Another new Brexit thread

[bluethrunthru]

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Don't give up your day job..

Not for a couple more years until the pension is in the bag!

 

[blueish swede]

For those that can spend a few mins and deploy objectivity - I think that this offers a fairly good description of how things have operated and are reshaping now in the light of Covid and Brexit:

‘More Europe’ after Brexit | National Review

It brings out the accuracy of the German and French past controls and the current dynamics - and the previous role - always eventually futile - of the UK. It comments well on the emerging tensions between France and Germany

It provides helpful explanation of how the other 'contributors' are forced to reluctantly tag along. It is easy to understand why the debtors follow the lines - and also explains the exceptions e.g. Poland and Hungary. Surely, one has to feel massive sympathy for Holland, Sweden, Denmark and Austria?

Importantly also, there is fleeting reference to one of the key reasons that the UK, for its long-tern prosperity, absolutely must leave the EU and will benefit from a clean Brexit - I wonder how many of the die-hards would be able to swallow and accept the obvious truth. In this regard - for those willing to analyse - it becomes quite obvious what Macron's range of views are towards the terms the UK should leave on and also Merkel's - along with Holland, Sweden, Denmark and Austria - total preference for the UK to remain.

And for the couple of posters that bang on about opt-outs and vetoes there is some obvious explanation of why they will not be even a medium-term protection

There are also a couple of other gems to be considered as a result of what can be discerned for those with objectivity - which I will come back to rather than make this a longer post. It will be curious (well at least to me) to see the level of genuine analysis

This is probably the truest and most significant point in the article:

"For the previous 40 years, Britain had been a kind of leader of the opposition to the dominant bloc in Europe,
namely France and Germany combined."

It sums up the UKs failure in the EU to a tee.
France and Germany are not natural bed-fellows. Historically they are antagonists. Britain has a much longer tradition of alliance with Germany than France. Fear and desparation drove the French and the Germans together, yet for for 40 years the UK were unable to offer any real leadership in Europe to change the balance and the direction of travel.

Ultimately Britain failed in the EU, but it will fare worse outside.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Ultimately Britain failed in the EU, but it will fare worse outside.

We’re taking back control, mate.

 

[smudgedj]

This is probably the truest and most significant point in the article:

"For the previous 40 years, Britain had been a kind of leader of the opposition to the dominant bloc in Europe,
namely France and Germany combined."

It sums up the UKs failure in the EU to a tee.
France and Germany are not natural bed-fellows. Historically they are antagonists. Britain has a much longer tradition off alliance with Germany than France. Fear and desparation drove the French and the Germans together, yet for for 40 years the UK were unable to offer any real leadership in Europe to change the balance and the direction of travel.

Ultimately Britain failed in the EU, but it will fare worse outside.

Yeah we know

Britain is too small, too weak and too stupid to exercise the same level of independence as say Suriname, Barbados or Panama.

 

[Metal Biker]

This is probably the truest and most significant point in the article:

"For the previous 40 years, Britain had been a kind of leader of the opposition to the dominant bloc in Europe,
namely France and Germany combined."

It sums up the UKs failure in the EU to a tee.
France and Germany are not natural bed-fellows. Historically they are antagonists. Britain has a much longer tradition of alliance with Germany than France. Fear and desparation drove the French and the Germans together, yet for for 40 years the UK were unable to offer any real leadership in Europe to change the balance and the direction of travel.

Ultimately Britain failed in the EU, but it will fare worse outside.

The EU needed Britain to be the voice of reason and logic, lest it fall under the dominance of France and Germany, and they called us "difficult" for it?

I note the article does little to talk about the future of the EU now it won't have Britain's influence as the leader of the opposition, an influence which all great democracies need. Who is ready to take up that mantle, I wonder? Italy? Spain? Sweden?

How will the EU fare without the UK?

 

[ganganvince]

 

[Ban-jani]

This is probably the truest and most significant point in the article:

"For the previous 40 years, Britain had been a kind of leader of the opposition to the dominant bloc in Europe,
namely France and Germany combined."

It sums up the UKs failure in the EU to a tee.
France and Germany are not natural bed-fellows. Historically they are antagonists. Britain has a much longer tradition of alliance with Germany than France. Fear and desparation drove the French and the Germans together, yet for for 40 years the UK were unable to offer any real leadership in Europe to change the balance and the direction of travel.

Ultimately Britain failed in the EU, but it will fare worse outside.

I think this is a false view of history if I’m honest and misses the key events as to why Britain and France allied against Germany and what happened many years later in the EU.

The unification of the German state, creating a new Western European superpower and Bismarck’s investment in a navy, that could rival Britain, is what forced Britain and France into becoming allied. It was a totally natural thing to do and in the end proven correct.

The EU was created to stop France and Germany warring, the very nature of the early EU was done for this purpose. That’s why it got so much more within the political elite and public support and still does. The Germans and the French have always, and quite rightly, viewed this as peace.

The UK didn’t fail, it was always sceptical and there because it didn’t wish to be left behind. It’s also pretty hard to be a leader when the two original big players wanted more and more Europe and Britain didn’t.

