Hillary Clinton was a known, and relatively disliked, candidate. Trump was a well-known celebrity and threatened exactly what he has done...shake up DC...just not in the way people are seeing!
The big differences in 2016 that are NOT in place this time are:
1) A woman at the top of the ticket
2) A hated woman at the top of the ticket
3) Trump is most definitely not a “Fuck it! Let’s give him a chance! How bad could it be?!” candidate in 2020.
4) Jill Stein. Don’t underestimate her siphoning off of the female vote and the “alternative to two bad choices” votes. She hurt Clinton.
Regardless, in an effort to keeping it real, here’s the REALITY of the 2016 election results:
Trump did NOT win big. He scraped a victory in a few KEY states with reasonably large numbers of electoral votes, which greatly exaggerates the perception of victory...which, of course, he further exaggerates!
In a “democratic national vote, Trump lost by about 3 MILLION votes. The problem is that many of those “extra 3M votes” occurred in large states where she simply won in such large numbers it didn’t get a similar bump in electoral votes.
So, on an Electoral College basis, look at the Delegate Counts and how many votes actually tipped the scales.
Official 2016 Result
Trump 304 vs Clinton 227
That looks big, but it came down to THREE STATES: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
MI: 16 Delegates, difference in the vote: 10,704; 0.22%
PA: 20 Delegates, difference in the vote: 44,292; 0.72%
WI: 10 Delegates, difference in the vote: 22,748; 0.76%
Total difference in Delegates: 46
Total difference in the votes: 77,744
Total NATIONAL votes cast: 136,669,237
Total NATIONAL % Diff: 0.056%
Simply switch HALF+1 of those votes from Trump to Clinton, and you see that changing the following number of votes in each state changes the “winner take all” EC votes from Trump to Clinton:
MI: 5,352 votes
PA: 22,147 votes
WI: 11,375 votes
===============
Ttl: 38,874 votes
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Therefore, 38,874 KEY VOTES in three key states changed the entire trajectory of the world.
Switching those 38,874 votes from Trump to Clinton would have changed the results from...
TRUMP 304 - CLINTON 227
To...
TRUMP 258 - CLINTON 273.
With 270 Delegates being the magic number needed to be President!
So, are there about 40,000 people in those 3 states that have seen enough of Trump that they will vote for Biden?
BYEDON/HARRIS 2020