COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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twosips said:
Some contrasting messages there. It's not an official trial, but it's also the first comprehensive clinical trial? What's the difference?
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the official trial is being conducted by Gilead, the company that produces the drug and there trial will have a larger sample size than the Chinese one and therefore should provide more comprehensive data when results are released in the next few weeks as they will have also tested the drug at various stages of the patients point of infection.

China’s trial ran out of recruits to come to a definitive conclusion but still retained some elements of what a more extensive trial would undertake...let’s see what their findings are.
 
Tomorrow - Friday - I should have been having a colonoscopy. Had one before and not a big deal for me - better safe than sorry. Its a regular 3 year screening thing. It was cancelled 3 weeks ago and on hearing tonight that 2 people died today of Covid-19 in the hospital where I was supposed to go I have to say I feel thats a result. I would have cancelled myself had the NHS not done so for me - hospitals are a dangerous place at the moment and I really wouldn't want to be there. Thats why we clap those who work there on a Thursday - hero's seems too small a word
 
davek1808 said:
Mate's funeral tomorrow, can't even go or give him the send off he deserves but will have a good drink for him in the house.
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Hard times mate. Matters not the cause of death the funeral rules remain the same- I am wondering whether - when this is all over - there will be so many families and groups wanting to hold a memorial service that maybe there needs to be a day of national remembrance - like remembrance day - when the nation can join together in church services to remember those who passed and for whom there was no service, no wake no nothing?
 
AlgarveBlu said:
GD wrote a credible hypothesis on this back on page 3510
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Either way - lungs or nicotine maybe they should be re-writing the messages on fag packets
 
bluethrunthru said:
Hard times mate. Matters not the cause of death the funeral rules remain the same- I am wondering whether - when this is all over - there will be so many families and groups wanting to hold a memorial service that maybe there needs to be a day of national remembrance - like remembrance day - when the nation can join together in church services to remember those who passed and for whom there was no service, no wake no nothing?
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Yeah that sounds like a good idea mate, we'll all get together at some point in the future and mourn those who have left us during this awful virus.
 
Marvin said:
Big news from New York.

They've done their State-wide antibody survey. 14.9% statewide have antibodies which rises to 21.9% in New York City.

The Death Rate from Covid is 0.5% based on US antibody data (includes hospitals and nursing homes but excludes other Covid deaths)

I believe if you have recently been infected you don't produce antibodies. On the basis of that what do you do? It's actually a much much bigger number than I expected. Is it accurate? if it is, is herd immunity realistic given the wave has been and gone? Perhaps it is.

It certainly make the UK government strategy of sustained infection a little more credible in my eyes. I don't know what to think now. Perhaps just digest the news. I think it's good news to be honest. It means that there could be a way out without a vaccine but it will take a long long time.
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[I posted this earlier, with a mistake, deleted it, and then got distracted, but think it's now what I meant to say.]

Help me out, as I really can't grasp how this is good news (except in the sense it could be worse).

Wikipedia says (yesterday) 257,216 confirmed cases (1.25% of the population) and of those 15,302 people have died. That's 6% mortality rate. I think the 0.5% "death rate" is based on 20,000,000 x 15% with antibodies x 0.5% = 15.000. So 0.5% is the death rate from people who've had it and people who've not had it but have antibodies (mortality is deaths relative to cases).

15% in New York have antibodies (if the test is accurate); that might suggest that 11 out of 12 people who have coronavirus antibodies didn't catch Covid (were those with antibodies asked about symptoms?) and perhaps the vast majority might not even have noticed.

Let's assume antibodies do mean you can't get it again. Let's say a similar number have natural immunity (without producing antibodies). That would be 30% of the population. But that may mean at least 14 million people in the State haven't been exposed to the virus and are still at risk - and, 35,000 more might die. Unless you can test how many people have actually avoided infection when they were exposed to the virus, that's a lot of people to go before you prove herd immunity is a good idea.

(If most of those who have died were in urban areas and travelling on public transport, you'd hope more rural areas would be less affected - but then the period over which people do get infected would just be extended, at least until a vaccine arrives.)

Frankly, I'm not sure either of the maths or the logic, but I think talk of "good news" might feed the optimism of ending restrictions. Now where's Dr Fauci when you need him.
 
Alarms bells are going off when they say a Vaccine is close, close to what? They don't even know as a matter of fact that wearing a protective face mask will actually help, They don't even know as a matter of fact where and how the Virus originated, Of course there is speculation and opinions but what use are they? When you look at the statistics there are some very obscure and remote countries with cases of Covid surely a 'carrier' must of entered their country to enable a spread otherwise it would of 'appeared' from nowhere, surely these small countries have data to see how it started in these places, a passport as a starter. How come at such precise timing the majority of countries seem to be on a positive trajectory?
 
Worzel Gummidge#9 said:
Alarms bells are going off when they say a Vaccine is close, close to what? They don't even know as a matter of fact that wearing a protective face mask will actually help, They don't even know as a matter of fact where and how the Virus originated, Of course there is speculation and opinions but what use are they? When you look at the statistics there are some very obscure and remote countries with cases of Covid surely a 'carrier' must of entered their country to enable a spread otherwise it would of 'appeared' from nowhere, surely these small countries have data to see how it started in these places, a passport as a starter. How come at such precise timing the majority of countries seem to be on a positive trajectory?
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because the world has been on a lockdown for the last couple months ?
 
'New Caledonia' has anyone even heard of this country because there are cases there, Surely such a small country they're aware of who is coming and who is going i.e the carrier??
 
Worzel Gummidge#9 said:
Alarms bells are going off when they say a Vaccine is close, close to what? They don't even know as a matter of fact that wearing a protective face mask will actually help, They don't even know as a matter of fact where and how the Virus originated, Of course there is speculation and opinions but what use are they? When you look at the statistics there are some very obscure and remote countries with cases of Covid surely a 'carrier' must of entered their country to enable a spread otherwise it would of 'appeared' from nowhere, surely these small countries have data to see how it started in these places, a passport as a starter. How come at such precise timing the majority of countries seem to be on a positive trajectory?
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To be fair, you don't need the answer to most of those questions to make a vaccine. And if we're being honest, they definitely know a mask helps. They're just not putting that out there as there's shortages and the NHS need them. Chances are most countries don't know where it came from because some random person one day went on a business trip or holiday somewhere, unintentionally spread it, and then get on a plane and went home. That person might not ever know they had it either. How are they meant to find that person then? And that still makes no difference to the vaccine.
 
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Worzel Gummidge#9 said:
'New Caledonia' has anyone even heard of this country because there are cases there, Surely such a small country they're aware of who is coming and who is going i.e the carrier??
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It's an island not far from Australia. It's pretty obvious they'll have regular flights to and from Australia. According to google, there's 280k people on that island, and they only have 18 confirmed cases. Why is it so hard to imagine they're not sure who spread it? Could have been anyone. Even if they have an idea, they can't exactly call them back to the island to test them can they? All it takes is one asymptomatic person on a flight. Dead easy.
 
BlueAnorak said:
I've read some wierd stuff during this pandemic, but this just about caps it all. Could the MMR vaccination offer protection to those of a younger age?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/23/possible-mmr-offers-protection-covid-19
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That's mad. Just found this article too.

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articl...oronavirus-rubella-virus-help-mmr-vaccine.htm

Fingers crossed there's actually sumat in it! ps - I can't read that Telegraph article, but it's not baseless, apparently. Well in theory at least.
 
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