COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Scottyboi]

Not sure closing pubs earlier will have much effect. People will just go out earlier and be pissed up earlier.

It's a cop out really it's schools being open that will make this spread faster

 

[Healdplace]

Sadly the English hospital deaths now leave little room for argument that deaths are heading upwards and seemingly at a faster rate.

18 deaths - it was just 8 last Thursday. This is the biggest hospital rise in some time and fits all those extra ventilator patients that are taking us in this direction.

5 of the 18 are from the NW (versus 2 last Thursday) and all the cases are within the past 4 days including 16 of them in the last 72 hours.

Only 3 of the 18 deaths are NOT in the NW, Yorkshire or the Midlands. London had none as it has quite often lately.

This is clearly now getting real and I think arguments about further restrictions/lockdowns will soon be academic if this pattern that has been brewing in the data on here for a week or two now continues to escalate.

Not sure why the media are yet to wake up to the worrying rise in patients AND ventilator patients as it has been clear day to day for at least a week.

But these deaths will soon start to be noticed if this goes on sadly.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Not sure closing pubs earlier will have much effect. People will just go out earlier and be pissed up earlier.

agree, i can't see much logic in this

 

[cleavers]

agree, i can't see much logic in this

The only logic is that it keeps people spending in them, keeping people at work.

 

[BlueHammer85]

The only logic is that it keeps people spending in them, keeping people at work.

which i fully support, but what difference will closing at 10pm make ?

 

[Healdplace]

The England hospital data in detail:

16 Sep adds 6 = 6 after one day. The last time 6 deaths were recorded in hospital the day before (as in literally they were on yesterday not counted from a few days ago) was 9 July. So this number will almost certainly escalate over the next few days.

You will notice that these ''last time we had this'' kind of reference for dates and numbers I post keep going further and further back in time as we head up a steepening curve to match where we were at a point back when numbers had been falling slowly for months.

15 Sep adds 5 = 8 after two days. This is now the second 8 two day total this week. The last before then was on 3 August. The last higher was 23 July.

14 Sep adds 5 = 9 after three days.

13 Sep adds 0 = 11 after four days. So some good news here.

12 Sep adds 2 = a five day total of 7. But this is the end of the single figure five day run at just 4 days as tomorrow's fifth day date already has 11. And looking at the numbers coming up behind it for 2 and 3 days we might not see many single figure numbers again in the near future.

Yes, the numbers so far are not huge and I really hope they never get close to being. But this IS going upward now. There is little doubt. The rising cases do appear to have started to translate into rising deaths.

And these deaths are unlikely to be the result of the real big rise in case numbers over the past week or so given the 2/3 week lag effect. That is a sobering thought.

 

[MeatnSpudsMCFC]

Not sure closing pubs earlier will have much effect. People will just go out earlier and be pissed up earlier.

The health minister stated that rise in infections across North-East is likely linked to places like pubs, where people are less likely to adhere to social distancing measures and households meet up.

 

[grunge]

which i fully support, but what difference will closing at 10pm make ?

Less time in side with lower social distancing?

 

[cleavers]

which i fully support, but what difference will closing at 10pm make ?

None, more than likely they'll go back to peoples houses and drink more, so it's good for off sales too ;-)

If it's bad enough that people can't mix households, then sorry but pubs should be closed, as you can't help but mix households there. I'd even suggest restaurants should be only takeaway too, but we have to have an economy of some sort, and as you can still sit in an office, supposedly covid safe, but who's checked ?

Nobody has checked mine, and it's certainly not covid safe, it's exactly as it was in March, apart from ony 1 person is allowed in the small kitchen area at once, luckily I've only been in it 4 times so far, and it's nearly a month before I have to do so again.

 

[Bazzmand Show]

its like living in North Korea and people are fed up.

Its not even in the same ball park, don't make ridiculous statements like this.

You are currently being asked to wear a mask and some nightclubs are closed, that's about it ffs.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Less time in side with lower social distancing?

but everyone would have been mixing and mingling for the previous 2-3 hours.

 

[Healdplace]

I am clinging to some hope that a factor here is that we have got better at recording deaths quickly and this is why numbers in the first two or three days seem to stack higher than they were when they came in more in dribs and drabs over a longer time. So fewer now may get added on after two or three days.

