Agree that is his plan however. Mail in voting is likely to be closer aligned to the two parties than people think. The GOP relies on older voters - they will want to mail in the votes. This plan also only works if he wins the counts of in person voting, he may not.
Its also pretty irrelevant what he says after the election as it is all done state by state, each state has to count the votes and agree they have a winner. If they fail to do that then it ends up in court and the court will move fast, it would go to the supreme court before the key date of 14th December. The election winner is confirmed on that date and Congress count the votes in from the collage. If a State fails to send in a result then congress has license to push on. So it is highly possible that we end up with Congress declaring Biden the winner in December with Trump still contesting the result. But its too late then for him, it would all be over in the new year.
Yes, we have talked about this before and I have continually said that those that put their faith in the rule of law (i.e. what you have described and what I have always agreed is what *should* happen) are grossly underestimating the level of subversion the Trump camp and the Republicans are willing to go.
I do not contest that mail-in voting has been the domain of older voters in past elections. But most advance analysis of likely mail-in and provisional ballot voters for this election have it going decidedly toward Biden, and there have been many write-ups from election observers and analysts, including the one I was responding to, that predict an initial vote balance favouring Trump around Election Day, with a drastic shift as mail-in and provisional ballots are counted later. I am only going on the balance of analysis thus far, not my own opinion.
It’s also important to remember that the Trump camp have been taking disruptive and destructive action to ensure mail-in ballots are delayed in arriving in state collection and processing facilities, even if mailed early. Hopefully many people will be aware of that and drop off their ballots in person at designated drop off stations ahead of Election Day, but many will not. And some states do not allow a substantial advance period for drop off and/or are releasing their mail-in ballots much later than others (in some cases there seems to be intentional unusual delays in Republican states). That’s not even factoring in possible issues with vote counting in districts that have close ties to the Trump camp.
And the legal challenges I was referring to are actually Republican lead challenges at the state level, which we saw during the Bush-Gore debacle, but by all reports this cycle are meant to be ready to contest multiple state vote tallies (and individual county counts) nearly as soon as the election is over. That’s in addition to the “election monitoring” that Republicans have already announced they will be doing, with many states allowing nearly immediate ballot challenges at polling stations. And I do not think these challenges are going to move through the courts quite as fast as you think, especially given the conditions of some of the states court systems right now (both due to underlying state authorities but also because of the pandemic).
I’ve also said many times that there is no reason to believe that, in the event election certification gets to Congress, that the composition that exists prior to the January 3 transition would certify Biden as the winner. And there are some constitutional scholars that say there are actual issues with that path (which has never occurred before), anyway.
I also do not agree that what he says/does after the election is irrelevant. It absolutely is relevant, not only for the reasons I have laid out above, but because he is and will continue to deputise his followers to action to stop his ouster — laws be damned. And each state will be influenced by Republican legal response and, very likely, DOJ intervention, as Barr has already been laying the groundwork to evoke federal voting security laws to challenge unfavourable trends.
Focusing simply on what ought to occur is missing what he and his camp have been doing this entire time: subverting law, norms, and rational expectations of behaviour.
And our discussion could all be moot if he simply decides not to recognise the outcome of the election *if* he loses and the DOJ and Republican legal response work to declare the election fraudulent. The Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs has already said the military will play no part in enforcing the outcome of the election, even if it is contested, and there is no current mechanism for removal of the President in the event he refuses to allow for the peaceful transfer of the powers of the office. The Senate President Pro Tempore — who would likely be a Democrat after the Senate transition in January, if it comes to that — can attempt to enforce the transfer, but as that has never happened, there are varying scenarios of how (or if) Trump could be legally removed. Chuck Grassley will be the Pro Temp before elected transition and it very unlikely he would try to force Trump out.
It’s just not as simple as looking at what should happen, unfortunately. It’s not entirely up to the states independent from RNC, DNC, and federal interventions.
In fact, the primary reason Bush Jr won was because of Republican legal interventions that were partly coordinated by Cheney and a few then federal officials on behalf of the Bush campaign. Being the sitting president (incumbent) provides massive advantages, even in a seemingly state-driven election system.
And we haven’t even touched open McConnell and co’s methodical strategy to stack the lower courts with judges that will likely lean toward Republican expectations for decisions during the legion of ballot challenges.
November and beyond is very likely going to be chaos, mate.
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