COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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AlgarveBlu said:
Up to date article on the potential effects of survivors medium term health on cv19 and very interesting analysis of monitoring that happened during the subsequent years to the initial 2003 SARS survivors, not very positive follow up data on those who survived unfortunately :-(

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...lth-effects-can-last-long-after-virus-is-gone

Also think this section needs highlighting for future consideration on policy seeing as we are always behind the curve on the science.

There is some hope: Early intervention could play a role in longer-term outcomes of coronavirus patients, said Ivan Hung, a professor of medicine at the University of Hong Kong. Hung said in April that 90% of about 200 discharged patients he oversaw at a clinic at one of the city’s hospitals appear to be making a full recovery a month out.

He attributed the success to Hong Kong’s “early diagnosis and early treatment” of patients, which leaves the virus with less time to wreak havoc on the body.
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Not good. Good job I'm now working to get really fit.
 
Mike N said:
I wonder if Boris Johnson is watching Channel 4 right now? 'The Country that Beat the Virus'. It shows how South Korea have attacked the spread of the virus and reflects on what our country was doing at the same time. Whilst Korea had hard-learned experience from MERS, our response seems like that of a third-world country in comparison.
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UK beuracrates have totally ignored the experience of SARS and MERS in other countries from 2004 onwards. Yes we should have adopted Taiwan's and South Korea's methodologies - but we didn't. Getting beauracracy to change course is like trying to get the Titanic to avoid the iceberg once it was spotted.
 
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paulchapo said:
The whole face mask situation to me is straightforward. If they advise using a tissue to cover your nose and mouth when you sneeze or cough then surely a face mask is more effective than that. Also it restricts droplets being emitted when people speak. The only reason they didn't push it is there was a shortage. Even now I haven't seen any for sale anywhere. That suggest there isn't any as retailers would otherwise have shelves full of them to make a profit.

I was gobsmacked this morning to hear our approach to just allowing thousands of people into the country because the virus was already here so it didn't make a difference. Incredible.
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Plenty for sale on amazon,i think it is more that it gives you a false sense of security as they are not medical grade but joe public thinks they are,covid can get through anything but the proper ones,they are not fitted and people fiddle with them so touching their faces many more times than they usually would,on and off for food and drink,the hospital staff don't do that, then there is washing and drying them properly,also for me it is then in some people's minds that the hand washing and keeping your distance is not so necessary

On balance i think masks were not needed,now boris has said it will help with confidence,that is why the advice has been changed imo
 
BlueAnorak said:
MHRA guidelines require 98% clinical reliability (with statisically zero false positives) and 98% clinical specifically (I.e. it has to detect low levels of antibodies).

The first a test kit from Forth, a company in Chepstow South Wales
https://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/n...sting-kit-98-accuracy-launched-chepstow-firm/

The second a test machine from a French company called Quotient with labs in Scotland . I'm not sure where it will be manufactured - probably France.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-52529294

And the third from Roche diagnosticsc in the UK. Roche has to manufacture some in the UK to get a licence but it will probably be mainly swiss/german manufacture.
https://www.med-technews.com/news/roche-s-covid-19-antibody-test-approved-for-use-in-the-uk/

There is also one at Oxford University that passes MHRA guidelines but is awaiting approval. This will be the one used in PHE antibody testing and will be manufactured in large quantities by the end of May.
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cleavers said:
What's happening with antibody testing, it seems to have gone very quiet on that front.
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See my post. Two of them are for clinical use despite what Karen says
 
karen7 said:
Plenty for sale on amazon,i think it is more that it gives you a false sense of security as they are not medical grade but joe public thinks they are,covid can get through anything but the proper ones,they are not fitted and people fiddle with them so touching their faces many more times than they usually would,on and off for food and drink,the hospital staff don't do that, then there is washing and drying them properly,also for me it is then in some people's minds that the hand washing and keeping your distance is not so necessary

On balance i think masks for not needed,now boris has said it will help with confidence,that is why the advice has been changed imo
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Masks are more about protecting others than yourself (unless in hospitals), personally I'd rather avoid potential areas of transmission, and take (often paranoid) precautions than wear a mask.
 
