COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Testing though slipped over last 2 days again.

Pillar 1 & 2

Friday 364, 210 (Cases found 26, 860)

Saturday 330, 673 (cases found 24, 962)

Yesterday 264, 045 (cases found 21, 363)

So - yes - 5000 fewer cases than two days ago - but 100,000 fewer tests cannot be ignored as a possible factor in why.
 
Just catching up with the news and they were saying about this US vaccine that only 5% of those who had the vaccine and not the placebo went on to catch covid, therefore it is 95% effective. I might be missing the point or being thick, but surely to claim it is effective at protecting you from catching it, you must have been exposed to it and not catch it. As I say, I might be barking totally up the wrong tree.

Once they hit a pre determined number of people taking part in the trshowing symptoms they open up the results to see who had the vaccine and who had the placebo

95% had the placebo
5% had the vaccine

as mentioned on here earlier

The Oxford vaccine would probably have been approved October time if we hadnt supressed the virus so much over summer
 
What frustrates me about the public presentation of the data is, as you see from the media posts that Kaz reproduces, numbers are always being phrased in the most negative way.

Yes, if it calls for it you need to be honest and do that. But citing what were actually pretty good Sunday death data as if they are bad because they are the highest since May is needless. Every day that rises will be. Its pretty obvious.

So - factually true - yes - in so far as it goes. But what it misses entirely is the context of the week to week rise - which in the current pandemic is way more significant than being the highest number since the first wave - which is a bit like saying it is colder today than it was in May. True, but not the main thing you need to know about the weather right now.

I cite this kind of data too but not without background and any mitigation.

The numbers in hospital deaths yesterday were week to week in the nations Scotland 3 down to 0, Wales 19 down to 16. N Ireland 7 up to 9 and England 122 up to 133.

Two of the four nations fell week to week and the other 2 rose by an amount that is hard to characterise as worrying.

And the overall numbers in context were of a slowing of the increase.

Balanced reporting should not be focusing on doom and gloom to the exclusion of context.

Yes it is important to be real and stress when numbers are bad and get across that this is no cakewalk and things are serious but if you are informing the public that needs to be tempered with honesty as and when things look brighter from a wider context than just more people died today than yesterday.

The whole story is not told by simple mathematics.
Spot on.
When the news of the pandemic became mainstream I would read this thread everyday and watch the BBC news at 6.
it didn’t take long before both got binned due the constant negativity in reporting simple facts.
The news should be reporting facts, however the reporters think they are the news and so are constantly reporting their opinions and skewing it to their particular bias.
I now only log on here to read your stats and the odd poster’s reaction.
There’s far too many negative opinions, poor advice and clearly wrong information constantly given out as the font of all knowledge.
More discussion is required with open rather than closed minds.
 
Once they hit a pre determined number of people taking part in the trshowing symptoms they open up the results to see who had the vaccine and who had the placebo

95% had the placebo
5% had the vaccine

as mentioned on here earlier

The Oxford vaccine would probably have been approved October time if we hadnt supressed the virus so much over summer
that wasn't how it was expressed on tonight's 6 o'clock news. They said what percentage had been given the placebo and of the remainder (who got the trial vaccine) only 5% of that amount contacted covid, therefore claiming 95% effective.

Im just curious as their logic didn't seem quite right to me
 
Dr David Navarro (WHO) equally excited too.
Almost impossible for him to bottle in his excitement. How you could take away from that that vaccines are a global conspiracy to maim/bug....I've no idea.
These conspiracy theorists seem to be breeding like flies. I’ve got another one on my FB chucking all sorts of shit around. He sent me a link to that Yeadon guy (ex Pfizer) earlier. Yeadon said last week that there’s no need to vaccinate everyone against something that will not kill a large percentage of people. Now I’m not sure what his thinking is behind that and I’m not doubting his knowledge but for all the scientists around the world who are excited about the vaccine news, this conspiracy theorist has gone and conveniently picked out someone with a negative viewpoint.

