COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Finding this lockdown harder than the first. missing City, swimming, pubs and my dad. the dark mornings and just winter blues really kicked in. 563 dead yesterday was horrid. so tragic. So many people must be strugglimg mentally.
I feel the same mate.
Back at the start of the lockdown it was a bit of a weird novelty. We also pretty much had blanket sunshine and feel like we were living in Spain during the 1920's (before cars took over the streets etc). Quite an odd time.

Now we're all jaded and add the shorter, darker days and it all adds up.
This is why we have winter festivals...to celebrate 'something' to lift our spirits in the dark, mid winter.
With those being cancelled it's going to be tougher (I know xmas won't be cancelled, but it won't be the same).

I enjoyed my summer evening dog walks so much. Often go out for 1-2 hours with my daughter's dog. Walking off piste, bumping (socially distanced bumping) poeope it was quite beautiful.

Only seems a few weeks ago I was in shorts and sandals doing that evening walk. I thought about this last night doing the same walk, but this time in the pitch black dark and slightly chilly weather.

I decided to embrace it though and will do my 'summer evening dog walks' throughout the winter (often walking through dark woods with no one else in sight. I now do a 11k 2 hour walk with the mutt and these are helping my wellbeing considerably (as does running).

We can see the light at the end of the tunnel and hopefuly, when the dust has settled, we'll be better of from this grim experience. Never a bad thing to gain more empathy through such experiences.
 
So, back from visit number 3 of the Novovax trial. Lots of questions asked at the briefing session today. What I learned.

As many as 11 different vaccines are currently in the pipeline and the hope is that numerous vaccines will become available. Novovax is stored at fridge temperature, so distribution is easier. Different vaccines will suit different people.

At the moment, the expectation is that any vaccine will not give a life times immunity.

For those of us on the trial, if offered the Pfizer vaccine, we would be unblinded. For those who have had the placebo, they will be encouraged to have the Pfizer vaccine. There has been no decision made on what happens to those who have had the Novavax vaccine.

All those of us there today were under 60. Novavax is hoping to have preliminary results around March. Their belief is that at that point noone under 60, in the UK, will have been offered any licensed vaccine.
 
I'm wagering it is a blip, the same way a huge sudden drop is. We don't all get overly excited when that happens so don't think we should be panicking unless it is the same for the next few days

If you check this out it doesn't show the blip on the "by specimen date" so it does look like a processing backlog issue.

 
i'm not knowledgeable about seroprevalence and antibodies; could someone please explain why the antibody level is not rising with the massive increase in positive tests? (or maybe it is?) (might be something to do with T-cells?)

View attachment 5302

week 42 is October 12, 2020 - October 18, 2020 so quite early on in the 2nd wave. and it can take 1-3+ weeks after infection for Antibodies to show in blood so the last sample there is probably showing mid to late sept's infections.

Its not a full answer but could be why there is a lag.

"An antibody test may not show if you have a current COVID-19 infection because it can take 1–3 weeks after infection for your body to make antibodies."
 
So, back from visit number 3 of the Novovax trial. Lots of questions asked at the briefing session today. What I learned.

As many as 11 different vaccines are currently in the pipeline and the hope is that numerous vaccines will become available. Novovax is stored at fridge temperature, so distribution is easier. Different vaccines will suit different people.

At the moment, the expectation is that any vaccine will not give a life times immunity.

For those of us on the trial, if offered the Pfizer vaccine, we would be unblinded. For those who have had the placebo, they will be encouraged to have the Pfizer vaccine. There has been no decision made on what happens to those who have had the Novavax vaccine.

All those of us there today were under 60. Novavax is hoping to have preliminary results around March. Their belief is that at that point noone under 60, in the UK, will have been offered any licensed vaccine.

I was reading the novavax shot is the one they have the biggest hope for as it is protein based. Haven’t got a clue what means to us mere mortals, there are a lot of advances coming down the track for the planet to give covid the big fuck you in the next 18 months.
 
i'm not knowledgeable about seroprevalence and antibodies; could someone please explain why the antibody level is not rising with the massive increase in positive tests? (or maybe it is?) (might be something to do with T-cells?)

View attachment 5302
Honest answer is I don't know the reason but blood donors are not allowed to donate within 28 days of symptoms or 14 days of being in contact with someone with symptoms, plus there is a lag for antibodies to develop plus the levels are actually showing a rise all be it small in all areas outside London.
 
