Another new Brexit thread

[mcfc1632]

Answer the question! Oh dont bother we've been here before, I'm wasting my time even responding to you.

I just assumed that, because of the lockdown, you were simply bored and had too much time on your hands....

Why else would you bother?

 

[mcfc1632]

To those Leavers out there and the few Remainers able to apply objectivity when reading articles, I found the recent ruling by the German courts that the ECB & ECJ had over-stepped their remits interesting.

Essentially, Germany has re-established its sovereignty and rejected the supremacy of the ECJ over its own courts - interesting stance to take after signing the Lisbon Treaty - perhaps all members are not equal?

And yet so many Remainers are comfortable with the UK accepting subservience to the ECJ and that the ECJ should have an ongoing supremacy over UK courts??

Oh - and we hear so much about the climate of harmony, cooperation and mutual support across the EU27 - yeah right.....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...-clashes-european-central-bank-revolutionary/

 

[west didsblue]

I think you are spot on. It's a really tricky problem for German car manufacturers.

Less of a problem than you might think thanks to the pandemic. The pandemic will cause every business in Europe bigger problems than Brexit, and many will need to restructure to survive in the next few months. They will take Brexit into account during the restructuring so if No Deal happens they’ll barely notice it. The industry will just bounce back to a lower level than it would have done. At the end of our Brexit transition period it will be in the middle of recovering from its biggest ever slump in production.

 

[Vic]

That’s not the issue, the Covid crisis has plunged most of the EU nations into recession. This means they need to ramp up production and they will be desperate for export markets. The UK is their most important export market. Many, many jobs in member states rely on these exports. The Italian nation has been traumatised by what’s happened to them and are already mightily pissed with the lack of solidarity being shown towards them. Imagine their delight when they are informed that their exports are going to have a tariff applied because the EU want to bully Britain and we told them to do one.

But Italy is part of the EU so part of the bullying....

Italy's exports to the UK are 5% of their exports. And our recession will be worse because of a no-deal Brexit.

Until March the official government advice for UK firms exporting to Italy was

"Benefits for UK businesses exporting to Italy include:
European Union (EU) market, so no tariffs;
similar regulatory framework to UK and modern intellectual property protection practices"

Benefits... hear that, benefits. I presume the guidance was the same to all EU countries and it's now been withdrawn so all UK exporters to the EU are facing disbenefits.

The Prosecco exporters should be ok anyway. In a recession Prosecco will be like a Giffen Good (something people buy more of because they can't afford better wine).

 

[Vic]

And where showroom prices will need to go up by around 30%. 10% for tariffs, 10% for additional logistics and regulatory compliance costs and 10% for exchange rate changes due to the weaker pound. Just my opinion but it would be interesting if someone could explain why I might be wrong.

10% for logistics? It depends whether each car needs an import certificate or each shipload....

 

[Vic]

I think you are spot on. It's a really tricky problem for German car manufacturers.

More of a problem for British car exporters (that's obvious already). A large proportion of German cars go to people with money who will still have money in recession.

 

[Vic]

To those Leavers out there and the few Remainers able to apply objectivity when reading articles, I found the recent ruling by the German courts that the ECB & ECJ had over-stepped their remits interesting.

Essentially, Germany has re-established its sovereignty and rejected the supremacy of the ECJ over its own courts - interesting stance to take after signing the Lisbon Treaty - perhaps all members are not equal?

And yet so many Remainers are comfortable with the UK accepting subservience to the ECJ and that the ECJ should have an ongoing supremacy over UK courts??

Oh - and we hear so much about the climate of harmony, cooperation and mutual support across the EU27 - yeah right.....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...-clashes-european-central-bank-revolutionary/

Hang on... I thought Germany controlled all the European institutions....

So this is Germans controlling Germans?

And I thought you were against judges making political judgements... The main guy who brought the case doesn't like the euro and opposed the post-crash bailout.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Less of a problem than you might think thanks to the pandemic. The pandemic will cause every business in Europe bigger problems than Brexit, and many will need to restructure to survive in the next few months. They will take Brexit into account during the restructuring so if No Deal happens they’ll barely notice it. The industry will just bounce back to a lower level than it would have done. At the end of our Brexit transition period it will be in the middle of recovering from its biggest ever slump in production.

Factor in the slump caused by the pandemic then a No Deal Brexit and NISSAN, MINI and Vauxhall production will move for starters- fewer of each will be needed and their owners will have loads of spare capacity to build in EU based factories.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

More of a problem for British car exporters (that's obvious already). A large proportion of German cars go to people with money who will still have money in recession.

So conveniently all people who buy German cars will be unscathed by recession, but all people who buy British will be plunged into poverty? You truly are desperate to twist things to your glass half empty pro EU stance, when the answer is clearly to not impose tariffs either way post brexit. To do so would be am act of self harm. Free trade regardless of cartel membership.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Factor in the slump caused by the pandemic then a No Deal Brexit and NISSAN, MINI and Vauxhall production will move for starters- fewer of each will be needed and their owners will have loads of spare capacity to build in EU based factories.

Surely they were all closing and moving to Europe anyway? We've been told that on here for four years now.

 

[west didsblue]

So conveniently all people who buy German cars will be unscathed by recession, but all people who buy British will be plunged into poverty? You truly are desperate to twist things to your glass half empty pro EU stance, when the answer is clearly to not impose tariffs either way post brexit. To do so would be am act of self harm. Free trade regardless of cartel membership.

