COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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grunge said:
Updated weekly deaths.

avarage-Deaths-Week17.png


Covid Deaths over the last 17 weeks with age breakdown.
deaths-Week17.png


Edit:

This week.
total 21,997
5 years average 10,458
=
Covid 8,237
Non Covid = 3302

Covid vs Non Covid.

Covidvs-Non-Covid-Deaths.png
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Yeah, been looking at that data release this morning too. Fair play for including it, but I really find the covid vs non covid deaths a pointless distinction in the sense that it’s hard to know how many are with/of it etc. The 21k for 2020 vs 10k 5 year norm for all deaths is the only number that matters for me. I suppose the crumb of comfort is it’s now plateaued after 22k last week, but considering we are now 2nd place behind USA (aren’t we?) we’re not in a great place overall. Wonder what will happen to that 21k number after the easing?
Cheers for including the age break down. The regional covid figures looked a worry last night for those of us living in NW England.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
not a chance dr bluemoon has stated many times there is no chance this was around before January . No chance.
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the thing is, the odd case may well have been here, but it certainly wasn't here and spreading widely.

the whole "there was a bad cough doing the rounds in Nov/Dec, that must have been Covid" just doesn't hold up.
 
Gaylord du Bois said:
Posted this in the other thread by mistake. Luckily I managed to get out of there alive.

Looks like they're going have to retest a load more cases to be sure.
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Patient "infected" between 14th and 22nd of December and hadn't travelled anywhere, but could have been infected by asymptomatic wife who worked in a shop near an airport, who would have to have been infected between 1st and 9th December, which is well before there was widespread reported infection in China.
 
Interesting information from Sir Patrick Vallence in his appearence before the Health Committee.
1. Britain's outbreak genetically ties back to half term holidays with people returning from Italy and to a lesser extent Spain.
2. The risk of catching Covid is the same for social distancing for being:
- Two metres apart for 1 minute; AND
- One metre apart for 6 SECONDS.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/coronavirus-risk-10-30-times-21975706

The second point means public transport can't be restarted without people wearing face masks and really when you go shopping you should wear one too.

The first point shows how laughable our policies at our airports have been and still are.
 
chesterbells said:
Yeah, been looking at that data release this morning too. Fair play for including it, but I really find the covid vs non covid deaths a pointless distinction in the sense that it’s hard to know how many are with/of it etc. The 21k for 2020 vs 10k 5 year norm for all deaths is the only number that matters for me. I suppose the crumb of comfort is it’s now plateaued after 22k last week, but considering we are now 2nd place behind USA (aren’t we?) we’re not in a great place overall. Wonder what will happen to that 21k number after the easing?
Cheers for including the age break down. The regional covid figures looked a worry last night for those of us living in NW England.
Click to expand...

Agreed, i posted it as the question was posed in the quoted response.

its impossible to say if they are deaths caused by the lockdown and neglect from the medical system or if they are just diagnosed cases.
 
Think the mirror have a story on this too...seeing and avalanche of people on FB saying that horrid flu cough loads had over Christmas (we had) was CV19.
But my son had the flu jab and was the only one not affected...
 
I won’t be installing the app.
I know several idiots that claim they’ve “had” covid 19 after a couple of days coughing and temperature.
I don’t want them self diagnosing, ticking the right boxes on the app and then the app telling everyone who has been near them to self isolate.
Not to mention the idiot who has moved on from gobbing at coppers to wandering around randomly in areas of high footfall then feigning symptoms.
Mind you it would be a great way of hitting your business competitors wouldn’t it?
From what was said on Newsnight on tv yesterday you say you have symptoms and are them put through a tick box list by the app. Depending on your responses you are then asked if you would like the results to be sent to the app owners for notification of contacts. You can agree or defer.
No mention of getting a test.
 