So, back from visit number 3 of the Novovax trial. Lots of questions asked at the briefing session today. What I learned.

As many as 11 different vaccines are currently in the pipeline and the hope is that numerous vaccines will become available. Novovax is stored at fridge temperature, so distribution is easier. Different vaccines will suit different people.

At the moment, the expectation is that any vaccine will not give a life times immunity.

For those of us on the trial, if offered the Pfizer vaccine, we would be unblinded. For those who have had the placebo, they will be encouraged to have the Pfizer vaccine. There has been no decision made on what happens to those who have had the Novavax vaccine.

All those of us there today were under 60. Novavax is hoping to have preliminary results around March. Their belief is that at that point noone under 60, in the UK, will have been offered any licensed vaccine.
Thanks for that, I'm there on Thursday for the health check....food for thought.
 
Finding this lockdown harder than the first. missing City, swimming, pubs and my dad. the dark mornings and just winter blues really kicked in. 563 dead yesterday was horrid. so tragic. So many people must be strugglimg mentally.
Same here, I've been working from home since March and the novelty is wearing thin now. I was 100% for working from home full time but now mixed working is the way to go as you start to go mad.

The main thing is you burn out quickly because you never 'go home' from work and with the pubs and restaurants being shut, the weather.... It's barely worth going outside now so it's like being in prison.

We are forcing ourselves to drive to the Lakes this weekend purely to sit in the car, have a walk and then drive back...
 
If you check this out it doesn't show the blip on the "by specimen date" so it does look like a processing backlog issue.

It would not do so - though - as this adds cases on a day by day basis over a 5 day period as the tests are allocated to the correct date given. It is why most of the gov data used is 5 days behind. Because it is accurate to the cases on the date which only settles after that period.

That's why I don't usually post it here because a lot of the problems - imo - come from depending on 5 day old data for its accuracy and missing important changes until they have bedded in that can appear in the testing numbers. This was how the Bolton epidemic was only slowly reacted to by many politicians as it did not show up on the accurate data for a few days.

From what I have observed they do not add beyond 5 days because the case totals always match the numbers based on adding the daily reported numbers together. So any backlog beyond that would have been apparent already I suspect by a huge mismatch appearing with the total posted for the total number of cases for somewhere.

Many of the cases that would have triggered yesterday's big rise - if it is real - will be from the days which are either incomplete or barely started to have anything added yet - as in the last 2 or 3.

In two or three days we might see if there is a build up of cases being added then. That is a possibility.
 
Same here, I've been working from home since March and the novelty is wearing thin now. I was 100% for working from home full time but now mixed working is the way to go as you start to go mad.

The main thing is you burn out quickly because you never 'go home' from work and with the pubs and restaurants being shut, the weather.... It's barely worth going outside now so it's like being in prison.

We are forcing ourselves to drive to the Lakes this weekend purely to sit in the car, have a walk and then drive back...
Do it mate. I got up at 5:30 last Saturday and drove out to get pics of the sunrise. Spent a couple of hours walking and taking images of the Pennines. Staying at home constantly is just depressing.
 
Young people


When i got post viral fatigue (ME) it was called yuppie flu , drs werent interested , they all said it was in the mind , the first dr i saw said it is stress, get out on the tennis court , i used to play , sweat it out , i collapsed and ended up in hosp

My second dr had an 18yr old girl in a wheelchair and he had not been able to work it out, as i had similar he researched it and put together with my findings and having been tested for everytning else we discovered ME and fibro

Back then magnesium injections were the only treatment, i weighed six and half stone and the injections were agony

A lot of long covid are ME , there are treatments now and graded daily tasks , it is all about rest and stopping before you feel exhausted, it is a horrible and frustrating illness

Add in lung, heart and other organ damage/stress and it is the perfect, shitty storm
 
Same here, I've been working from home since March and the novelty is wearing thin now. I was 100% for working from home full time but now mixed working is the way to go as you start to go mad.

The main thing is you burn out quickly because you never 'go home' from work and with the pubs and restaurants being shut, the weather.... It's barely worth going outside now so it's like being in prison.

We are forcing ourselves to drive to the Lakes this weekend purely to sit in the car, have a walk and then drive back...
Enjoy it bud. I've been cycling at night, roads are quiet, it can be terrifying at times but I feel great afterwards.
 
These are the Manchester totals per day over the past week on the 'allocated to the day' table.

5- 11 Nov = 333 - 336 - 246 - 234 - 370 - 216 - 1

But these are shown as adding up to an overall total of 24, 401.

