe the right thing to do (I doubt it is but we don't know about the extent of infection, and how many people have had it) but they should at least be honest and explain their position and their rationale otherwise people will look elsewhere and doubts will grow.

 

[Marvin]

Totally agree.
After 4 weeks of lockdown, the virus is still spreading with a Reproduction Number (Rn) of pretty much one. How is this still occurring?

Because of what's not occurring in the UK: mass-testing. They could do it if they want but choose not to.

USA now targets their clusters and tests them and takes the heat out of them. This is what South Korea do. It works. What it doesn't do of course is give you immunity and therein possibly lies the answer as to why the UK epidemic is persistent.

How the epidemic grows is as much a function of what we do as it is of the characteristics of the virus.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

If the price of the Etihad being open is no pubs open beforehand, most City fans would take that. Drinking in pubs before a game is a minority pastime.

the point is social distancing .

you cannot social distance in a crowd be that in the etihad or in the pub .

anyway happy St. George’s day to you

 

[Marvin]

Made this point the other day. Why after weeks of lockdown, not just in the Uk, are thousands still being infected. Are they all people who are working normally across the world? Is it because asymptomatic people are passing it on? What’s going on?

Sub-maximal suppression. UK labs have capacity to do 20,000 additional tests per day. We could for weeks have been doing contact tracing. They wont do this until just in advance of the lockdown.

 

[BlueHammer85]

wouldn't it be nice if once a year, the whole world isolated for one month - just to let the planet breathe like it is doing right now.

logistically it probably wouldn't work, economic impact and humans would have their annual fight over loo rolls and que for Guns.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

If the price of the Etihad being open is no pubs open beforehand, most City fans would take that. Drinking in pubs before a game is a minority pastime.

Have you seen how packed the Mets are pre- and post-game?

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

The longer we're in Catch 22 the more likely we are to get to a point where the public say, "ah fuck it". and off we go.
Unless there's a significant freeing up I'm predicting we'll be at this point by the end of June and it's got the potential to get seriously nasty.

particularly as we see on the news other countries relaxing now and we are not .

people will get frustrated

the message was lock down to allow the nhs to cope during the peak which we have done now and they are changing the rules (every day it seems !)

 

[BlueRockape]

How long will it be before the economy overtakes health as a priority? Whilst I agree health is super important the long term effects of a broken economy could be just as damaging. A scenario of millions unemployed, more government cuts, poverty, mental health issues, crime etc will also be catastrophic. It’s a very difficult balancing act and one the government needs to get right.

I think we have seen the tip of this already in the good old USA

 

[twosips]

The longer we're in Catch 22 the more likely we are to get to a point where the public say, "ah fuck it". and off we go.
Unless there's a significant freeing up I'm predicting we'll be at this point by the end of June and it's got the potential to get seriously nasty.

Almost certainly this will happen. Government messaging has basically disappeared. Need some urgency, unless they're fine with it, which I suspect they are tbh.

 

[Elbow beards]

The longer we're in Catch 22 the more likely we are to get to a point where the public say, "ah fuck it". and off we go.
Unless there's a significant freeing up I'm predicting we'll be at this point by the end of June and it's got the potential to get seriously nasty.

I don't see how they can have social distancing till end of the year, if people are going back to work (which we are going to have to do) I can see a "if you get it you get it" attitude coming and herd immunity kicking in by default or design.

 

[purplenose]

I am sorry to say that these countries relaxing things could be making a grave mistake. Thankfully we are seemingly going to keep a careful eye on what occurs before doing anything here. Very wise in my view.

On the basis of what I expect to see elsewhere I fear that we will remain in lock down for sometime yet. People ignore it and we will all suffer for it.

I firmly believe there will be vaccines and treatments available quicker than is currently thought and as a result 12 months from now things will be pretty much as they were prior to this outbreak, in terms of being able to socialise and mix at least.

Until those treatments and vaccines I am increasingly thinking that little will be able to change from what we are doing now. Maybe schools and unis back in September, some business and shops open in the summer. Pubs restaurants, theatres, Sport no chance.

 

[BlueRockape]

I have spent several weeks now listening to the Downing St press briefings with the media banging on about their agenda, the same every day. Can someone explain why all the journalists are their papers/broadcasters Political ‘correspondents’. This is not a political issue, let’s have qualified questioners. Like them or not the Tories are the government, plenty of time afterwards to politicise this issue. I want proper questions asked like; after a month of lockdown how come we are still getting over 4,000 new cases every day? What are these people doing to catch it?