We can only not impose tariffs if there’s a deal, unless we are prepared to open our market to every country in the world tariff free with no guarantee of reciprocation. WTO MFN rules would apply.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

We can only not impose tariffs if there’s a deal, unless we are prepared to open our market to every country in the world tariff free with no guarantee of reciprocation. WTO MFN rules would apply.

It doesn't matter what you call it. Tariffs are a stupid and borderline xenophobic mechanism. To agree not to have them is a piece of piss. You just adopt the current tariff free stance into a whatever you want to call the 'deal' and carry on. Unless someone has an actual desire to create barriers to trade they need not exist. These are not geographical features we are talking about, it is literally made up stuff.

 

[mcfc1632]

It doesn't matter what you call it. Tariffs are a stupid and borderline xenophobic mechanism. To agree not to have them is a piece of piss. You just adopt the current tariff free stance into a whatever you want to call the 'deal' and carry on. Unless someone has an actual desire to create barriers to trade they need not exist. These are not geographical features we are talking about, it is literally made up stuff.

When you put it so simply - it is clear that it is indeed so simple

Some just look for problems and bogeymen

 

[mcfc1632]

Electoral Commission was throughout clearly biased

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52588149

 

[mcfc1632]

Surely they were all closing and moving to Europe anyway? We've been told that on here for four years now.

Of course we could have always stayed in the EU to accelerate the process of transferring UK jobs??

There was the example of EU support to Turkey for Transits, but surely the example that would have satisfied most EUphiles would have been that of the EU grant of £120m to Slovakia and Jaguar LR in a deal to build a new factory in Slovakia in order to, as the EU put it, ‘move jobs from the rich UK to poorer areas of the EU’!

So, the EU actively steals UK jobs, but - strangely - it never does it with German and French car makers. Perhaps they are not seen as rich - or maybe it is another reason.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Of course we could have always stayed in the EU to accelerate the process of transferring UK jobs??

There was the example of EU support to Turkey for Transits, but surely the example that would have satisfied most EUphiles would have been that of the EU grant of £120m to Slovakia and Jaguar LR in a deal to build a new factory in Slovakia in order to, as the EU put it, ‘move jobs from the rich UK to poorer areas of the EU’!

So, the EU actively steals UK jobs, but - strangely - it never does it with German and French car makers. Perhaps they are not seen as rich - or maybe it is another reason.

Indeed. At the same time as outlawing protectionism of industry within EU nations, the BDI in Germany is proposing that German and French industries are designated 'European Champions' to face the threat of China/US competition.

 

[mcfc1632]

Indeed. At the same time as outlawing protectionism of industry within EU nations, the BDI in Germany is proposing that German and French industries are designated 'European Champions' to face the threat of China/US competition.

I find a comparison between their 'entitled' attitude with the G14 as discussed in the UEFA FFP investigation thread. They are a bit like the Scum red bastards and the redscouse - with the EU in the role of UEFA - subservient, but corrupt and determined to survive - and of course punish the upstart - CITY (aka the UK) .

And in a similar manner they attract people who blindly follow and who can see nothing other than an magnificent organisation that reflects beatitude

 

[Vic]

So conveniently all people who buy German cars will be unscathed by recession, but all people who buy British will be plunged into poverty? You truly are desperate to twist things to your glass half empty pro EU stance, when the answer is clearly to not impose tariffs either way post brexit. To do so would be am act of self harm. Free trade regardless of cartel membership.

I could argue the fine points of price elasticity for relative income but you're absolutely right about self-harm but hey, 80 seat majority.

 

[Vic]

Of course we could have always stayed in the EU to accelerate the process of transferring UK jobs??

There was the example of EU support to Turkey for Transits, but surely the example that would have satisfied most EUphiles would have been that of the EU grant of £120m to Slovakia and Jaguar LR in a deal to build a new factory in Slovakia in order to, as the EU put it, ‘move jobs from the rich UK to poorer areas of the EU’!

So, the EU actively steals UK jobs, but - strangely - it never does it with German and French car makers. Perhaps they are not seen as rich - or maybe it is another reason.

[Devastating reply / vanity alert]

Would you like to correct your twisting of the facts? The EU made no grant to Slovakia - they approved that Slovakia could spend its own money under state aid rules so that Land Rover built a factory there rather than in Mexico. Don't blame the EU for global companies' investment decisions. (£120m is coincidentally what the UK gave Nissan to come to Sunderland in the 1980s and they've had a lot more since.)

And the support to Turkey was a loan from the EIB and Ford UK had had £450m loans from the EIB (out of £billions each year of EIB loans to UK business).

Given the falsity of your claim, I suppose I'd better ask too for the source of the quote about moving jobs.

 

[mcfc1632]

Seems that Hogan and Barnier are starting to get the message that there will be a time when the other party will choose not to engage when there is nothing coming back but the 'same old same' insistence on acceptance of their demands.

I really think that we may well be headed to a No FTA outcome - No-Deal has been off the table since the WA.

Shane, but so be it if it has to be so one-sided on the EU's favour.

In times gone by the Remainers on here used to 'emphasise' that the PD would only ever be a set of 'aspirations' that the UK would end up disappointed by as the EU did not have binding commitments to deliver.

Funny how that has turned full circle.....

The pressure and concern sees to be all on one side now - it almost feels that the old fact should be repeated - that we:

"...will not see movement from the EU unless and until...……………."

It afterall was always spot-on