Those days add up to 1736

These are the cases REPORTED for Manchester for the dates in the daily data posted for Manchester.

238 - 380 - 270 - 249 - 253 - 310 - 443

Those add up to 2143 - 407 more - but again the total cases are shown as 24, 401

It is impossible to know where the difference comes from even if you go backwards for weeks as the numbers never match. But IF the Gov UK site is accurate (I agree not as obvious a given as you would assume it to be but we have to assume yes) then the cumulative total (24 401) must do if you track back far enough and allow for the incompleteness of the last two dates (the 216 and 1).

If there really are 407 cases not yet allocated to previous days then it surely is most likely to be the two most recent ones which only have 217 'allocated' as opposed to 753 reported to be added on to those two days. With some added to the past few days too.

I have NEVER seen big jumps or indeed any obvious changes to dates beyond the 5 days back. Though if an error has occurred and never has before it is possible it might now.

It is, of course, possible - then - that there is some backlog that will add these extra cases to the previous days but the overall total will still be the same as it is now and unless we are talking many days of errors (I agree not impossible) then it really does not matter unduly as the actual total cases will still have gone up by 33 470 yesterday.

We will know I assume if they drop a lot again tonight. That would only really make sense with a big backlog catch up yesterday.

But the last time they 'lost' cases they admitted it right away to quell fears of a dramatic rise in one day that then occurred as they added on the backlog.

They have not here and you would assume they would have taken that chance to clarify if it was not a real rise.

Of course, if they actually do not even know what is happening to all the tests and nobody had noticed and they are now scrambling around trying to figure out where the 'lost' cases came from then that is in some ways more worrying than the cases jumping in one day by so many.
 
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Young people


When i got post viral fatigue (ME) it was called yuppie flu , drs werent interested , they all said it was in the mind , the first dr i saw said it is stress, get out on the tennis court , i used to play , sweat it out , i collapsed and ended up in hosp

My second dr had an 18yr old girl in a wheelchair and he had not been able to work it out, as i had similar he researched it and put together with my findings and having been tested for everytning else we discovered ME and fibro

Back then magnesium injections were the only treatment, i weighed six and half stone and the injections were agony

A lot of long covid are ME , there are treatments now and graded daily tasks , it is all about rest and stopping before you feel exhausted, it is a horrible and frustrating illness

Add in lung, heart and other organ damage/stress and it is the perfect, shitty storm
Young people this year:
Number of 5-24 yr olds died from Covid: 410
Number of 5-24 yr olds died from other causes: 23, 569

There are exceptions for all diseases and yes, some young people will be badly affected but the chances of them becoming ill, short, medium and long term are extremely low. But that wouldn't make a headline would it?
 
I should add the complexity of understanding the difference in every set of figures for the ones published on the day and the ones back allocated to the previous 5 days is why I don't often refer to this older data. It rarely helps clarify anything. And if something has gone wrong here may be why they have missed an error via the confusion.
 
Young people this year:
Number of 5-24 yr olds died from Covid: 410
Number of 5-24 yr olds died from other causes: 23, 569

There are exceptions for all diseases and yes, some young people will be badly affected but the chances of them becoming ill, short, medium and long term are extremely low. But that wouldn't make a headline would it?
long covid is not about dying , anyone can get it , no matter how severe or mildly you have covid , hundreds of thousands have it , young people need to know that they can get long or even permanent illness, it is not about them dying, deny all you like, stop quoting me
 
Scotland data up first:

Tragic day

56 deaths

1357 cases at 5.7 % positive

433 Greater Glasgow 267 Lanarkshire 168 Lothian

1228 Patients (up 21)

96 Ventilated (down 2)
 
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Scotland 3 wks ago v 2 wks v last wk v today

Deaths 18 v 28 v 31 v 56 today - Worrying rise there to worst in second wave.

Cases 1196 v 1281 v 1072 v 1357 today - The first time in a while the reduction in cases or the plateau effect has bot been obvious. And indeed here has even reversed.

Patients 975 v 1170 v 1237 v 1228 today - this is better news and again tracking the NW quite closely in the patient numbers stabilising and then slightly falling as seen in past week or so. Of course, patients dying in both Scotland and the NW at high levels makes that reduction more likely. But is not enough to explain it all. The slowdown is real.

Ventilted icu beds 76 v 83 v 98 v 96 today. Again a drop - though the same caveat about the deaths which will have even more relevance to these numbers.
 
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