COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Healdplace said:
I do wonder why their fire break was such a disaster and hope them going this far backwards is not a sign of a thurd wave for the rest of the UK.
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This is my big concern too. How have things became *so* bad in Wales in comparison to for example Scotland or the North West in the present time? I'm not sure society in Cardiff or Swansea is that much different from Glasgow or Manchester, so it begs the question why things have got so out of hand in Wales since their firebreak.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
This is my big concern too. How have things became *so* bad in Wales in comparison to for example Scotland or the North West in the present time? I'm not sure society in Cardiff or Swansea is that much different from Glasgow or Manchester, so it begs the question why things have got so out of hand in Wales since their firebreak.
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Wales have had the worst pandemic of the 4 home nations. I have mentioned this a few times over past months.

Pro rata their death rate has always been too high for its population.

I suspect there are two possible reasons.

A higher elderly population with plenty from England retiring to North Wales which was for a time an unexpected hot spot area of the first wave.

And potential lung problems that may make Covid worse on the ex miners living in the valleys to the south. Which was one of the biggest UK areas likely to have this legacy of ex miners.

But these are just guesses.

Either way it is a concern. Really they need full lockdown to Christmas there on these numbers.
 
Healdplace said:
Wales have had the worst pandemic of the 4 home nations. I have mentioned this a few times over past months.

Pro rata their death rate has always been too high for its population.

I suspect there are two possible reasons.

A higher elderly population with plenty from England retiring to North Wales which was for a time an unexpected hot spot area of the first wave.

And potential lung problems that may make Covid worse on the ex miners living in the valleys to the south. Which was one of the biggest UK areas likely to have this legacy.

But these are just guesses.
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Very fair and logical suggestions, but it doesn't perhaps explain the high and rising case rate when everywhere else seems to be either slowly decreasing or plateuing. It's quite a quick escalation there. It begs the question if this will be a short lived respite for other areas of the UK and we will all follow Wales eventually or if they're getting something inherently wrong which other places aren't. Strange but tragic situation.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
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The death numbers for lower ages have been rising of late notably

To a degree that is bound to happen as numbers rise but the age shift seems more than that to me.

Today in England there were also 2 aged 20 - 39 and 23 aged 40 - 59. As well as the majority of 140 aged 60 - 79 and 206 aged 80 plus. The 60 - 79 ages have also risen more in ratio with the 80 - group.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
it does it also stops at

9. All the over 50s

there isnt currently a plan for healthy under 50s on this roll out of the vaccine and my view is by the time the older and vulnerable groups have had it , there won’t be.
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As you say, currently, but I reckon that that will change. It makes sense to prioritise now, but given how frequently Britons travel abroad and how widely, it will be an international benefit to vaccinate younger people, too. Similarly, as the number of cases in the U.K. drops, attention will inevitably turn to ‘long Covid’ and its lasting effects, so it will make even more sense to extend the roll out, and there will be demand.
 
Other England hospital data:

Other regions than the 92 NW.

100 from the Midlands and 61 from NE and Yorkshire.


Highest number of deaths in the NW - 43 in East Lancashire hospital trust, 18 in Pennine and 15 in Manchester.
 
Northern Ireland data:

4 deaths

2 M / 2 F all over 80. 3 in hospital 1 in care home.

416 cases at 14.1 %

435 Patients

29 Ventilated.
 
There seems to have been a rise in cases from all three nations today. Though Wales much the worst.

If that translates to England as well we might have a bit of a disappointing number later.
 
everythingchangesbutblue said:
Great news about the vaccine.

