Another new Brexit thread

[Saddleworth2]

Within that timescale it's more likely I suppose that problems leaving the union/rejoining the EU are more likely to halt or delay Scottish independence.

I tend to agree. But I don’t think that’s what he said. Just like to ensure I understand correctly.

 

[mcfc1632]

So when you say Brexit will show benefit to the Uk you mean within 3 years. And enough benefit that will convince the Scots to reject independence.

I am simply stating what I consider to be a very obvious fact - even if it is (understandably) irritating for people that wish to see independence for Scotland or the wider population in Scotland that have an (understandable) sense of dissatisfaction/irritation/dislike of the actions and decisions of the UK government.

I am not sure where you are getting that I suggested that there would be the 'persuasive evidence of benefits' from - I did not mention that would be the case at all.

There was a relatively strong prospect of a 'Yes' vote in Scotland in 2014 - any future prospect would have been dependent on another referendum taking place whilst the UK Remained in the EU - or (given that the UK has left) the resultant UK/EU model effectively being a BRINO. A No-Deal outcome - plus a number of years - I suggest a minimum of 3 (the clock would start following the UK leaving the EU genuinely - following transition - not January 2020) - in reality removes the prospect - which would piss me off if I was Scottish as it cements dependence.

I think that is all pretty obvious when objectively assessed - but probably a subject for another thread. I mentioned it on this thread in response to what I consider to be 'hysterical nonsense' that Brexit will inevitably lead to the Scotland choosing to leave the UK.

 

[mcfc1632]

For me one of the few opportunities of Brexit is to reform the ridiculous farming subsidy. It makes sense that we carry this over initially, but I look forward to how this will evolve in the future as our needs change.

I really enjoyed this podcast about it from an environmental perspective.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podca...orm-agricultural/id1451974673?i=1000475879106

This will indeed be interesting - certainly an 'interesting challenge' for the UK departments responsible for agriculture and environment - Scotland have their own department but largely (currently) administer CAP in the same way as the rest of the UK/EU members.

I am not sure of the stance for the rest of the UK, but certainly in Scotland there is increasing ministerial desire to use the departure from the EU to radically and strategically change the approach to 'managing land'. The challenge for them is twofold - introducing such changes when the farming community is so influential and 'enjoy' the status quo and getting their responsible Civil Servants to plan for radical changes following so many years of establishing processes and systems to administer CAP.

 

[Saddleworth2]

I am simply stating what I consider to be a very obvious fact - even if it is (understandably) irritating for people that wish to see independence for Scotland or the wider population in Scotland that have an (understandable) sense of dissatisfaction/irritation/dislike of the actions and decisions of the UK government.

I am not sure where you are getting that I suggested that there would be the 'persuasive evidence of benefits' from - I did not mention that would be the case at all.

There was a relatively strong prospect of a 'Yes' vote in Scotland in 2014 - any future prospect would have been dependent on another referendum taking place whilst the UK Remained in the EU - or (given that the UK has left) the resultant UK/EU model effectively being a BRINO. A No-Deal outcome - plus a number of years - I suggest a minimum of 3 (the clock would start following the UK leaving the EU genuinely - following transition - not January 2020) - in reality removes the prospect - which would piss me off if I was Scottish as it cements dependence.

I think that is all pretty obvious when objectively assessed - but probably a subject for another thread. I mentioned it on this thread in response to what I consider to be 'hysterical nonsense' that Brexit will inevitably lead to the Scotland choosing to leave the UK.

I seem to remember you had some flawed logic for your views that completely ignored the damage wreaked by the Johnson Government on Scotland in the years following Brexit. Why not set it out on the Scottish politics thread so that others can benefit from your objective assessment.

 

[mcfc1632]

I seem to remember you had some flawed logic for your views that completely ignored the damage wreaked by the Johnson Government on Scotland in the years following Brexit. Why not set it out on the Scottish politics thread so that others can benefit from your objective assessment.

Sorry - you are simply wrong there - my logic is/was not flawed at all - the likely outcome seems pretty much irrefutable to me.

The issue might well be that some posters could not get themselves past the feeling of patriotism, resentment towards Brexit, dislike of Tories etc. and look at the implications for Scotland if it were to Leave the UK once the UK has (genuinely) left the EU and put some years in between.

I can understand that - if I was Scottish and/or lived in Scotland I would instinctively wish other than to be subject to the rule of Westminster - no matter whether it was a Labour or Conservative government. But when the implications of independence - which would be very different from 2014 - were set out in a campaign I would regretfully vote No.

