COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Cassandra]

Nicola Sturgeon also announced a major change to the way hospital data is recorded from today. Some of you may not like it as it will significantly reduce numbers.

It is based around 28 days as maximum for a patient tested as positive to still be regarded as a Covid patient. Akin to the change England made recently.

On the old method there are 262 in hospital today (-2) on yesterday.

However, under the new method - which from now will be the only one cited daily by the data - there are just 48 Covid patients!

Exactly what the other 214 are seems a pertinent question.

The change also impacts icu ventilator patients (though Nicola Sturgeon says to a lesser extent).

So there are 7 on icu ventilators under the old method (same as yesterday) but that is now just 6 as the other one has been in hospital longer than 28 days so is now discounted as a Covid case.

I THINK that was what she was saying.

I imagine some of you will find this shall we say a little 'manipulative'. But she thinks it is more accurate.

You might have thought that even politicians, whose primary skill is avoiding giving answers, would be able to produce criteria for recording deaths and ICU/ventilator patients in a realistic way. I guess that the more reliable measures of the death rate are the ONS data for directly Covid related deaths and the excess deaths for the direct and indirectly related casualties.
Having said that, Nicola Sturgeon manages to at least look as though she cares, and Jason Leitch (Clinical Director) is to me the most straightforward sounding guy of all the UK politicians and advisors.

 

[Mr Partridge]

You didn’t need to spell it out but if people had symptoms and weren’t told they were negative, then presumably they keep isolating as if they had the virus? Without getting negatives there’s no point actually having any testing at all. Just tell everyone with any symptoms to stay at home for a fortnight and it’ll be fine. Of course, if you then pick up a sore throat a week later you’re back at home for a fortnight. Back to work for a week and one of the kids has a runny nose. Two weeks off again. Presumably all the family will be doing the same? That’s why there should be no priority just an accurate, fast turn around of results for everybody.

He was told to stay at home for 7 days so he did, when he enquired about the test result they told him if he had isolated for 7 days and was no longer showing symptoms he was free to go out. He was told to assume the test was negative because if it had been positive he would have received his results quickly. Make of that what you will but I can only say what he told me.

 

[Healdplace]

Really bad news again from hospital data. The media should be reporting this.

Another 13 new ventilator patients in England today taking the number to 101.

That is 39 added in 5 days. And it has doubled from 51 since 5 September.

Those who think the numbers are small and not translating into deaths yet - only the word yet matters in that sentence.

Because if ventilator patients keep rising this fast some of them are obviously going to sadly die.

 

[Healdplace]

In the NW ventilator patients have gone from 13 last Thursday to 25 today. It is more than two months since that many have been ventilated in the NW.

It is very clear now that death numbers are going to go up soon. Hopefully nothing like exponentially or to huge levels but significant and imo these hospital figures should be the one thing the media are reporting. But as yet don't seem to be.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Really bad news again from hospital data. The media should be reporting this.

Another 13 new ventilator patients in England today taking the number to 101.

That is 39 added in 5 days. And it has doubled from 51 since 5 September.

Those who think the numbers are small and not translating into deaths yet - only the word yet matters in that sentence.

Because if ventilator patients keep rising this fast some of them are obviously going to sadly die.

Exactly the problem - and ventilator need is laid down several days before they are actually needed.

Those figures are very ominous.

 

[Marvin]

GM scoreboard:

Bolton 81 - up from 63. 1211 in month (though not quite new GM record). 587 past week (new GM record). 144 over 2 days (was 159 - so still just edging down here - glimmer of hope). Pop score up 29 to 1177 and may astonishingly enter the rare 1200 club tomorrow at UK record pace.

Bury 30 - up from 26 to one of its highest ever numbers. The last five days have been some of the worst during the pandemic for cases here. Near double the preceding five or six days and triple the ones before that. Seems to have like Wigan caught the overspill from Bolton. 392 in month (new record). 170 past week. 56 over 2 days (was 53). Pop score up 15 to 985 and will be the fifth GM borough into the unwanted 1000 club tomorrow if it stays this high.

