COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Aer Lingus flight from Belfast into Heathrow last Monday
 
Cityfan said:
I don't think we know enough about the virus yet to know whether it is the cytokine storm that kills most patients or whether reducing the viral replication with treatment will stop the cyto kine storm or whether giving monoclonal antibodies in conjunction with other drugs would stop the cytokine storm.
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According to my daughter, Its definately the Cytokine Storm killing most patients. The frailty of many older patients who can't be put on a ventilator is the other much lower morbidity.
 
Nightmare Walking said:
Moboclonal antibodies do work. I was on Infliximab for a while. Thing is, I had to have it pumped into my veins every month, it took a few months for it to work and then my body started having adverse reactions to it after about about 2 years.

Now this stuff the Israelis are working on may be totally different, I have no idea of the science. I just know from my own experience of biological treatments, it was not as simple as an injection and it starts curing you immediately. The side effects were also pretty horrendous for afew days after having it administered.

Long term, a vaccine would be better imo. If biologicals can be used to help keeping people alive then great, as a long term solution, I am a bit dubious.
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Vaccines are definitely preferable. They reduce the number of people who become very ill, and thus the strains brought on by treating them.

Antibodies - pretty much what you say. Each antibody will bind to a small number of virus particles. However virus particles get themselves replicated by the body, meaning you need more antibodies. Capturing all virus particles with antibodies is basically impossible. It does however reduce the amount of virus active in the body, and thus makes patients less ill, and more likely to recover. There can be side effects as you mention, as you're injecting with foreign substances.

The two studies on these may generate different, but similar, antibodies, which is a good thing really. One may be better than the other in the long run, and any first generation antibody will likely be developed further over the years.
 
BlueAnorak said:
According to my daughter, Its definately the Cytokine Storm killing most patients. The frailty of many older patients who can't be put on a ventilator is the other much lower morbidity.
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I don't think we know that well enough and we certainly don't know what the effect of giving mabs directed at the virus would have on any cytokine storm.
 
BlueAnorak said:
According to my daughter, Its definately the Cytokine Storm killing most patients. The frailty of many older patients who can't be put on a ventilator is the other much lower morbidity.
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Yesterday it was announced that several hospitals in southern Spain are trialing for a month an arthritic drug that reduces the immune system response that apparently is a big factor in many CV deaths.
 
SilverFox2 said:
Yesterday it was announced that several hospitals in southern Spain are trialing for a month an arthritic drug that reduces the immune system response that apparently is a big factor in many CV deaths.
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As so much money is being ploughed into fighting this virus, tne one good thing that could come out of this virus is treatments to stop the immune system going into overdrive.
 
BlueAnorak said:
We're not the only one though.
Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, France and Australia are five others not taking the Apple/Google route. There are more besides.
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Scotland has its own app based on the strategy document issued yesterday. It will only use the UK app (as well as its own) once the UK app proves to be secure.
 
ONS weekly death data out
Barely any change in reported COVID-19 deaths as deaths in care are now included in the daily death toll. That said there are still a massive number of other deaths because nobody is going to hospital for other reasons.
 
BlueAnorak said:
ONS weekly death data out
Barely any change in reported COVID-19 deaths as deaths in care are now included in the daily death toll. That said there are still a massive number of other deaths because nobody is going to hospital for other reasons.
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Listened to a cancer expert a week or so back who stated that he thought the deaths resulting in people not getting checked or having their appointments cancelled delayed could easily result in more people dying of cancer than from covid19 in the UK. Sobering thought.
 
BlueAnorak said:
ONS weekly death data out
Barely any change in reported COVID-19 deaths as deaths in care are now included in the daily death toll. That said there are still a massive number of other deaths because nobody is going to hospital for other reasons.
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Updated weekly deaths.

avarage-Deaths-Week17.png


Covid Deaths over the last 17 weeks with age breakdown.
deaths-Week17.png


Edit:

This week.
total 21,997
5 years average 10,458
=
Covid 8,237
Non Covid = 3302

Covid vs Non Covid.

Covidvs-Non-Covid-Deaths.png



All Data from here.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...nalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
 
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Saddleworth2 said:
No, you are right. Words matter with this stuff. I should have said accountable. It’s exactly the same in finance with an Accountable Executive. However, a pandemic crisis the like of which we haven’t seen in 100 years is not a poor quality sandwich or unattended bed pan (serious though that is). There is a scale of the risk surrounding pandemic which should make it pretty high on the SOS agenda from day one of his tenure. So Hancock is the accountable executive in this case.

Any mistakes made by him or his supporting infrastructure previously should wait for the public enquiry. For now, he is accountable for the plan to get us out of this which I sincerely hope he can present soon.
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I said that I would come back to this - and that for me it should mean we have clarity and understanding of where accountability and responsibility previously resided and resides currently and into the future. I mentioned that it splits into a number of areas......

1. As you say, now that the 'Executive' has 'stepped in' and are directly managing events "......For now, he is accountable for the plan to get us out of this which I sincerely hope he can present soon."

Absolutely - and direct management responsibility should continue until the situation - via the achievement of pre-determined criteria - is deemed to be under an appropriate level of control and thereby demonstrating that management responsibility can then be transferred back to PHE, DHSC and the NHS.

Essentially - in contractual jargon - having exercised Step-in rights - that would be the Executive managing 'Step-out’.

2. It also means that, in the period until the Executive stepped-in, the responsibility for planning, preparation and management of all aspects of a potential pandemic (or any other health sector crisis) is/always was clearly with PHE, DHSC and the NHS.

This included clearly – amongst many other responsibilities - any aspects of Procurement - via NHS Procurement, e.g. of PPE and any instructions to Care Homes on their planning and preparations, e.g. PPE stocks - via NHS Commissioning functions.

There has been a lot of confused misplacing of blame in these regards.

3. As I mentioned - this explains the difference between 'Accountability' and 'Responsibility for planning and provision'. The Executive - e.g. the SoS and PM, will always be accountable for all areas of Public Services - but the responsibility for planning and delivery resides with the appropriate departments.

So, yes Hancock became the Accountable Officer in December and, like Hunt before him and all their predecessors, whether Conservative or Labour, will have been briefed by PHE and the NHS CEO on the status of the priority areas. As part of this, in relation to the potential for a pandemic, PHE will have briefed on their responsibilities for planning and preparation and Simon Stevens would have briefed on areas of capacity and procurements.

Unless there emerges any evidence that those briefings included escalations for Executive support that were denied - then the SoS will have quite rightly, after asking challenging questions, taken confidence that PHE, DHSC and the NHS Board were fulfilling their responsibilities.
 
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Posted this in the other thread by mistake. Luckily I managed to get out of there alive.

Looks like they're going have to retest a load more cases to be sure.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
not a chance dr bluemoon has stated many times there is no chance this was around before January . No chance.
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If this proves to be correct then he would most probably have contracted it between December 7th & 10th.
I just don't see how it can go undetected in the area for that long.
 
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