The fact that the opinion polls show (eventually) a small percentage in favour of Yes - you would surely have expected that should be a significantly higher at this point No? - and that the percentage might creep upwards with further dissatisfaction with a Johnson government is not a factor that would lead to a Yes outcome.

I might find time to discuss this on the Scottish thread - but Brexit is the only political subject on a football forum that really exercises me and I made the comments here because I am certain that the comments made by another poster expressing a high level of certainty that Brexit would lead to Scotland leaving the UK to be nonsense.

Should there be a genuine departure of the UK from EU controls - still not certain - and a subsequent Indyref2 some years later - I would be very surprised if the Yes vote was above 40% at the end of the campaigning period and the facts were laid out.

 

[Saddleworth2]

Sorry - you are simply wrong there - my logic is/was not flawed at all - the likely outcome seems pretty much irrefutable to me.

The issue might well be that some posters could not get themselves past the feeling of patriotism, resentment towards Brexit, dislike of Tories etc. and look at the implications for Scotland if it were to Leave the UK once the UK has (genuinely) left the EU and put some years in between.

I can understand that - if I was Scottish and/or lived in Scotland I would instinctively wish other than to be subject to the rule of Westminster - no matter whether it was a Labour or Conservative government. But when the implications of independence - which would be very different from 2014 - were set out in a campaign I would regretfully vote No.

The fact that the opinion polls show (eventually) a small percentage in favour of Yes - you would surely have expected that should be a significant higher at this point No? - and that the percentage might creep upwards with further dissatisfaction with a Johnson government is not a factor that would lead to a Yes outcome.

I might find time to discuss this on the Scottish thread - but Brexit is the only political subject on a football forum that really exercises me and I made the comments here because I am certain that the comments made by another poster expressing a high level of certainty that Brexit would lead to Scotland leaving the UK to be nonsense.

Should there be a genuine departure of the UK from EU controls - still not certain - and a subsequent Indyref2 some years later - I would be very surprised if the Yes vote was above 40% at the end of the campaigning period and the facts were laid out.

The percentage is markedly up since we had that discussion and will continue to move upwards as the outcomes of Brexit hit. It’s by no means certain I agree with that but neither should it be dismissed as loftily as you are doing. You sound a little like David Cameron did before the EU referendum.

 

[Vic]

For me one of the few opportunities of Brexit is to reform the ridiculous farming subsidy. It makes sense that we carry this over initially, but I look forward to how this will evolve in the future as our needs change.

I really enjoyed this podcast about it from an environmental perspective.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podca...orm-agricultural/id1451974673?i=1000475879106

He should be more concerned that the government is offering no commitments to maintaining food and animal welfare standards for imports under new trade deals.

 

[Vic]

This will indeed be interesting - certainly an 'interesting challenge' for the UK departments responsible for agriculture and environment - Scotland have their own department but largely (currently) administer CAP in the same way as the rest of the UK/EU members.

I am not sure of the stance for the rest of the UK, but certainly in Scotland there is increasing ministerial desire to use the departure from the EU to radically and strategically change the approach to 'managing land'. The challenge for them is twofold - introducing such changes when the farming community is so influential and 'enjoy' the status quo and getting their responsible Civil Servants to plan for radical changes following so many years of establishing processes and systems to administer CAP.

I thought the big row was over whether the devolved administrations could have different food standards to England. Apparently the English government thinks the UK's having an internal market and common standards is good, which is a bit odd when they think the EU internal market is so bad.

 

[mcfc1632]

The percentage is markedly up since we had that discussion and will continue to move upwards as the outcomes of Brexit hit. It’s by no means certain I agree with that but neither should it be dismissed as loftily as you are doing. You sound a little like David Cameron did before the EU referendum.

Sorry - I don't mean to sound that way when replying to you

I was being dismissive of the nonsense that I was originally replying to - but then you answered instead of the person that I was replying to.

There is indeed the issue of 'feeling/emotion/anger/desire'' and I would be certain that the polls could/would see an increasing majority for Yes in the coming months/year or so. That seems to be where you are on this and I can fully accept that it is a sound view to take.


But all that really matters is what happens in an Indy ref2 vote and I am very confident that lead would rapidly dissipate once the reality of what the consequences would be were made clear. I am sorry it is just fact - OK - not fact in the purist sense - but so obvious a conclusion that it is as good as a fact when you subject the consequences to some objective analysis - something that I can do as I do not have a 'position' either way.

I remember listing some of the implications last Autumn - events since only make the position clearer.

I am not banging some Unionist drum - I am pretty indifferent - for me if Scotland voted for independence - well good for them. Just not going to happen though if there has been a clean break by the UK from the EU and my only real interest was to address the nonsense that was being stated by another poster.

