COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Chippy_boy said:
Lots of fair comment in there.

However, let's go back to where this little sub-debate started. I responded to a suggestion that some people were peddling the idea that we had done marvellously. My comment was "I think by most judgements we have not done well." If we cannot yet conclude that we have done badly, then by the same token we cannot conclude that we have done well either.

My personal view remains that thinking that herd immunity in any form can be any kind of solution and that it should in any way drive our thinking and strategy, is completely bonkers. It makes no sense on many, many levels. Perhaps the first and most profound is that we really have no agreement the levels of immunity which those previously infected might have. That pulls the rug out from under the strategy, right from the start. Potentially we allow millions of additional, preventable infections and the corresponding thousands or tens of thousands of additional, preventable deaths... for no benefit whatsoever.

And even if we do have a degree of immunity after infection, is it conclusive that we have roughly 5x the levels of infection across the UK compared to Germany and that as a nation as a whole, we are now more immune than they are? (We have 4x the numbers of dead, in a population only 80% of their size). Because if we do not, then our approach - vs theirs - has failed. I do not know the answer to that and I am not sure anyone really does yet.

EDIT: And sorry I forgot your opening line, "It depends what the advantage is". The advantage we had was that we could see how things were unfolding in Italy and had time to take actions to prevent the same from unfolding here.
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Thanks for the reply. I appreciate your comments.

Yes I think there is a question mark about whether immune response fades over time. That could change everything.
 
Can all the experts on here tell me on what date they would have gone in lockdown, would it have been more severe than the one we currently have and when is the right time to come out of lockdown.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Depends what you mean by elderly and vulnerable. If you suggest we let everyone under 45 go back to work providing they avoid all contract with anyone over 45, then yes OK. But I am not sure you are suggesting that though, are you?

At the moment it's only the over 70's who we are suggesting should not be mixing. Bringing it down to the over 45's would be quite tricky, and unless you did that then any surge in infections in the under 45's (which would be inevitable) although not causing a huge number of deaths in the under 45's, would cause a surge in infections and huge number of deaths in the older demographic.

That said, I am sure it is this *kind* (not specifics) of progressive relaxing that I think we will inevitably have to do.
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45 is just based on the stat released today about deaths you can cut it off any age you want but we are going to have to do something , we can’t lockdown forever and have to come out and start sometime

my view is that when we do the old and vulnerable still need protecting ( as they are now ) but we have to have a managed return it could be under 60.

what is clear is as age goes the older you are the less likely you are to survive it.
 
Eds said:
Can all the experts on here tell me on what date they would have gone in lockdown, would it have been more severe than the one we currently have and when is the right time to come out of lockdown.
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A couple of weeks before we did given we hadn’t prepared properly to support not doing it, yes it would have been and when theres a proper strategy for testing (and the infrastructure to support it) to validate changing the approach.
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
Yes because on that very date the WHO called it a pandemic. And there were Drs and scientists telling the WHO to call it a pandemic prior to that date. That might prick the ears of our scientists and govt!

There were tables and graphs at the time showing all this two week head start on Italy as well. Videos from the likes of Dr Campbell at the very time saying “we appear to be about two weeks behind Italy”. It was in all regions of Italy by 3rd March, not just Lombardy. And even when Lombardy went into lockdown we allowed flights into the country from Lombardy unchecked.

And it was around the world before Italy. So we actually had 8 weeks prior warning, not just the warning from Italy.

Between 5th-10th January WHO started reporting about the virus. 23rd January reported h2h transmission. 10th March the WHO declared it a pandemic.

That’s not us just looking at it as a small outbreak in a small region in Italy and not knowing what might happen.
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They declared it a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30 January 2020.

"Pandemic" is just recognising how many countries are affected.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
So everyone is scared to death of going out to work. Apparently we are the most anxious country in the world about Covid.

so how do we get people back to work.

lets cut the furlough scheme !!
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Actually doing stuff to make people feel safer about leaving home to work is the way forward.

So temperature checks to get into buildings and stations, gallons of hand sanitizer everywhere and the provision of good face masks for travelling on public transport as well as disinfecting trains/trams/tube busy lobbies, lifts and thoroughfares is the way forward.

You know like they do in the far east.

This needs to be provisioned weeks before we open up. So where is the preparation?
 
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kevin horlocks wand said:
45 is just based on the stat released today about deaths you can cut it off any age you want but we are going to have to do something , we can’t lockdown forever and have to come out and start sometime

my view is that when we do the old and vulnerable still need protecting ( as they are now ) but we have to have a managed return it could be under 60.

what is clear is as age goes the older you are the less likely you are to survive it.
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Don't tell the Queen.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
45 is just based on the stat released today about deaths you can cut it off any age you want but we are going to have to do something , we can’t lockdown forever and have to come out and start sometime

my view is that when we do the old and vulnerable still need protecting ( as they are now ) but we have to have a managed return it could be under 60.

what is clear is as age goes the older you are the less likely you are to survive it.
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Fraught with difficulty this though isn't it. Obesity is another very strong indicator. "You can go back to work unless you are over 60 or fat" might be a tricky policy to get through the courts.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Fraught with difficulty this though isn't it. Obesity is another very strong indicator. "You can go back to work unless you are over 60 or fat" might be a tricky policy to get through the courts.
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so what we need to do to end this , is all white, thin and fit females in their 20s and 30s to get to work on Monday and we all watch from our windows.
Gets my vote.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
so what we need to do to end this , is all white, thin and fit females in their 20s and 30s to get to work on Monday and we all watch from our windows.
Gets my vote.
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Now we’re really getting somewhere. Together, Bluemoon’s finest minds can solve anything.
 
hgblue said:
The idea is that the young and healthy who are largely unaffected by this virus continue to work and go to school whilst the elderly and vulnerable are shielded. Once sufficient of the healthy population have had the virus the crisis is over and those who’ve had to be shielded can live a normal life again. Long term this is the best way to protect the elderly and vulnerable + no second wave + no mountain of debt for future generations to pay off + no excess deaths due to mental health issues etc + no excess deaths due to the massive recession that’s coming + millions of people not losing their jobs + an entire nation not scared shitless at the prospect of leaving their house.
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Have you modelled into this equation how much time you would need to reach the point of the shielded being released? We don't know the current level of positive cases in the UK but let's say 5% and you need to reach say 70% (being kind on the stress testing here) . If the definition of vulnerable were to include obese people as well this could also be problematic. I am also assuming this strategy requires the continuation of social distancing/quarantine so as not to overburden hospitals at any one point during the project, we have enough data now to look at the under 65s admissions to date and those with comorbidities. Social distancing and quarantine requirements will continue to have a negative impact on multiple sectors in industry so there will not be a V shaped economic recovery here (important to also remember on the economic recovery is that we need a global recovery not clusters of different nations at various stages using different policies as they are our trading partners ).

I suspect this is the only strategy we realistically have here and until we have any conclusive science to back up the level of durability and effectiveness of our antibodies it has to be agreed that this strategy carries a significant degree of risk. The other key question is what tools and trigger points are we going to use to control the timing of this to reach the required percentage figure for H.I., because as we have already seen it's very difficult to get this right unless the government, the public and the medical community are all on the same page .

I hope a vaccine/anti viral solution will be available before the time lines of the above scenario yield any results for the sake of everyone's well being.
 
meltonblue said:
A couple of weeks before we did given we hadn’t prepared properly to support not doing it, yes it would have been and when theres a proper strategy for testing (and the infrastructure to support it) to validate changing the approach.
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Thanks and your job title is?
 
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