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COVID-19 — Coronavirus
- Thread starter urban genie
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Rammy Blue
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I think we’ve used the parameter of expecting a spike after 18-21 days, which we patently haven’t had after VE Day considering that was near on 5 weeks ago now.morning, what is the received wisdom re lag of possible cases when comparing to events that happened in the uk? is it 3 weeks? 5 days?
e.g. VE day, bank holiday, protests etc.
morning, what is the received wisdom re lag of possible cases when comparing to events that happened in the uk? is it 3 weeks? 5 days?
e.g. VE day, bank holiday, protests etc.
About 3 weeks for deaths. Re protests, we should see an upturn of infections inside the next week or so really if it's made a difference.
I think we’ve used the parameter of expecting a spike after 18-21 days, which we patently haven’t had after VE Day considering that was near on 5 weeks ago now.
I think what's most likely is that we won't see notable spikes, but it'll just fall slower than we like. We do seem to be falling at a slower rate than most, and I'd guess slacker attitudes and little moments like this keep it bubbling away.
Rammy Blue
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Personally, I think the key to keeping infections low is that the close contact is outdoors. Hopefully this will be proven once again when we get to 3/4 weeks beyond these BLM protests.I think what's most likely is that we won't see notable spikes, but it'll just fall slower than we like. We do seem to be falling at a slower rate than most, and I'd guess slacker attitudes and little moments like this keep it bubbling away.
We don’t seem to have had spikes since there were masses of people on beaches, as yet.
blueparrot
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Prof Emma Thomson says that although large events can cause "super-spreading" of a virus, the Nike conference in Edinburgh at the end of February was "very definitely not the whole story".
That outbreak resulted in 25 cases of coronavirus, including eight in Scotland.
She said that there were "at least 113 introductions" of Covid-19 into Scotland.
"I suspect many people came back, for example from holidays, skiing and things like that with the infection and that took hold in the community on many occasions," she told Radio Scotland.
Prof Thomson has been able to track changes in the virus's genetic code across different regions of Scotland.
She said this enabled scientists to determine which country the infection had come from.
We don't think it's that likely we would have been seeing this virus in Scotland in December. It's certainly possible that it might have been here earlier in February, and a lot less likely that it was here in January based on what we've seen, although we may not have been looking for it at that time.
Prof Emma ThomsonUniversity of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research
That outbreak resulted in 25 cases of coronavirus, including eight in Scotland.
She said that there were "at least 113 introductions" of Covid-19 into Scotland.
"I suspect many people came back, for example from holidays, skiing and things like that with the infection and that took hold in the community on many occasions," she told Radio Scotland.
Prof Thomson has been able to track changes in the virus's genetic code across different regions of Scotland.
She said this enabled scientists to determine which country the infection had come from.
We don't think it's that likely we would have been seeing this virus in Scotland in December. It's certainly possible that it might have been here earlier in February, and a lot less likely that it was here in January based on what we've seen, although we may not have been looking for it at that time.
Prof Emma ThomsonUniversity of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research
so, with regards to a second wave, it seems unlikely in the summer doesn't it? we've had VE day and a couple of hot weekends blatantly flouted
(not ruling out the autumn climate re-initiating one)
It's the return to work factor tbh. Shopping centres opening and all that. Most people arent back indoors with people away from their households yet. Outdoors seems a lot safer due to how wind breaks the virus up I think. We'll just have to see.
It's the return to work factor tbh. Shopping centres opening and all that. Most people arent back indoors with people away from their households yet. Outdoors seems a lot safer due to how wind breaks the virus up I think. We'll just have to see.
yes that's a good point, greater gatherings of folks is still, in the main, outdoors. I would hazard a guess a lot of people have had others into houses, plus we have uptake of public transport and certain people going back to offices, so perhaps we are going to avoid a second summer wave. Autumn, as i say, could be a another matter
Tim of the Oak
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I find it bizarre that a few posters seem to want a spike in cases from the VE 75 celebrations.
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