I am pretty sure that the SNP know that they needed to get a 2nd vote before the UK left the EU or need(ed) a BRINO outcome for their own independence vote to win through.

 

[Saddleworth2]

Sorry - I don't mean to sound that way when replying to you

I was being dismissive of the nonsense that I was originally replying to - but then you answered instead of the person that I was replying to.

There is indeed the issue of 'feeling/emotion/anger/desire'' and I would be certain that the polls could/would see an increasing majority for Yes in the coming months/year or so. That seems to be where you are on this and I can fully accept that it is a sound view to take.


But all that really matters is what happens in an Indy ref2 vote and I am very confident that lead would rapidly dissipate once the reality of what the consequences would be were made clear. I am sorry it is just fact - OK - not fact in the purist sense - but so obvious a conclusion that it is as good as a fact when you subject the consequences to some objective analysis - something that I can do as I do not have a 'position' either way.

I remember listing some of the implications last Autumn - events since only make the position clearer.

I am not banging some Unionist drum - I am pretty indifferent - for me if Scotland voted for independence - well good for them. Just not going to happen though if there has been a clean break by the UK from the EU and my only real interest was to address the nonsense that was being stated by another poster.

I am pretty sure that the SNP know that they needed to get a 2nd vote before the UK left the EU or need(ed) a BRINO outcome for their own independence vote to win through.

There was a fair stab at consequences in the SGC report. Whilst it left lots of areas for further discussion and debate I thought it was a good input to the debate. All I can reflect is the sentiment I hear, and the direction of travel is certainly towards independence.

 

[Vic]

If the English think British sovereignty is worth all the damage of Brexit, why wouldn't Scots think their sovereignty is worth a bit of damage?

 

[Metal Biker]

As soon as the Scottish Referendum result came in I knew that the UK union was finished. 45% of its highest ever turnout for a political decision means that the issue was not going away any time soon and that support for the union was on a knife edge, with only a few more heads needing to be turned. Had it been 75%+ i'd have been more assured and done more to care about preserving the UK union, but it's ovbious, for whatever reasons, the people of Scotland do not consider the rest of the UK, particularly England, as a suitable partner anymore.

With or without brexit the nationalists would have continued to chip away at the perceived importance of the UK union and press a case for EU membership as an independent nation. The case for Scottish independence has been made, many Scots have embraced it, and a separation has been on the cards, regardless of the EU referendum result. It's just sped up the process.

So unless Scotland splits in two, with Southern Scotland (the majority of pro-UK support) along the English border, and Northern Scotland becoming independent, it's only going to be a matter of time.

With the Scots rejecting the two main parties, Conservative and Labour, and the sheer size and number of English constituencies far outnumbering anything the SNP could ever hope to achieve, there really is no alternative. The UK union was finished the moment the Scottish referendum was authorised and the result far from conclusive. Unless England gets it's own devolved Parliament, reducing Westminster's dominance, separation becomes a question of when, not if.

 

[hgblue]

As soon as the Scottish Referendum result came in I knew that the UK union was finished. 45% of its highest ever turnout for a political decision means that the issue was not going away any time soon and that supprot for the union was on a knife edge, with only a few more heads needing to be turned. With or without brexit the nationalists would have continued to chip away at the perceived importance of the UK union and press a case for EU membership as an independent nation.

The case for Scottish independence has been made, many Scots have embraced it, and a separation has been on the cards, with or without brexit. It's just sped up the process. So unless Scotland splits in two, with Southern Scotland (the majority of pro-UK support) along the English border, and Northern Scotland becoming independent, it's only going to be a matter of time.

With the Scots rejecting the two main parties, Conservative and Labour, and the sheer size and number of English constituencies far outnumbering anything the SNP could ever hope to achieve, there really is no alternative. The UK union was finished the moment the Scottish referendum was authorised and the result far from conclusive. Unless England gets it's own devolved Parliament, separation becomes a question of when, not if.

Totally agree with this. I was really pleased when the Scottish referendum result came through, but I’ve come round to the idea that separation is probably for the best. It’s clear that the decision to leave the EU has meant a material change in circumstances since the last vote, so another mandate for the union is essential. I don’t believe in keeping people in a union against their will and any union must have popular support to be sustainable.

 

[west didsblue]

As soon as the Scottish Referendum result came in I knew that the UK union was finished. 45% of its highest ever turnout for a political decision means that the issue was not going away any time soon and that support for the union was on a knife edge, with only a few more heads needing to be turned. Had it been 75%+ i'd have been more assured and done more to care about preserving the UK union, but it's ovbious, for whatever reasons, the people of Scotland do not consider the rest of the UK, particularly England, as a suitable partner anymore.