I have one fear about this Pfizer jab and that is that a portion of it will go to the rich/elite and their families. Hopefully just my paranoia but i don't want Rupert or Eugenie getting it before the vulnerable and those who look after them.
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If people are vulnerable or front line they should be eligible no matter their socio-economic status.
ayrshire_blue said:
Very fair and logical suggestions, but it doesn't perhaps explain the high and rising case rate when everywhere else seems to be either slowly decreasing or plateuing. It's quite a quick escalation there. It begs the question if this will be a short lived respite for other areas of the UK and we will all follow Wales eventually or if they're getting something inherently wrong which other places aren't. Strange but tragic situation.
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The situation in Wales varies considerably from area to area. The case rates in most of North, Mid and West Wales are pretty low, except for the more industrialised areas (i.e. Wrexham and Flintshire).

By far the highest rates are in the former coalfield areas of South Wales: e.g. Merthyr, Torfaen, Blaenau Gwent.

It's to do with poverty, urban density, the types of jobs people do and the underlying health of the population, all of which are more adverse in the Valleys.
 
N Ireland 3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v today:

Deaths 8 v 11 v 7 v 4 today (and one of those was an old catch up)

Cases 791 v 518 v 535 v 416 today - so still a fall on last week though a little up by recent standards

7 day rolling total 4442 v 3535 v 2421 v 2601 today - shows there has been a slight rise here in recent days

Patients 441 v 452 v 456 v 435 today - starting to fall which is good if it cotinues

Ventilated 35 v 37 v 32 v 29 today.

Care Home outbreaks today stay at 128 - down from 140 last week.
 
Healdplace said:
Wales have had the worst pandemic of the 4 home nations. I have mentioned this a few times over past months.


Either way it is a concern. Really they need full lockdown to Christmas there on these numbers.
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Why should businesses in areas like Conwy (30 cases per 100,000, based on the most recent 7 day average) or Gwynedd (34/100K) suffer a full lockdown?

These places are 3.5-4 hours away from the high disease intensity areas of South Wales.
 
NeilYoungIsBack said:
If people are vulnerable or front line they should be eligible no matter their socio-economic status.


The situation in Wales varies considerably from area to area. The case rates in most of North, Mid and West Wales are pretty low, except for the more industrialised areas (i.e. Wrexham and Flintshire).

By far the highest rates are in the former coalfield areas of South Wales: e.g. Merthyr, Torfaen, Blaenau Gwent.

It's to do with poverty, urban density, the types of jobs people do and the underlying health of the population, all of which are more adverse in the Valleys.
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Fair enough, thank you. Perhaps I'm a bit under informed when it comes to the makeup of the population in terms of density/poverty, I wouldn't have thought these areas in the valley's would be so significantly different from elsewhere in the UK to be so different in terms of case numbers but every day's a school day as they say.
 
England hospital deaths by date:

1 Dec adds 55 = 55 after 1 day, (Last wk 56 = 56 total)

30 Nov adds 139 = 176 after 2 days (Last wk 141 = 195 total)

29 Nov adds 65 = 258 after 3 days (Last wk 63 = 264 total)

28 Nov adds 44 = 267 after 4 days (Last wk 43 = 215 total)

27 Nov adds 33 = 256 after 5 days (Last wk 25 = 268 total)

Again no records, signs of levelling off 2 days add less than last wk and the others not much more and only 1 of the 5 days has more deaths than the equivalent day 7 days ago). Promising signs.

Other add ons include 26 Nov added 15 (now 272) and 25 Nov which added 9 and now total 305 - meaning we have four dates now with over 300 deaths ascribed to that date.

Sadly the highest of these - 18 Nov - adds 1 to become the new England second wave peak of 317.

Two of the deaths came from over a month ago so might be excluded. Most notably one dates back to before the peak of the first wave on 7 April. No idea of the story behind why that took nearly 8 months to add.
 
So total deaths today with the England out of hospital to add is 465. This is up on last week but NOT the highest. It is way higher than we all want to see so let us hope no more rises until the vaccine hopefully saves the day.

3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v today: 478 v 388 v 445 v 465 today Shows we have been rising lately but it has been higher 3 weeks ago.

These mid week days are always hard to judge from as they always have more catch up and are the highest ones.
 
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