COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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kaz7 said:
Yes they have , dont be silly , you might not like it but that is your problem, a new virus has to be learnt about , it has behaved differently than other coronavirus , actual data takes time to come through , the scientist were shouting for another proper lockdown in september, they were ignored , we would be in a better place if they had their way
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I agree Kaz. That was a mistake. But ironically it might actually help the NW over Christmas. As we got caught first after being the least suppressed as autumn arrived. So we have weeks head start on numbers rising, peaking and starting to fall as all waves tend to do.

London and the South are just starting to see things tick up and still being protected from any harsh measures.

The Christmas free for all will inevitably increase numbers everywhere but that impact my well be least in the NW and most in places like the south.

It is too early to be sure but we may have already peaked the pandemic for now and the cavalry could well arrive in time to stop us having another big wave here.

That terrible fate might well lie further south in the new year.
 
worsleyweb said:
ok I believe you.
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My main issues have been:

We were 1 month too late to lockdown - Boris was too busy pissing around and didn't take the warnings seriously enough. That month could have saved a lot of lives.
We didn't close the airports and had people swanning in from all over the world, including China. That should have been done straight away.
They let a big racing event and Liverpool v A Madrid go ahead, absolutely insane decision, again which cost lives.

We are one of the leading countries in the world yet the track & trace has been piss poor all the way through.
They have heeded the warnings from the scientists too much and unfairly treated the North like the tories always do.
Personally I would have applied a blanket lockdown for 2-3 months at the start, like Australia implemented - and they were successful.

I admit this is unprecedented and there is no template for a pandemic, that aside the government have made horrific errors of judgement.
 
England hospital deaths 338 - up from 326 last week. with 64 from NW.

For first time London and South East with 73 deaths between them had more.
 
Last two days the week on week England hospital death rise has been just 5 and 12. Hopeful signs of a slowing that would inevitably be a week or two after cases started to drop.
 
Healdplace said:
Only that GM is a community with movement cross borders very common day and night and whilst Trafford and Stockport very likely qualify for Tier 2 not 3 - possibly even Salford on current numbers - that is the problem with creating an oasis of lower measures surrounded by others who are not.

Wigan was not in the original GM restrictions and ended up paying a huge price as you cannot isolate one borough if those around it are on tighter restrictions. It just naturally exports the pandemic to there.

Trafford was offered immunity from the restrictions in August and chose to stay in them - wisely imo. Stockport briefly left but ended up having to return as numbers rose.

You only need to look at my nightly reports to see who gained and who lost now from that choice.

Stockport was the best performer in GM across the pandemic. But Trafford has overtaken it. And I think that decision to stay in the restrictions when they could have left is a large part of why.
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It needs to be remembered that cases and the R rate are not the only reason why somewhere may find itself in a particular tier.

Local NHS capacity differs across the country and so just because a case number is rising in one place doesn't mean it's the worst thing in the world. London has a much larger population and so more capacity. Cases can be afforded to be higher there whereas smaller towns with lower capacity can't.

Not justifying anything on the government but there is more to decision making than a graph that normalises a population of 9 million (London) vs a population of 500k (Manchester).
 
inbetween said:
It needs to be remembered that cases and the R rate are not the only reason why somewhere may find itself in a particular tier.

Local NHS capacity differs across the country and so just because a case number is rising in one place doesn't mean it's the worst thing in the world. London has a much larger population and so more capacity. Cases can be afforded to be higher there whereas smaller towns with lower capacity can't.

Not justifying anything on the government but there is more to decision making than a graph that normalises a population of 9 million (London) vs a population of 500k (Manchester).
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No issue there as I said the same yesterday in here.

But it is likely that this is less of a factor when deciding between boroughs in a relatively small metro county where patients can and do regularly go to hospitals not in their own borough.

But it will have been a factor in deciding tier 2 or 3 undoubtedly.

However, what is also true is that NW Covid patients have fallen to their lowest levels in over a month in the past week.
 
Northern Ireland data

Deaths 12

8 F / 4 M 3 in care homes 9 in hospital Ages 40 - 59 (1), 60 - 79 (4) 80 + (7)

Cases 391 at 13.6% positive.

7 day total cases 2482.

142 Care home outbreaks - up 3.

Patients 425 - down 17

Ventilators 30 (same)
 
N Ireland 3 wks ago v 2 wks v last wk v today

Deaths 8 v 11 v 12 v 12 today

Cases 595 v 507 v 369 v 391 today (may still be a few add ons from the 'mislaid' cases earlier this week but this seems to be not much of a factor now thankfully

7 day total cases 4160 v 3880 v 3230 v 2482 today

Patients 407 v 443 v 447 v 425 today

Ventilated 39 v 34 v 28 v 30 today
 
England 338 hospital deaths in detail:

Ages 20 - 39 (3), 40 - 59 (16), 60 - 79 (132) and 80 + (187)

Notice again that the over 80s percentage is falling and more and more of the slowing deaths are younger.

This is a trend I have not seen the media mentioning but is clearly important if it stays true. Possibly due to care home outbreak reducing likely to have many over 80s deaths


Areas of deaths NW 64, Midlands 79, NE/Yorks 73, South East 38, London 35.
 
Healdplace said:
At my age old hen would be more appropriate I suspect.

But please don't worry. I don't think anyone (other than those I have conversed with by PM) realised for much of the time either until I mentioned it by accident when backing Kaz up over something a week or two ago.

I said nothing before then as it was not relevant.
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Just my little sexist joke, think your info is great, you do the hard yards for the rest of us to just log in and get the appropriate updates, really useful for us that find it difficult to trawl through endless facts and figures, cheers.
 
England 3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v today with NW deaths and % of total

218 / 63 NW v 246 / 54 NW v 326 / 59 v 338 / 64 today

29% v 22% v 18% v 19% today. The fall in NW deaths may be bottoming out. But that is inevitable as it is never going to be zero.
 
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