With or without brexit the nationalists would have continued to chip away at the perceived importance of the UK union and press a case for EU membership as an independent nation. The case for Scottish independence has been made, many Scots have embraced it, and a separation has been on the cards, regardless of the EU referendum result. It's just sped up the process.

So unless Scotland splits in two, with Southern Scotland (the majority of pro-UK support) along the English border, and Northern Scotland becoming independent, it's only going to be a matter of time.

With the Scots rejecting the two main parties, Conservative and Labour, and the sheer size and number of English constituencies far outnumbering anything the SNP could ever hope to achieve, there really is no alternative. The UK union was finished the moment the Scottish referendum was authorised and the result far from conclusive. Unless England gets it's own devolved Parliament, reducing Westminster's dominance, separation becomes a question of when, not if.

Totally agree with this. I was really pleased when the Scottish referendum result came through, but I’ve come round to the idea that separation is probably for the best. It’s clear that the decision to leave the EU has meant a material change in circumstances since the last vote, so another mandate for the union is essential. I don’t believe in keeping people in a union against their will and any union must have popular support to be sustainable.

You two seem to be going a bit off message here.

Brexit was supposed to be good for the UK union.

I’m sure I read it on here from one of Bluemoon’s leading Brexit proponents that there’s no way Scotland will leave the UK.

 

[Metal Biker]

You two seem to be going a bit off message here.

Brexit was supposed to be good for the UK union.

I’m sure I read it on here from one of Bluemoon’s leading Brexit proponents that there’s no way Scotland will leave the UK.

Lay your complaints to those who made those specific claims then. Your arguments are with them, not me. The Scottish referendum undermined the integrity of the UK union well before brexit. Kind of the point of the post.

Mine was that being a member of an authoritarian bloc, which has aims to federalism, was not in our best interests and I no longer wanted the country I live in to be a part of it or to have UK taxpayers continue to fund it.

 

[mcfc1632]

There was a fair stab at consequences in the SGC report. Whilst it left lots of areas for further discussion and debate I thought it was a good input to the debate. All I can reflect is the sentiment I hear, and the direction of travel is certainly towards independence.

Oh - I agree and as I mentioned earlier - I would expect the 'feelings' to continue to drive the polls upwards for Yes - but 2 factors indicate that there is very little chance of a Yes outcome:

1/ When the implications of Leaving (and remember - I am indifferent so have no axe to grind) - are laid out the impact will quickly wash away any level of wavering.

Simply take any of the arguments Remainers put forwards here and then apply them to Scotland Leaving the UK, e.g.

• primary export market
• secondary export markets dependency on servicing through English infrastructure
• the border issues
• Integration - the extent of integration of the UK into the EU is superficial when compared to Scotland with the UK. Scotland has massive dependencies on the use of UK systems for even basic services - I know, I have been providing support to SG on the Social Security Programme and recently I have been asked to help with the transition from CAP to - whatever will follow etc.
• etc. etc.

There are many more issues of far greater impact proportionately than the UK leaving the EU. And of course then there would be negotiation of the withdrawal agreement which would be very interesting - the UK will have learned a few handling lessons in recent years

2/ The current/future level of support for independence is wholly insufficient and not credibly going to increase to anywhere need that required to counter the deluge of issues like those listed.

I see it as an unhappy outcome for a lot of Scottish citizens - they will have a desire to be independent, but will vote to stay in the UK - Leaving a 'bad taste' and a deal of resentment - but that is what will happen

 

[BobKowalski]

Interesting point on UK ‘sovereignty’ in that it is no longer protected within the EU so we are more open to leverage from other nations. An example of this is in trade talks with Australia who are pissed at the UK over pensions for UK pension holders in Australia.

This would never have been an issue in Australia/EU discussions but now we are negotiating outside of the EU, pension reform is one of Australia’s demands. This will be replicated on food standards/animal welfare/environment etc as we get tangled up in talks with various nations all with different and sometimes competing demands.

And that is before we even get into the contentious issue of devolved nation rights and demands within our own Union and English attempts to override the devolved nations.

 

[mcfc1632]

As soon as the Scottish Referendum result came in I knew that the UK union was finished. 45% of its highest ever turnout for a political decision means that the issue was not going away any time soon and that support for the union was on a knife edge, with only a few more heads needing to be turned. Had it been 75%+ i'd have been more assured and done more to care about preserving the UK union, but it's ovbious, for whatever reasons, the people of Scotland do not consider the rest of the UK, particularly England, as a suitable partner anymore.

