COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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blueparrot said:
They will have been much higher first time round, only the very ill going to hospital were being tested. If I remember they were saying the number of cases were estimated at10x higher than the positive tests. So when we were getting about 6000 at day it would have been about 60,000 really.
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I have read (hopefully, not misread) that estimates suggest that between 0.5% and 1% of those who get the virus will pass (rep sample, I expect). If that is the case, then based on c62k excess deaths, between 6.2m-12.4m may have had the virus. Not far off 20% of the population at the high end. Mind blowing, if that is the case. Of course, plenty of caveats with the data.
 
blueparrot said:
They will have been much higher first time round, only the very ill going to hospital were being tested. If I remember they were saying the number of cases were estimated at10x higher than the positive tests. So when we were getting about 6000 at day it would have been about 60,000 really.
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Surely that must mean nearly everyone has had it now then? 60k a day over the last 9 months alone means over 15,000,000 have had it. If those figures are under the real figures it could mean the majority have caught it.
 
kaz7 said:
what is less than 4 ?

did you get hold of randy andy ?
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I think you said immunity was less than 4 months the other day? Now looks like at least 6?

Yes - think fed up! Months in lockdown.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Whereas it's what now? 100,000 really? Who knows how many people are asymptomatic and not being counted in the 24,000 daily figures right now.

You are surely not suggesting the 24,000 includes every case? Of course it does not. You only get a free test right now if you have symptoms, or are living with someone with symptoms. So anyone who is infected and asymptomatic is probably not going to be included in those figures.

There's a reason the scientists are fearing this second peak may be worse than the first, and the reason is not that LESS people are infected.
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No I’m not, and haven’t seen an estimate. If though the 10% figure was anywhere near accurate, and with asymptomatic who knows, but if it was with the testing and contract tracing available, we must be doing far better than finding 10% of cases. Throwing a number out there say we are finding 30% of cases that would put current levels at around 60,000 a day. But we are guessing here we can’t know for sure.
The only true comparison we have is those in hospital so watching that over the weeks will tell us if more or less are getting infected than the spring.
 
Ages of infections in Scotland today

109 people aged over 65
Including 30 aged over 85

77 kids aged under 15
19 of whom are aged under 5

152 people aged 15-24

614 people aged 25-64
 
kaz7 said:
The researchers say that while this study is encouraging and implies people have come cellular immunity to the virus, it does not mean people can not contract Covid-19 twice.

'It does not mean you can not get re-infected...' Professor Moss says.

'This can not be taken as confirmation of an immunity passport. Absolutely can not do that.'
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oh come on Kaz, its very good news when there is little of that about at present. If this was negative news I get the feeling you would be reinforcing it on here.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Of course what you say is sound advice, but playing devil's advocate, you could say it's about WHEN you want a quality of life. Lounging around, drinking too much and eating pies, I find to be extremely high quality ;-) Though it may not be ideal preparation for old age, I grant you.
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You're missing a trick here. I enjoy lounging around, drinking too much and eating pies too. I also enjoyed running marathons and running 20 miles a week for the last 30 years. Drinking beer and exercise are not mutually exclusive.

I can get a bigger buzz from a 5 mile run than from 5 pints of beer. Best of all though is a 10 mile run followed by 10 pints of beer!

Look after your body and it will look after you.
 
inchy14 said:
Surely that must mean nearly everyone has had it now then? 60k a day over the last 9 months alone means over 15,000,000 have had it. If those figures are under the real figures it could mean the majority have caught it.
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Serology (antibody blood tests) are generally regarded as the most reliable. There are problems with this, as noone can be certain everyone develops antibodies at detectable levels and they are now known to drop off with time.

They indicate less than 10% have had it, and that's in line with modeling of the pandemic.

Noone suggests there have been 60,000 daily all through this, that's just the current peak.

Serology as reported in BMJ:
www.bmj.com

Covid-19: Antibody prevalence in England fell from 6.0% to 4.4% over three months, study finds

The number of people in England who tested positive for IgG antibodies against covid-19 fell by 26% from June to September, a large study of 365 000 adults has found. Results from the REACT (real time assessment of community transmission) antibody study, available as a preprint paper,1 showed...
www.bmj.com www.bmj.com
 
blueparrot said:
No I’m not, and haven’t seen an estimate. If though the 10% figure was anywhere near accurate, and with asymptomatic who knows, but if it was with the testing and contract tracing available, we must be doing far better than finding 10% of cases. Throwing a number out there say we are finding 30% of cases that would put current levels at around 60,000 a day. But we are guessing here we can’t know for sure.
The only true comparison we have is those in hospital so watching that over the weeks will tell us if more or less are getting infected than the spring.
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10/30 x 24,000 = 80,000 mate.
 
FantasyIreland said:
NWAS have declared a major incident due to extreme volume of calls........
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

BREAKING: North West Ambulance Service declares 'major incident'

Ambulance service bosses declared the status due to the high volume of 999 calls
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk
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And herein lies the problem because of pricks who stub their toes and want an ambulance, the sooner the nhs adopt a call challenging system and charge for shit stuff the better. It wouldn’t lead to people not calling for serious stuff it would weed out the dicks who think they are entitled.
 
inchy14 said:
Surely that must mean nearly everyone has had it now then? 60k a day over the last 9 months alone means over 15,000,000 have had it. If those figures are under the real figures it could mean the majority have caught it.
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The numbers of tests are tests not people , they stopped giving us number of people months ago
 
Tommy_Catons_Perm said:
You're missing a trick here. I enjoy lounging around, drinking too much and eating pies too. I also enjoyed running marathons and running 20 miles a week for the last 30 years. Drinking beer and exercise are not mutually exclusive.

I can get a bigger buzz from a 5 mile run than from 5 pints of beer. Best of all though is a 10 mile run followed by 10 pints of beer!

Look after your body and it will look after you.
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All good advice of course. I was only jesting. In terms of not putting the NHS at undue risk due to my behavior however, I certainly don't do this:



Thinking about it, it's more like putting the undertakers' services at risk.
 
In a Twitter post soon after the prime minister's announcement, Chancellor Rishi Sunak said: "We're increasing the support to the self-employed from 40% of trading profits to 80% for November.

"SEISS is calculated over 3 months so this increases the total grant from 40% to 55% of trading profits for November to January and the max grant increases to £5,160."
 
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