COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[andyhinch]

I agree about booking information having something added.

I think it would need more than a digital certificate, unless they set it up like the US ESTA form and make it mandatory.

I assume that when they come to mass vaccinations, there will be a paper copy handed out (which will have two stamps on it), and maybe a central database that it can be downloaded from - a lot of data and accuracy needed for the latter though.

Data and accuracy are this government’s strength.

 

[hammocity]

I agree about booking information having something added.

I think it would need more than a digital certificate, unless they set it up like the US ESTA form and make it mandatory.

I assume that when they come to mass vaccinations, there will be a paper copy handed out (which will have two stamps on it), and maybe a central database that it can be downloaded from - a lot of data and accuracy needed for the latter though.

Good points, think it will be necessary to implement to get the whole travel industry going plus the knock on Aviation industry of which the U.K. is very much involved, Rolls Royce with all its suppliers and support industries.

 

[trumpton]

Before checking in online most Airlines ask for pre departure information, passport details, DOB, country of origin, etc. Surely this could be used to add in a section for the Covid vaccine. All dependent on how the government deals with vaccine information, a digital certificate shouldn't be too difficult to process.

If the Oxford vaccine results, or any other for that matter, come out much lower at say 60% will some countries refuse entry based on the variant of jab you have received?

On a side note, I'm currently trying to persuade my 82 year old mother to take a vaccine when offered. She refuses the flu jab every year so I've got my work cut out.

 

[artfuldodger]

If the Oxford vaccine results, or any other for that matter, come out much lower at say 60% will some countries refuse entry based on the variant of jab you have received?

On a side note, I'm currently trying to persuade my 82 year old mother to take a vaccine when offered. She refuses the flu jab every year so I've got my work cut out.

Now that is quite worrying. I’d assumed almost all over 80s would sign up as their odds are so poor if they get it.

 

[inchy14]

Granted they should be listened to and some are the experts in their field.
However, some of the work done by SAGE has been modelling. Some of their models have been proved to widely incorrect.
And don’t get me started on the ‘behavioural’ scientists, a misnomer if ever there was one.

Some of the modelling was based on findings on Wikipedia ffs.... granted this was at the beginning but still...

 

[M18CTID]

No problem, I couldn’t understand why I got such a reaction.

I was confused too. You’re the last person I would’ve had down as a “plandemic” conspiracy theorist, given that you’ve followed the rules and guidelines from the off and was restricting your contact with others as far back as before the League Cup Final.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital data has updated to yesterday.

Patients fall again from 13, 767 to 13, 587, Last Tuesday it was 13, 565 - a rise in the week of just 22.

For comparison here are the confirmed Covid patients added Tuesday to Tuesday in England for the preceding weeks back to the last week there was a rise below this (which was the end of August): -

17 - 24 Nov (Up 22)

10 - 17 Nov (Up 2259)

03 - 10 Nov (Up 1613)

27 Oct - 03 Nov (Up 2206)

20 - 27 Oct (Up 2343)

13 - 20 Oct (Up 1923)

06 - 13 Oct (Up 1122)

30 Sep - 06 Oct (Up 902)

23 - 30 Sep (Up 577)

16 - 23 Sep (Up 487)

09 - 16 Sep (Up 355)

02 - 09 Sep (Up 114)

 

[Ric]

Tidied this up now, but let's not allow this thread to get derailed by potentially dangerous conspiracy theories/mistruths about vaccines. There is a separate thread for that here: https://forums.bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk/threads/covid-personal-views.347414/. Thanks.

 

[Healdplace]

Regional hospital data:


PATIENTS /// VENTILATOR BEDS

London 1534 down to 1489 /// 252 up to 253

Midlands 3150 down to 3142 ///312 up to 313

NE/Yorks 3302 down to 3118 /// 244 up to 247


NW was not quite so good as the only area to increase, but not by much - patients up from 2729 to 2746 - so still well down in numbers on the two regions above 3000. And still in the NW below the peak numbers in the Spring wave. 3013 were in the NW 7 days ago - a fall of 267 week to week.

And ventilators fell again from 234 to 229 - even further behind the three regions above all now clearly having more very sick patients in hospital than the NW which will sadly translate into more deaths there than in the NW in coming weeks.

 

[brian the blue]

Am I right in thinking that they calculate the percentage effectiveness based simply on how many positive cases there are in people who were given the vaccine?

Is there a way of actually testing whether any of the people who had the vaccine had received protection from infection because of it?

Could it simply not just be that of the people given the vaccine, only those who actually came into contact with the virus contracted it? And the rest simply never came into contact with it? Meaning it's nowhere near as effective as we think? The number of participants is hardly a lot given how high your chances are of catching this virus.

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

If you don't get the prick, consider yourself a right prick.

I might get this done on a T-shirt or charge Boris £20m for the slogan?

There's something quite satisfying about the word prick, no?

Don't hear it much these days, when I hear or say it, I find myself transported to a Goodfellas movie or a NYC cabbie dishing it out.

 

[kaz7]

I see SAGE doomists are on the tv again.
Bunch of liars, cheats and robbers stealing our freedom and way of life.

Ffs

 

[hammocity]

If the Oxford vaccine results, or any other for that matter, come out much lower at say 60% will some countries refuse entry based on the variant of jab you have received?