With or without brexit the nationalists would have continued to chip away at the perceived importance of the UK union and press a case for EU membership as an independent nation. The case for Scottish independence has been made, many Scots have embraced it, and a separation has been on the cards, regardless of the EU referendum result. It's just sped up the process.

So unless Scotland splits in two, with Southern Scotland (the majority of pro-UK support) along the English border, and Northern Scotland becoming independent, it's only going to be a matter of time.

With the Scots rejecting the two main parties, Conservative and Labour, and the sheer size and number of English constituencies far outnumbering anything the SNP could ever hope to achieve, there really is no alternative. The UK union was finished the moment the Scottish referendum was authorised and the result far from conclusive. Unless England gets it's own devolved Parliament, reducing Westminster's dominance, separation becomes a question of when, not if.

Totally agree with this. I was really pleased when the Scottish referendum result came through, but I’ve come round to the idea that separation is probably for the best. It’s clear that the decision to leave the EU has meant a material change in circumstances since the last vote, so another mandate for the union is essential. I don’t believe in keeping people in a union against their will and any union must have popular support to be sustainable.

You may be right of course - but I really do not think that you are

And here is the real perversity.......

You would indeed both be right - that a Yes vote in Scotland would have been a question of when - not if - had it not been for a key event...........

BREXIT

Now - I can understand that conventional wisdom could/would argue that the English and Tory drive to Brexit will further alienate the Scots and increase support for a Yes vote - but that is in fact only the case at the 'passion/emotions' levels.

For Independence to work it needed to happen whilst the UK was a member of the EU and accordingly all the issues of border controls / exports / imports etc could have been amicably resolved under EU direction with recourse to the ECJ - there would have been a jointly managed transition put in place

That is no longer the case - it would be a nightmare for Scotland

Independence will be wanted - but rejected.

I am afraid that we are in for a long-term unhappy marriage with neither party satisfied in the loveless relationship.

There will be much resentment of Scots towards the English control and I suspect that a UK wide vote would see Scotland Leave the UK on the back of English attitudes - which shows how likely the majority of English feel.

It is what it is - somewhat sadly. But time for pre-match beers.

 

[hgblue]

You may be right of course - but I really do not think that you are

And here is the real perversity.......

You would indeed both be right - that a Yes vote in Scotland would have been a question of when - not if - had it not been for a key event...........

BREXIT

Now - I can understand that conventional wisdom could/would argue that the English and Tory drive to Brexit will further alienate the Scots and increase support for a Yes vote - but that is in fact only the case at the 'passion/emotions' levels.

For Independence to work it needed to happen whilst the UK was a member of the EU and accordingly all the issues of border controls / exports / imports etc could have been amicably resolved under EU direction with recourse to the ECJ - there would have been a jointly managed transition put in place

That is no longer the case - it would be a nightmare for Scotland

Independence will be wanted - but rejected.

I am afraid that we are in for a long-term unhappy marriage with neither party satisfied in the loveless relationship.

There will be much resentment of Scots towards the English control and I suspect that a UK wide vote would see Scotland Leave the UK on the back of English attitudes - which shows how likely the majority of English feel.

It is what it is - somewhat sadly. But time for pre-match beers.

Your argument has echoes of the Remain argument in the EU referendum, vote to stay in a union you no longer support because a vote to leave will hurt you financially. Scots definitely care about the economy, but this vote when it comes will be an emotional one imo. I can certainly see the logic of the Scots going their own way rather than being a reluctant, resentful partner in a union they no longer support for purely financial reasons. This would probably be a good thing because if they keep electing the likes of Sturgeon and Blackford, whilst we’re electing the likes of Boris and Gove, we’re going to end up hating each other.

 

[BobKowalski]

Your argument has echoes of the Remain argument in the EU referendum, vote to stay in a union you no longer support because a vote to leave will hurt you financially. Scots definitely care about the economy, but this vote when it comes will be an emotional one imo. I can certainly see the logic of the Scots going their own way rather than being a reluctant, resentful partner in a union they no longer support for purely financial reasons. This would probably be a good thing because if they keep electing the likes of Sturgeon and Blackford, whilst we’re electing the likes of Boris and Gove, we’re going to end up hating each other.

The direction of travel seems to be one way. There is no appetite for working together either side of the border, and if the NI protocols work then it will establish a potential mechanism to straddle two customs unions with trade disruptions kept to a minimum, assuming Scotland leaves and enters the EU or does a Norway. An attitude of resentment north of the border and at best indifference south of the border will not keep us together, which for me will be a deep regret.

NI leaving dissolves the UK, Scotland leaving dissolves Great Britain. A sad day personally if that happens.