COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

It is a blog by sky , rolling news, it is official numbers so not their opinion and can be found everywhere the same as all the other official numbers posted on here

R numbers are not ‘official numbers’ because they cannot measure it in real time and so it is fairly meaningless. They make a guess by working backwards and then modelling what it might have been and then take a punt on what it is. As a way to make policy it is so far away from what it was intended for its untrue.

The only time a National R number would be true and useful is if the entire population is tested every week, which it obviously isn’t. That’s why the Zoe App and the Covid triage service are more likely to be accurate as they operate in almost real time.

 

[inchy14]

The odds of long covid are not "extremely low".

there are currently an estimated 300k people in UK with long Covid.


by all accounts.

1 in 5 have it for more than a month.
1 in 20 over 3 months.

Pretty sure anyone recovering fro pneumonia or a serious flu condition will have affects for a good few months after if not longer... I’ll be concerned about long COVID if it’s still prevalent in 12 months or so in people.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

Anyone see the Eton Musk story ...

Has a car manufacturer sponsored a science lab at the UKs pre eminent public school?

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Finding this lockdown harder than the first. missing City, swimming, pubs and my dad. the dark mornings and just winter blues really kicked in. 563 dead yesterday was horrid. so tragic. So many people must be strugglimg mentally.

Hang in there fella, things WILL improve in the next few months.

 

[inchy14]

Anyone see the Eton Musk story ...

Go on....

 

[kaz7]

R numbers are not ‘official numbers’ because they cannot measure it in real time and so it is fairly meaningless. They make a guess by working backwards and then modelling what it might have been and then take a punt on what it is. As a way to make policy it is so far away from what it was intended for its untrue.

The only time a National R number would be true and useful is if the entire population is tested every week, which it obviously isn’t. That’s why the Zoe App and the Covid triage service are more likely to be accurate as they operate in almost real time.

It is an official brief i mean so not an actual link , just lumped in with the rest of the rolling news

The R is based on data not modelling , that is why there is a lag

 

[kaz7]

Pretty sure anyone recovering fro pneumonia or a serious flu condition will have affects for a good few months after if not longer... I’ll be concerned about long COVID if it’s still prevalent in 12 months or so in people.

Not anywhere near the same numbers , eight months for me and permanent asthma

 

[Barcon]

Just a couple of small examples here but I know two people that have had covid, both youngish police officers that were in good physical shape. One now has brain lesions and the other heart problems. I personally don't want to contract it and take my chances.

 

[johnnytapia]

Mayor of Liverpool says the rapid testing in Liverpool up to today has in the first week tested 90,000 people and only 430 of them tested positive. Under 0.5%. Less than half of those who tested positive had any symptoms.

Less than half - how close?

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Finding this lockdown harder than the first. missing City, swimming, pubs and my dad. the dark mornings and just winter blues really kicked in. 563 dead yesterday was horrid. so tragic. So many people must be strugglimg mentally.

It wasn’t 563 and hasn’t been that high since May 1st. I know the numbers are pretty horrific but they are ‘reported’ not actual. Look at the graph and you’ll see we never had a day over 1000 deaths but that number is oft reported.

As with most things in life, some context is usually worthwhile. In November, December and January we usually have about 180000 deaths in the UK, over half of them are over 75 years of age and many of them die from a respiratory ailment. That’s just under 2000 per day. Many of the people in the daily Covid update would, of course, have been in the figures for this year if we reported daily deaths and there was no Covid.

 

[kaz7]

I'm denying nothing Karen. I'm simply putting other stats out there to give a semblance of balance.

it dint need anything added to it , it is a stand alone fact about a condition caused by covid, saying well x number of youngster die is not remotely relevant

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

It is an official brief i mean so not an actual link , just lumped in with the rest of the rolling news

The R is based on data not modelling , that is why there is a lag

But it’s based on old data so is fairy pointless.

 

[Barcon]

But it’s based on old data so is fairy pointless.

Is that like a moo point?

 

[kaz7]

But it’s based on old data so is fairy pointless.

That is how data works

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Is that like a moo point?

It certainly i

 

[kaz7]

It wasn’t 563 and hasn’t been that high since May 1st. I know the numbers are pretty horrific but they are ‘reported’ not actual. Look at the graph and you’ll see we never had a day over 1000 deaths but that number is oft reported.

As with most things in life, some context is usually worthwhile. In November, December and January we usually have about 180000 deaths in the UK, over half of them are over 75 years of age and many of them die from a respiratory ailment. That’s just under 2000 per day. Many of the people in the daily Covid update would, of course, have been in the figures for this year if we reported daily deaths and there was no Covid.
View attachment 5306

why do you keep comparing it to other illnesses like that matters ? It is a highly infectious illness we have no immunity to, a pandemic , well x number died of other things is again not relevant , tell me why deaths are reported and not actual

 

[johnnytapia]

Just a couple of small examples here but I know two people that have had covid, both youngish police officers that were in good physical shape. One now has brain lesions and the other heart problems. I personally don't want to contract it and take my chances.

That is grim, I doubt anyone wants to contract it. We've had four positive tests at school with staff, two teachers in their 20s-30s, both had 3-5 days additional time off due to severe fatigue but now, thankfully, fully recovered. Two TAs, both in fifties, one came back on half days, again, due to fatigue but is now back full time and fully fit. The other had two additional weeks off but now back and fully recovered.
Within the same staff, we have one whose two sisters are now receiving intensive chemo for cancer, one whose partner is now recovering from operation to remove brain tumour and one who is in remission from treatment for cervical cancer. On a more positive note, we've had 5 new babies within staff and this has brought much joy in what, sometimes can be a never ending barrage of gloom.

 

[somapop]

Presumably this Musk story?

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

29 deaths tragically

But 797 cases somewhat better - from 9129 tests.

3 wks ago v 2 wks v last wk v today

Deaths 13 v 11 v 13 v 29 today

Cases 764 v 1737 v 1352 v 797 today - looks better news.

 

[peter101]

Not wishing to put a dampener on things but I think you have to prepare for the vaccine not being as successful as hoped. Only a few people got covid in the sample and I believe most of those had mild symptoms. There is no proof yet the vaccine will prevent severe covid which is what we should be worried about