Manchester 65 - down a little but still running high. 1262 in month - pips Bolton for the monthly record by running high for longer than Bolton. But Bolton will likely snatch it back sadly as it is currently getting higher numbers). 431 past week. 135 over 2 days (was 147). Pop score up 12 to 926.

Oldham 45 - down just from 46 but having a bad week. 712 in month. 284 past week. 91 over 2 days (was 101). Pop score up 19 to 1422. Level with Blackburn as second worst behind Leicester.

Rochdale 33 - up from 31. Also having a rough few days. 519 in month. 204 past week. 64 over 2 days (was 66). Pop score up 15 to 1173.

Salford 39 - back up from 27 to second worst here yet. 573 in month. 236 past week (new record). Bad week here. 66 over 2 days (was 59). Pop score up 15 to 865. GM Leader on this measure 4 weeks ago is now 112 points off the lead here in 4th place showing how bad the past 2/3 weeks have been for Salford.

Stockport 19 - down from 28 to first sub 20 score in a few days but needless to say still high for here. But = apart from the place below - biggest step in right direction today in GM at least. 287 in month increasing daily at these numbers but still holding on to top spot in GM. 144 past week - not looking like regaining this recently surrendered GM title soon. 47 over 2 days (was 52), Pop score up 6 to 753. Did not lose ground here on best in GM.

Tameside 25 - down from 49 - lowest in 6 days and promising drop. 551 in month. 242 past week. 74 over 2 days (was 89). Pop score up 11 to 1037.

Trafford 14 - down from 16 and lowest in GM again as for days now. 307 in month. Closing gap on Stockport for best here. 99 past week. Just managed to stay sub 100 and still well clear as best in GM on this measure. 30 over 2 days (was 32). Pop score up 6 to 793. Might make the 800 club tomorrow - otherwise it will surely do on Thursday.

Wigan 23 - down from 30 but not been out of the 20 - 30 range in 5 days. 383 in month. 157 past week. Close race here with Stockport but both well behind Trafford for top spot here. 53 over 2 days (was 53). Pio score up 7 to 787. Also likely to enter 800 club over next few days.

Thanks very much for your time and effort.

 

[kaz7]

Ha, I had that with my 2nd shot of Flu. The son found me on the kitchen floor trying to breathe and when the ambulance came they shaved my chest and then wasted 5 minutes trying to get them to stick, I was absolutely pouring with sweat. They gave up in the end. That was on Xmas day morning and the consultant must have been on all night, she claimed I must have had a panic attack, cheeky woman.

They've put me on 500mg Clarithromycin twice a day which is more bacteria aimed than a virus. Bloody horse pills they are and I hate swallowing pills.

You have had an insight into menopausal sweats lol

 

[Healdplace]

Patients in NW hospitals also up again today to 269. Seven days ago it was 166. Seven days before that 117.

Patients in the MIdlands up from 95 to 190 in the last 7 days. (And ventilator beds there from 13 to 25 in same seven days).

Patients in Yorkshire up from 83 to 152 in the same seven days. Though ventilators only up a couple to 18.

Patients in London up from 94 to 121 in the same seven days. And ventilated patients from 15 to 26 - incliuding 5 up in London since yesterday.

Why is this not the lead story on the news? It is a huge shift in the data in the past few days.

 

[kaz7]

There was a Dr on sky today saying getting tests are difficult but the Heathrow hub was empty , try and contact them direct or just go if local, worth a go

 

[Healdplace]

So UK hospital numbers are (using the old Scottish numbers not the 48 as the UK website still does) -

Patients: England 866 Scotland 262 Wales 45 and N Ireland 23 = total of 1196. That is climbing near double where we were two or three weeks ago after months of falls and going below 1000 earlier in the Summer - staying there for weeks down into the early 700s.

Ventilators England 101, Wales 10, Scotland 7 (or 6 new data). N Ireland 2 = 120. That is the highest in the UK since 21 July after three months of falls.