Another new Brexit thread

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blueparrot said:
I don't care what brexit anybody says they wanted. I just don't believe anyone that says they thought we'd get to 6 weeks from the end of the transition time,41/2 years after the vote with no deal in place and no time to implement the infrastructure required for any deal that's agreed,or no deal at all to go smoothly.
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Tbh I envisaged the whole thing being over and done with two years ago.
 
Ancient Citizen said:
Agreed, and I also believe a deal is due.
Then the shit or no shit can be analysed.
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We know roughly what the deal will be. The hold up is over the well documented sticking points. It’s a skinny FTA that focuses on goods and tariffs and ignores services, and non-tariff barriers. It’s the sort of FTA that would have been struck a century ago.

The plus points of this deal over ‘no deal’ is that it will contain provisions on things like security and science cooperation. It will also make managing the new customs border between GB and NI easier.

Other than that it’s fairly unambitious and guarantees that we will be at the negotiating table with the EU for the next decade or so trying to claw back what we currently enjoy.
 
BobKowalski said:
We know roughly what the deal will be. The hold up is over the well documented sticking points. It’s a skinny FTA that focuses on goods and tariffs and ignores services, and non-tariff barriers. It’s the sort of FTA that would have been struck a century ago.

The plus points of this deal over ‘no deal’ is that it will contain provisions on things like security and science cooperation. It will also make managing the new customs border between GB and NI easier.

Other than that it’s fairly unambitious and guarantees that we will be at the negotiating table with the EU for the next decade or so trying to claw back what we currently enjoy.
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it is like packing in your job being confident you will get a better one, but as your ending date looms having the offer of a piss poor job in the table and having to take it.
 
Ancient Citizen said:
Sorry, I'm not into the Mystic Meg stuff.
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You don’t need Mystic Meg to tell you that introducing non tariff barriers will have an impact on trade. That’s happening irrespective of the FTA and if you don’t believe it check out the government website which identifies all the extra things businesses need to do. The only way round it is for an additional transition period to be agreed which is a sell out for you guys.
 
Ancient Citizen said:
I voted to leave the EU, parliament refused to implement that vote for 4 years, until relatively recent events. We have left the EU and are currently in the process of negotiating with them to obtain a mutually acceptable trading partnership, that process is ongoing, but by recent accounts is nearing completion, one way or another.
So yes, the above is exactly what I voted for, albeit years late, if the results
of said talks end in agreements I believe are favourable to this country, fine, if
not, I'll say so. You appear to be inferring that the outcome is detrimental prior to its resolution, I prefer to wait and see.
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So you'd have been happy if we did like Norway and were not members but paid in to enjoy all the benefits of membership.
 
blueinsa said:
I think Lurpakgate has swung it though.

I know the thought of not being able to buy a £5 tub of fake butter on the 1st of Jan 2021 has made me have a rethink.
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It will be dearer than that I have been stockpiling it next to the spam. Anyhow as the country are now anti brexit I look forward to us rejoining after the next election.

I apologise to all those with unbuttered and bacon free butties during this time. Those lay-by food vans will go out of business just as millions of lorries are parked in Kent for months at a time. It should have been a bonanza for them.
 
Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
Very similar to polling leading up the the referendum.
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No it wasn't. It was about 50/50 in the run up to the vote until the Jo Cox murder which swung it towards Remain for the last week. There were no YouGov polls where Remain was more than 5% ahead and most were between 1% and 3% either way. This latest YouGov poll has a 13% gap. So nothing like the pre-referendum polling.
 
blueinsa said:
I think Lurpakgate has swung it though.

I know the thought of not being able to buy a £5 tub of fake butter on the 1st of Jan 2021 has made me have a rethink.
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My normal dairy list includes President (French) Butter, Parmesan Cheese, Gorgonzola, Greek Yogurt and often a nice bit of emmental, gouda, manchego, buffalo mozzarella, ricotta. Will I be ok do you think?
 
Saddleworth2 said:
My normal dairy list includes President (French) Butter, Parmesan Cheese, Gorgonzola, Greek Yogurt and often a nice bit of emmental, gouda, manchego, buffalo mozzarella, ricotta. Will I be ok do you think?
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100% certain you will be.
 
Saddleworth2 said:
My normal dairy list includes President (French) Butter, Parmesan Cheese, Gorgonzola, Greek Yogurt and often a nice bit of emmental, gouda, manchego, buffalo mozzarella, ricotta. Will I be ok do you think?
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Your mood may grow but the waistline should shrink:-)

Get brexit obliterate obesity, should have put it on the side of a bus.
 
west didsblue said:
No it wasn't. It was about 50/50 in the run up to the vote until the Jo Cox murder which swung it towards Remain for the last week. There were no YouGov polls where Remain was more than 5% ahead and most were between 1% and 3% either way. This latest YouGov poll has a 13% gap. So nothing like the pre-referendum polling.
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Indeed. From the polls I remember, the difference between 'leave' and 'remain' was marginal when taking into account the confidence interval.

Here are the details of the final poll IpsosMORI carried out just before 23 June 2016:

"Ipsos MORI’s final poll before the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union shows a tight race. The poll reveals among those most likely to vote and who say the result is important to them 52% will choose Remain while 48% will choose Leave (excluding the undecideds).

One week ago we saw leave ahead by 53% to 47%. Based on likely voters only (not on those who say the result is important as well), the equivalent figure in this poll is 49% leave 51% remain. And there is still scope for further shifts: 12% say they may change their mind before going to the polling station. There is little difference when it comes to voting stance however. Nine in ten (88%) Remain voters say they have definitely decided (11% may change their mind) compared with 85% of Leave voters (14% who may change their mind)."

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-eu-referendum-prediction-poll


Using the data from the last pre-referendum poll delivered by IpsosMORi in which 52% selected 'Remain' and 48% 'leave', the confidence interval (based on a 95% confidence interval), assuming a representative sample (which I would expect), is roughly +/-2.5% for both recorded scores. Thus, the estimated scores would be:
  • Remain - 49.5% to 54.5%
  • Leave - 45.5% and 50.5%
A clear overlap. They were only 1.5% out even accounting for the '12% may change their mind' and those 'undecided' were exculded.

Anyone know why Brexiters see 'beating the pollsters' as some kind of triumph? I don't get it.
 
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