On a side note, I'm currently trying to persuade my 82 year old mother to take a vaccine when offered. She refuses the flu jab every year so I've got my work cut out.

Show your mum some images of people dying with Covid, that should do the trick. However I know some people will refuse to budge for varying reasons. My mum passed away with a lung disease nearly two years ago, she was in hospital with Pulmonary fibrosis and after seeing all her family on the Saturday I'm convinced she removed her oxygen line as she hated what she had become, 83 and almost house bound as opposed to two years previous line dancing, gym and ladies that lunch, at your mum's age she has to have the desire to keep going.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Am I right in thinking that they calculate the percentage effectiveness based simply on how many positive cases there are in people who were given the vaccine?

Is there a way of actually testing whether any of the people who had the vaccine had received protection from infection because of it?

Could it simply not just be that of the people given the vaccine, only those who actually came into contact with the virus contracted it? And the rest simply never came into contact with it? Meaning it's nowhere near as effective as we think? The number of participants is hardly a lot given how high your chances are of catching this virus.

The % effectiveness is reported as a point estimate eg 70%.

What that means is that if 100 people on the placebo arm got covid, 30 on the active did. So if 100 people would get the disease unvaccinated, 70 of those would have been saved by the vaccine, hence 70% effective.

You're absolutely right that you can't actually give a precise estimate with such relatively small numbers. A confidence interval, calculated statistically is used. For the oxford jab, the confidence interval is 54% - 80%, the estimate of the real efficacy. This means we can be 95% sure the true efficacy is in the range 54-80%. Even a 54% effective vaccine is more than good enough to be worthwhile, so we can be near certain this is sufficiently effective. We can't be certain what the exact figure is.

Does that help?

 

[somapop]

If you don't get the prick, consider yourself a right prick.

I might get this done on a T-shirt or charge Boris £20m for the slogan?

There's something quite satisfying about the word prick, no?

Don't hear it much these days, when I hear or say it, I find myself transported to a Goodfellas movie or a NYC cabbie dishing it out.

Like the idea mate.
Might need a dash of editing on the copy...bit of a mouthful.
I'll help and we'll split the £20 million,

 

[kippax4ever]

If you don't get the prick, consider yourself a right prick.

I might get this done on a T-shirt or charge Boris £20m for the slogan?

There's something quite satisfying about the word prick, no?

Don't hear it much these days, when I hear or say it, I find myself transported to a Goodfellas movie or a NYC cabbie dishing it out.

You are dominic Cummings & I claim my 5 shillings..

 

[andyhinch]

Like the idea mate.
Might need a dash of editing on the copy...bit of a mouthful.
I'll help and we'll split the £20 million,

I’ve got friends in government, I’ll take this idea, make it worse and charge £50 mil. I think that’s how it works ;-)

 

[brian the blue]

The % effectiveness is reported as a point estimate eg 70%.

What that means is that if 100 people on the placebo arm got covid, 30 on the active did. So if 100 people would get the disease unvaccinated, 70 of those would have been saved by the vaccine, hence 70% effective.

You're absolutely right that you can't actually give a precise estimate with such relatively small numbers. A confidence interval, calculated statistically is used. For the oxford jab, the confidence interval is 54% - 80%, the estimate of the real efficacy. This means we can be 95% sure the true efficacy is in the range 54-80%. Even a 54% effective vaccine is more than good enough to be worthwhile, so we can be near certain this is sufficiently effective. We can't be certain what the exact figure is.

Does that help?

Ah okay cheers.

Yeah I'm clueless about all this so was wondering if I was massively missing the point in my thinking.

My mum who's in her late 50's has signed up to a vaccine trial, whilst that's great, im not entirely sure she'd be of any value for testing its effectiveness as if she was actually given the vaccine, she'd only be going on her daily walk for an hour and doing her weekly food shop in the supermarket. Suppose my thinking is if a load of people who were given the vaccine lived their lives like this throughout the trial, it's not really going to tell anyone anything about the vaccine as they will most likely never come into contact with the virus.

 

[somapop]

I’ve got friends in government, I’ll take this idea, make it worse and charge £50 mil. I think that’s how it works ;-)

Ok...we'll do a threeway (employs Kenneth Williams GIF) with you and Tolm.
That's already £16.6 million each up from £10 million five mins ago.

I know someone in Spain...nowt to with anything 'sciencey' or medical, but he'll add another £40 million (coz stuff) so we're up to £90 million total which is now £22.5 million each.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Ah okay cheers.

Yeah I'm clueless about all this so was wondering if I was massively missing the point in my thinking.

My mum who's in her late 50's has signed up to a vaccine trial, whilst that's great, im not entirely sure she'd be of any value for testing its effectiveness as if she was actually given the vaccine, she'd only be going on her daily walk for an hour and doing her weekly food shop in the supermarket. Suppose my thinking is if a load of people who were given the vaccine lived their lives like this throughout the trial, it's not really going to tell anyone anything about the vaccine as they will most likely never come into contact with the virus.

That's absolutely correct - *but*

1. Enough do come into contact to give a statistically meaningful measure of effectiveness and

2. You need tens of thousands vaccinated to assess the safety of the jab, so those who don't come into contact still give useful data