The same person sent me a video of some bellend walking around the perimeter of the Manchester Nightingale spouting off that Johnson had said the Nightingales “were overwhelmed” and that the fact that they’re not at all busy (as shown in his videos) means that we’ve been lied to and that this whole virus is a hoax. I posted back saying that no-one has ever said that the Nightingales are currently overwhelmed - just that they might be if this second wave gets much worse. Full reply of mine below:

“Nobody said the Nightingales were overwhelmed. They said they may become overwhelmed at some point in the future if we don’t get on top of this second wave. Even The Times has said the Nightingales may remain largely empty due to staff shortages and that article was only 8 days ago so that video you’ve posted proves nothing because no-one ever said they are already overwhelmed. Maybe that person should go to a regular hospital rather than an overspill and then he’ll see how real this pandemic is”
 
Just catching up with the news and they were saying about this US vaccine that only 5% of those who had the vaccine and not the placebo went on to catch covid, therefore it is 95% effective. I might be missing the point or being thick, but surely to claim it is effective at protecting you from catching it, you must have been exposed to it and not catch it. As I say, I might be barking totally up the
Sending them out early aren’t they?
Thought there was no chance of a vaccine until April at the earliest?
They said they hope they maybe able to start the vaccinations just before Christmas
 
Hope this isn't a stupid question but are those who have taken part in the clinical trials of the vaccines exposed to covid to see whether they develop symptoms?
No not at present. They are talking about ‘challenge’ trials possibly in the new year. The vaccine trial I am on recruited from areas with high rates of infections, and has targeted people who are exposed to some element of risk in their daily life. So preferably working in jobs with the public, using public transport etc.
 
Do not get too excited about the drop in cases as our chaotic testing has messed up YET again.

I do not understand the details but they have reassessed thousands of cases and guess what?

This is what they say on the site:-

"PHE has updated the way it records the location of people who have been tested for COVID-19. Counts of cases and deaths at sub-national level have been updated to reflect this."

Well it reflects it in a very odd way

Turns out London have lost many of the big numbers they had and only gets 674 added today - thousands less than recent days. And a number they have not seen in many weeks.

I bet you do not need ten guesses to know where all the reassessed cases have ended up increasing.

You got it.

NW shoots up today to 4580 - 1475 up on yesterday despite cases plummeting nationally today.

No wonder they did not want this farce exposed before the press conference.

There is a long explanation somewhere but I am not going to read it as frankly I don't believe anyone has a clue on how to run testing, tracing or web sites in Gov uk.

So it will no doubt be anyone's guess what really happened.

Not that it matters - its only cases that can lead to life or death so of course there is no big deal here.
 
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No not at present. They are talking about ‘challenge’ trials possibly in the new year. The vaccine trial I am on recruited from areas with high rates of infections, and has targeted people who are exposed to some element of risk in their daily life. So preferably working in jobs with the public, using public transport etc.
So how can they claim an effectiveness % without these challenge trials?
 
Regional Scoreboard - for however much we can treat this as credible

London 674 - was 2643 - or whatever number it really was.

Midlands 3455 - up from 3125 - or whatever number....you get the picture

North East 3365 - up from 1483 - or of course not really but something or other higher than that.

Yorkshire 3595 - up from 3306 - or ????

And North West 4580 - up big from 3105 - or the real number that was likely somewhere in between.

I think we might be better off if Uri Geller was predicting these numbers. They might be more reliable.
 
As you can imagine the numbers will all appear to have skyrocketed today and the falls in the NW of recent weeks will be more of an illusion.

Not that some of these people running our country could probably find the North West on a map I suspect.
 
As you can imagine the numbers will all appear to have skyrocketed today and the falls in the NW of recent weeks will be more of an illusion.

Not that some of these people running our country could probably find the North West on a map I suspect.
And these numbers will be used to decide what happens to us after Dec 2nd. Scary.
 
The South East added just 95 and the East ZERO today.

I am told they have reallocated lots of university students as nobody had a consistent plan on whether to count them as being located where they tested or where they lived!
 
My wife has just come home
she has worked on ITU at Tameside all through this fucking shit
she's just told me me of yet another death
a bloke in his late 60's
2 relatives only allowed to go in has they switched his life support machine off

talk all about your number etc

I'v had to listen to all these personal stories since March now

Iv been on an early myself and been drinking,sorry for letting off steam
 
that wasn't how it was expressed on tonight's 6 o'clock news. They said what percentage had been given the placebo and of the remainder (who got the trial vaccine) only 5% of that amount contacted covid, therefore claiming 95% effective.

Im just curious as their logic didn't seem quite right to me
You divide say 10,000 people into two groups and give 5,000 the vaccine and 5,000 the placebo by random sorting.
After say 105 people have tested positive you unblind the trial to see how many were in each group. If there were 100 in the placebo group and 5 in the vaccine group, you then make the following assumption that 100 people were exposed to the virus enough to develop symptoms and be tested positive. Because the groups are randomly allocated you assume that the exposure for each group is similar. If only 5 people in the vaccine group; are positive this implies that the vaccine is 95% effective. This is clearly an estimate and the statisticians then have to calculate the confidence intervals around the number to satisfy the regulator that the estimate is good enough.
 
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