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cleavers said:
Patient "infected" between 14th and 22nd of December and hadn't travelled anywhere, but could have been infected by asymptomatic wife who worked in a shop near an airport, who would have to have been infected between 1st and 9th December, which is well before there was widespread reported infection in China.
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Isn't 2-5 days before symptoms generally appear ?
 
chesterbells said:
Yeah, been looking at that data release this morning too. Fair play for including it, but I really find the covid vs non covid deaths a pointless distinction in the sense that it’s hard to know how many are with/of it etc. The 21k for 2020 vs 10k 5 year norm for all deaths is the only number that matters for me. I suppose the crumb of comfort is it’s now plateaued after 22k last week, but considering we are now 2nd place behind USA (aren’t we?) we’re not in a great place overall. Wonder what will happen to that 21k number after the easing?
Cheers for including the age break down. The regional covid figures looked a worry last night for those of us living in NW England.
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Still behind Italy and Spain I believe as well as the States.
 
SWP's back said:
Still behind Italy and Spain I believe as well as the States.
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Apologies mate, I wasn’t clear; I meant deaths not cases.
Having said that, I was still wrong - just checked the JHU dashboard and were are still behind Italy for deaths (just), but ahead of Spain now.
 
somapop said:
Think the mirror have a story on this too...seeing and avalanche of people on FB saying that horrid flu cough loads had over Christmas (we had) was CV19.
But my son had the flu jab and was the only one not affected...
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yeah there are loads of people I know saying the same thing but it just doesn't pan out when you check the numbers. take a look at the image I posted on the last page and point people at the data. If loads of people had it in Dec, that spike in deaths would have happened in Dec.

https://forums.bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk/threads/covid-19-—-coronavirus.344314/page-3832#post-12635839

I added a link to the data source
 
I think a few of us have (perhaps understandably) had these thoughts. Was a very unusual bout of flu that appeared highly contagious and with a prolonged (3-4 weeks) persistent cough. Christmas was a write off this year due to it.
 
I understand people want to have had it around christmas, cos that'd be great! It'd mean more would have had it... but I've still not seen any viable explanation why loads of people weren't dying around christmas then too? Why are the death tallies only what they are now? There's gonna have to be some undeniable evidence for many to take it seriously that it was around in the UK then, other than anecdotes about how everyone felt shite around flu season.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Median is 5.1 days
14 days is 99% quartile
I think 2.1 days is the minimum (1% quartile)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7081172/
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I suppose it depends how big a load you get when becoming infected, if its small its likely to take longer, and if its big less time, but if true the case in France is likely to have been created in mid December at least, a long time before it was apparently in Europe, there weren't even that many reported cases in China at that point.

The one thing we don't really know, as not enough have been tested, is how long you can asymptomatic for, most of those tested have been ill with it, once ill and tested you can measure the time that you are ill, but difficult to measure someone who isn't ill.
 
SilverFox2 said:
Yesterday it was announced that several hospitals in southern Spain are trialing for a month an arthritic drug that reduces the immune system response that apparently is a big factor in many CV deaths.
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This is the thing I don't understand. Are the immunisuppressents just for kmlatter stage Covid? I am in the most vunerable category because I am using 40mg of Prednisolone. Ored is a steroid that suppresses my immune system in the hope it will stop it attacking my digestive tract.

Do you need a healthy immune system from the off, so it can fight it off, in the hope it does not go mad? Then if it develops too much, they dampen the immune system with suppressents?
BlueAnorak said:
As so much money is being ploughed into fighting this virus, tne one good thing that could come out of this virus is treatments to stop the immune system going into overdrive.
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somapop said:
See above.
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Agreed on that part, there was certainly some sort of long running nasty cough doing the rounds which has caused this correlation to be doing the rounds.

I did contemplate the idea that maybe 2 strains are doing the rounds. 1 that doesn't cause Pneumonia and started a few months before or spread far quicker but what are the odds of that happening?

the conspiracy theorist part of me does think, if covid was an accidental lab leak in Wuhan, and they were investigating the pathogen origin of SARS 1, then if 1 sample leaked why not 2....
 
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