COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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maintains my opinion that we are in week 6 or 7 of the second wave in Manchester. My honest opinion is that 25 to 40 percent of Mancunians have had it. Those on the front line like in the nhs or using public transport will be higher. My daughter said in her halls in Liverpool about 80 percent have had it and barely anyone now.

in my opinion we are gettting towards the latter stages of this? 3/4 more months?
tend to agree, i think about a third on our road have had it.
 
What’s people’s opinion’s on what tier we will be in GM when we come out of lockdown? Seems we are doing well now and the R value is below 1 so I would hope tier 2 .
 
What’s people’s opinion’s on what tier we will be in GM when we come out of lockdown? Seems we are doing well now and the R value is below 1 so I would hope tier 2 .

does that mean pubs can open past ten?
 
And the actual number today usually cited - as it is often the highest of the two - the all settings deaths - is 341.

It does fall sometimes when cases are outside the time limit. But either way what really matters is that the rise in deaths is slowing . It will go up for a while yet as sadly this is always the last thing to fall as it is the final link in the chain. But there are reasons to be optimistic even here.
does that mean pubs can open past ten?
Pubs couldn’t open past 10 even in Tier 1
 
We are in the NW in I think a similar position to London in May.

They got wave 1 first and came out of it when we were still not yet done as there is a fairly set period of peak and fall. But they ended the restrictions nationally because London was getting better and they needed the economy back.

As a result when wave 2 arrived we were a little ahead of the curve as we started from a less suppressed place than the areas hit hardest in the first wave.

So we started to climb in August and had weeks ahead of the rest (it was going to take longer to peak as we were coming out of Summer and that changes the momentum of a pandemic's ability to spread).

Waves have a natural life and the NW is likely to be ahead of the rest in coming out of this second one because of these factors. But the south has largely been protected by coming out of the first wave at a low enough level to buy extra time as the seasons changed. Probably also starting from a base where many had had it already in wave one maximising the tipping point where cases accelerate and delaying things a bit until now.
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The momentum is clearly shifting with the regions but what happens next is going to depend on what the government do. Will they make regional decisions on easing the lockdown as they said they would come early December.

Or - if by then London and the south is where the NW was in September will they keep lockdown going for all?

Christmas is going to be the big deal as can you see them letting the north have one whilst restricting London more if rates are where the NW was a month or so ago?

Pandemics don't do fairness. They just follow the rules of science. Yet governments can often take decisions that are designed to please the public as opposed to what science strictly requires them to do.

So its anybody's guess where we will be 4 weeks from now.
 
There have been campaigns in the past due to the increased flu cases at Christmas. Similar with meningitis for new university students.

There are weekly figures published every year for flu which back it up.
Show me a year where week 52 was worse than week 51 or week 1 of the following year. It has never happened in the UK or US - EVER.
Cases start to ramp up in October then hit accelerator in November and December and reach the peak about the 3rd week in January before declining. But every time week 52 is a temporary 10%-20% drop.
Why will Covid-19 be any different?
 
Another set of studies from Dr John that confirms that Zinc reduces levels of Interlukin-6 and reduces the incidence of Cykotine storm.
 
Perhaps I should be on SAGE?
Just Echinacea (with it's antival properties) to go on my list of supplements proved to help protect you against Covid-19 to some degree
 
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