BlueAnorak said:
See my post. Two of them are for clinical use despite what Karen says
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As already discussed they are not claiming it will confirm immunity,just if you have antibodies,it has not passed our testing yet,no test has yet anywhere and on Mon the WHO said again about immunity has not be proved,let's wait and see if we or anyone else says any of them are good enough shall we
 
Mike N said:
I wonder if Boris Johnson is watching Channel 4 right now? 'The Country that Beat the Virus'. It shows how South Korea have attacked the spread of the virus and reflects on what our country was doing at the same time. Whilst Korea had hard-learned experience from MERS, our response seems like that of a third-world country in comparison.
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I've read a lot on South Korea and their mass testing is revealing a massive number are testing positive but have had no symptoms (upto 30%).

Don't forget here we are barely testing anyone that isn't showing symptoms so we have absolutely no idea how many have actually had it.

It's still my opinion that the number infected was perhaps into the tens of millions before the lockdown and it was the same in Italy and much of Europe which is why we have had so many deaths. The death rate is actually probably extremely low when compared to the likely real total infection count.

South Korea aren't doing anything wildly different, they have just had less infections because in Asia social norms are different so social distancing is easier to impose as is wearing masks and following rules....

Here it took us a month before we realised we had community spread that was well beyond anything seen in South Korea and beyond. Our borders are still open unchecked today!
 
fulabeer said:
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/exclusive-first-coronavirus-antibody-test-185027417.html
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that is promising but from that link the same caution applies,we are not going to get immunity passports any time soon,this is more specific to your antibodies,good first step but til any dr will say in a clinical setting to a patient you are immune and you won't get it again and tested several times over months of years then we are nott here yet


"This is a very positive development, because such a highly specific antibody test is a very reliable marker of past infection. This in turn may indicate some immunity to future infection, although the extent to which the presence of antibodies indicates immunity remains unclear.

Because Covid-19 is a new virus, it is not known for sure whether people who have been infected gain immunity, although an ongoing NHS trial has indicated that an "overwhelming majority" of patients produce antibodies. It is also not known how long immunity lasts.
 
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AlgarveBlu said:
Up to date article on the potential effects of survivors medium term health on cv19 and very interesting analysis of monitoring that happened during the subsequent years to the initial 2003 SARS survivors, not very positive follow up data on those who survived unfortunately :-(

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...lth-effects-can-last-long-after-virus-is-gone

Also think this section needs highlighting for future consideration on policy seeing as we are always behind the curve on the science.

There is some hope: Early intervention could play a role in longer-term outcomes of coronavirus patients, said Ivan Hung, a professor of medicine at the University of Hong Kong. Hung said in April that 90% of about 200 discharged patients he oversaw at a clinic at one of the city’s hospitals appear to be making a full recovery a month out.

He attributed the success to Hong Kong’s “early diagnosis and early treatment” of patients, which leaves the virus with less time to wreak havoc on the body.
Click to expand...

Oh god I did not need to read that right now. Real kick in the teeth.
 
cleavers said:
Seems to be taking a long time, and its not clear if the actual virus test is 100% accurate either.
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I’m assuming you mean the PCR tests here, but the discrepancies between number of tests carried out and number of people tested in the figures released each day implies they are not - although I wonder if that is an issue with the accuracy of the test itself, or difficulties in being able to collect sufficient/adequate samples from those being tested?
 
inbetween said:
I've read a lot on South Korea and their mass testing is revealing a massive number are testing positive but have had no symptoms (upto 30%).

Don't forget here we are barely testing anyone that isn't showing symptoms so we have absolutely no idea how many have actually had it.

It's still my opinion that the number infected was perhaps into the tens of millions before the lockdown and it was the same in Italy and much of Europe which is why we have had so many deaths. The death rate is actually probably extremely low when compared to the likely real total infection count.

South Korea aren't doing anything wildly different, they have just had less infections because in Asia social norms are different so social distancing is easier to impose as is wearing masks and following rules....

Here it took us a month before we realised we had community spread that was well beyond anything seen in South Korea and beyond. Our borders are still open unchecked today!
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The number of deaths are less than 500 in South Korea.

I'm struggling to understand why we didn't follow the country who had so much experience of dealing with a similar situation. The programme doesn't show Boris Johnson in a good light, the usual jokes and the impression that he didn't have a grasp of the seriousness of the epidemic.

Boy, have things moved on since then.
 
Not the best news if true although would be similar to what Vallance said about us the other day.

 
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