Ultimately it’s a very bad decision for our economy and it’s going to be the antithesis to a shot in the arm, more so a kick in the bollocks, but I do feel, similarly to the split between Scotland and England now, that the English would have left the EU in one way or another at some point, it was never a happy marriage.

 

[blueish swede]

Not if you listened to Radio 5 live this morning. Haulier saying that the Government are clueless. He doesn't know on the 7th December whether he will need a permit to operate in the Eu. His company were advised to apply for permits on the 01st November. 36,000 applications were received for 2000 permits. Since then crickets.

He doesn't know if he will need a permit & he doesn't know if he's got a permit.But somehow he's supposed to reassure his customers that he will still be able to import the raw materials needed for manufacture and then export the finished article.

Should he book ferries etc? Time schedule his drivers ?

Driving licences?

 

[bluethrunthru]

Yeah we know

Britain is too small, too weak and too stupid to exercise the same level of independence as say Suriname, Barbados or Panama.

none of Suriname, Barbados nor Panama are deluding themselves they are a world power.

 

[blueinsa]

none of Suriname, Barbados nor Panama are deluding themselves they are a world power.

Its a good job we are then isn't it.

No amount of pretending or wishing we weren't will change that fact.

 

[blueinsa]

Looking increasingly likely that this will now involve Johnson having a sit down with Macron and Merkel to try and sort it out.

The negotiators can do no more.

 

[mat]

The UK is the angry shortarse at the bar who's always looking for a fight. The rest of the world takes the piss out of the raging dwarf and knows they can put their hand on his head to stop the annoying **** swinging at them.

Newsflash:

The Empire ended long ago. Accept who we are in the world and act accordingly.

We could follow a social democratic model of scandanavia or become an Atlantic version of Indian inequality. I know which ones the Tories want us to be and so no deal is favourable to put us plebs in our place.

 

[blueparrot]

Looking increasingly likely that this will now involve Johnson having a sit down with Macron and Merkel to try and sort it out.

The negotiators can do no more.

Jesus ,whatever outcome anyone wants don’t hold out much hope of Johnson coming out of that knowing what details he’s ageed to. Much like his W.A.

 

[blueinsa]

Jesus ,whatever outcome anyone wants don’t hold out much hope of Johnson coming out of that knowing what details he’s ageed to. Much like his W.A.

Yes it is a bit of a worry.

Can we send his spitting image across instead?

 

[Ban-jani]

The UK is the angry shortarse at the bar who's always looking for a fight. The rest of the world takes the piss out of the raging dwarf and knows they can put their hand on his head to stop the annoying **** swinging at them.

Newsflash:

The Empire ended long ago. Accept who we are in the world and act accordingly.

We could follow a social democratic model of scandanavia or become an Atlantic version of Indian inequality. I know which ones the Tories want us to be and so no deal is favourable to put us plebs in our place.

I mean this in the nicest way possible, are you smoking drugs?

 

[blueinsa]

The UK is the angry shortarse at the bar who's always looking for a fight. The rest of the world takes the piss out of the raging dwarf and knows they can put their hand on his head to stop the annoying **** swinging at them.

Says one of our resident Palestinian flag wavers.

Forgive me for not taking you too seriously ;-)

 

[BobKowalski]

Looking increasingly likely that this will now involve Johnson having a sit down with Macron and Merkel to try and sort it out.

The negotiators can do no more.

That’s been true for the last month or so. Like the NI issue in the WA, this needs a political solution.

Last time it was Varadkar, this time it‘s Macron with Merkel hosting given Germany have the presidency.

Will Johnson hang tough in a face to face meet?

Pass the popcorn.

 

[Metal Biker]

The UK is the angry shortarse at the bar who's always looking for a fight. The rest of the world takes the piss out of the raging dwarf and knows they can put their hand on his head to stop the annoying **** swinging at them.

Newsflash:

The Empire ended long ago. Accept who we are in the world and act accordingly.

We could follow a social democratic model of scandanavia or become an Atlantic version of Indian inequality. I know which ones the Tories want us to be and so no deal is favourable to put us plebs in our place.

What the hell does any of that have to do with being an EU member?

Two of those Scandinavian nations aren't even members of the EU!

 

[Len Rum]

Difficult to interpret this latest development other than BloJo doesn't want no deal at the moment and the ERG (wanting and having tasted no deal ) will be sh1tting themselves.
Leaders normally go across to these final meetings for a symbolic sign off when everything has been agreed upon up front .
Unless Barnier and Frost and their respective teams have agreed a deal behind the scenes and kept it secret ( unlikely as Brussels leaks like a sieve) then IMO there is no way BoJo is going to go over there and negotiate a deal where there is still a lot of detail to be resolved.
A lot may depend if the meeting is between BoJo and UVDL and/or the Council ( remember Mavis got shredded bythe Council).
Maybe they will both compromise at the top level ( EU on fish and UK on LPF and governance?) giving the negotiators a few days to sort out the details.
Still think it's 50/50 ( as I have done for a while now).