That is still a possible factor in this data. And it may be a week or two before we can tell for sure how much of one.


But if you add up the last four weeks of 5 day total deaths at that point this is what you get:

Wk 16 - 22 Aug Total of 5 day deaths = 29

Wk 23 - 29 Aug Total of 5 day deaths = 39

Wk 30 - 5 Sep Total of 5 day deaths = 36

Wk 6 - 12 Sep Total of 5 day deaths = 50

(And if you add up the total for the four days after that (so three more days of deaths to add before we could do another 7 days on these dates) the total is already 34 so looks very likely to be above 50 by then.


I have posted similar tables in here over the weeks and these numbers were consistently going down.


But that latest one above certainly presents a picture that looks like death numbers rising to close to double in a month.

This is England hospital deaths only remember. So consistent recording of data over those 4 weeks.

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

A 3 week lockdown now may save us a 3 month one later.

 

[shemnel]

Not sure closing pubs earlier will have much effect. People will just go out earlier and be pissed up earlier.

i dunno, where i live the incidence of public drunkeness and groups of pissed up lads/lasses bowling around town is definitely down, the atmosphere just isnt there. I dont go out as much admittedly but i definitely see less when i do.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

The health minister stated that rise in infections across North-East is likely linked to places like pubs, where people are less likely to adhere to social distancing measures and households meet up.

I agree with him but not sure that people socially distance until 10pm and then go wild. PersonallyI think only shutting pubs would achieve the desired effect but it seems they are very loathe to do that again.

 

[kaz7]

38k infections, between 8-20 deaths a day where it may have been a factor and we are talking about locking down. Even on a bad day the infection to mortality rate is 0.05%. Ridiculous.

You are still not getting it are you , we are going into winter with numbers going up all over europe

 

[kaz7]

No I would be gutted, but everyone dies at some point it's not exclusive to covid. Everyone has become that obsessed with this thing that all perspective has gone. It's nowhere near the biggest killer in the country at the moment. If it starts to escalate out of control then yes take more measures, but it's clearly not out of control.

Everyone dies at some point ? fuck me that is the worst thing in this entire thread

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Sadly the English hospital deaths now leave little room for argument that deaths are heading upwards and seemingly at a faster rate.

18 deaths - it was just 8 last Thursday. This is the biggest hospital rise in some time and fits all those extra ventilator patients that are taking us in this direction.

5 of the 18 are from the NW (versus 2 last Thursday) and all the cases are within the past 4 days including 16 of them in the last 72 hours.

Only 3 of the 18 deaths are NOT in the NW, Yorkshire or the Midlands. London had none as it has quite often lately.

This is clearly now getting real and I think arguments about further restrictions/lockdowns will soon be academic if this pattern that has been brewing in the data on here for a week or two now continues to escalate.

Not sure why the media are yet to wake up to the worrying rise in patients AND ventilator patients as it has been clear day to day for at least a week.

But these deaths will soon start to be noticed if this goes on sadly.

I suppose there will need to be a political decision on what an acceptable number of deaths are as opposed to shutting down the economy again. We are in a very different place than we were in March/April and there is no reason to suppose we will get anywhere near those catastrophic numbers, going forward.
If you remember, starting with Easter week, we had 22 consecutive days with over 1000 deaths every day, culminating on April 8, with 1445 deaths. Those days we were losing twice as many people every day as we would be expected, according to the 5 year average.

It does seem that, although cases are undoubtedly rising, the effects are looking like they are noticeably milder. All this will most likely be because many people are still socially distancing, wearing face coverings and generally being somewhat more careful in their day to day business.
There is also probably some sort of ‘herd immunity’ going on with Londoners and key workers, following their large exposure in March and April.

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

Everyone dies at some point ? fuck me that is the worst thing in this entire thread

Do you expect anything better from him? he's a bullshitter. He started off saying it was no worse than flu then it was posting Russian propaganda links while all the time say 20 minute saliva tests were about to be made available anytime now (last week the government admitted that they don't yet even exist). He's an agenda driven liar.

 

[True_Blue69]

Everyone dies at some point ? fuck me that is the worst thing in this entire thread

You think without covid we would all be immortal?