Now into six weeks here in Spain I know it's slowing but still a lot of new cases and lockdown is being enforced vigorously here ( SOME POLICE VIDEO TO VIGOROUS ) how can it still be climbing.
My theory is its surviving in the atmosphere ?

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

particularly as we see on the news other countries relaxing now and we are not .

people will get frustrated

the message was lock down to allow the nhs to cope during the peak which we have done now and they are changing the rules (every day it seems !)

My youngest is 30 today. He's stuck at home with us. He's not worked since the lockdown. He's in a 3 year relationship with his girlfriend. She's NHS. She goes home to an empty house. They want to spend time together. It's pitting them against right and wrong. At the moment they're doing the right thing. It won't be long before they don't.

 

[Marvin]

I am sorry to say that these countries relaxing things could be making a grave mistake. Thankfully we are seemingly going to keep a careful eye on what occurs before doing anything here. Very wise in my view.

On the basis of what I expect to see elsewhere I fear that we will remain in lock down for sometime yet. People ignore it and we will all suffer for it.

I firmly believe there will be vaccines and treatments available quicker than is currently thought and as a result 12 months from now things will be pretty much as they were prior to this outbreak, in terms of being able to socialise and mix at least.

Until those treatments and vaccines I am increasingly thinking that little will be able to change from what we are doing now. Maybe schools and unis back in September, some business and shops open in the summer. Pubs restaurants, theatres, Sport no chance.

A drug treatment might actually only be days away from being announced, but by the same token hopes could just as well be dashed (Remdesivir clinical trial results imminent).

At the moment fear dominates but the virus is going to more or less disappear from some of the European countries if they continue mass testing which I am sure they will. Then questions will be asked here. This is not like it was in January and February. You can now station 5 minute testing kits at airports and transport hubs. We will shortly be able to test for antibodies and those people who have had it can go back to work. The positives of which there are many are just not being identified or pursued and leveraged here in the UK.

The UK is playing the long game fearing and wave but with surveillance testing, I really don't see a 2nd wave hitting Europe, or the US. If mass immunity is a realistic target then it might be worth pursuing even if it will cost a significant lives in the short term as it will provide a guarantee in the long term but at the moment there is no evidence that this is workable.

 

[Marvin]

Now into six weeks here in Spain I know it's slowing but still a lot of new cases and lockdown is being enforced vigorously here ( SOME POLICE VIDEO TO VIGOROUS ) how can it still be climbing.
My theory is its surviving in the atmosphere ?

And yet not in the Chinese or South Korean atmosphere.

 

[Brendan110_0]

Now into six weeks here in Spain I know it's slowing but still a lot of new cases and lockdown is being enforced vigorously here ( SOME POLICE VIDEO TO VIGOROUS ) how can it still be climbing.
My theory is its surviving in the atmosphere ?

Aircon is widely used (especially now it's warming up), maybe the virus is surviving in the units and spreading in the air.

 

[grunge]

The longer we're in Catch 22 the more likely we are to get to a point where the public say, "ah fuck it". and off we go.
Unless there's a significant freeing up I'm predicting we'll be at this point by the end of June and it's got the potential to get seriously nasty.

Im almost 100% sure this is why they are starting to get the army chief's into the briefings.

it maybe just me being cynical but I think the closer we get to unrest ( and this was modelled at the start, "lock down fatigue" I think they classed it as ) the more we sill see police and Army involved as a subconscious reminder that they are there and ready.

 

[grunge]

And yet not in the Chinese or South Korean atmosphere.

it has been shown to be attaching to pollution particles in Italy so its certainly an element of it.

Both China and South Korea disinfected streets which maybe helping?



which we are not doing in Europe that I have seen, even though Russia sent one of these to Italy

 

[BlueRockape]

And yet not in the Chinese or South Korean atmosphere.

Aircon is widely used (especially now it's warming up), maybe the virus is surviving in the units and spreading in the air.

Maybe I should have said it seems to be surviving longer and traveling further.
Personally I don't believe the Chinese figures.
Air conditioning..... it's still very cool here so I don't think it has yet any effect maybe next month