COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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03 March 2002 said:
Tin foil hat time.

I reckon the government have perused a 'soft' herd immunity approach since the start. The lack of conviction in their leadership, leaving everything vague and ambiguous and perceived slowness to react/ignoring scientific advice simply aren't the characteristics of 'successful' people.
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They are the characteristics of people like Boris Johnson though tbf
 
Del_Bosque said:
Seems like they are rolling out the general public over 80’s vaccinations sooner than we thought?

This early it was supposed to be care home residents and health and social workers only wasn’t it?
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They changed tack a little given the only vaccine in town has problems being taken to care homes. Though they are finding ways.
 
England hospital data going up relentlessly now again too.

Over last two days 15, 053 to 15, 031 to 15, 465 today (7 days ago 13, 457)

Ventilators 1127 to 1159 to 1163 today (7 days ago 1094)
 
Regionally:

LONDON Patients 2330 to 2482 to 2543 - big rises day to day. Was 1787 7 days ago. Were behind all the northern regions a week ago, Overtook the NW two days ago and now ahead of Yorkshire too,

Ventilators 262 - 292 - 291. 7 days ago was 241, The most in the UK are on ventilators here. Double the NW who were far ahead a month ago.

MIDLANDS 3286 - 3097- 3191. 7 days ago was 3103, Ventilators 257 - 251 - 254. 7 days ago was 270.

NE/YORKSHIRE 2483 - 2482 - 2505, 7 days ago was 2526, Ventilators 145 - 144 - 142, 7 days ago was 160.


And NORTH WEST

Patients 2325 - 2322 - 2276 TODAY. 7 days ago was 2218. Patients slowly falling and 1000 below Midlands and over 300 behind London. A month ago NW was where Midlands are now. Well below the first wave peak they briefly surpassed in wave 2 a few weeks ago. Just before the fall started.

Ventilators 161 - 162 - 159 TODAY. 7 days ago was 160. Falling here too and well below the first wave maximum numbers.
 
For Andyhinch

Cheshire East (look away!) Cases 114. First over 100 since watching it for you. Total cases pass 10K at 10, 012.
Pop score rises by 29 to 2606. Easily the most whilst I have been watching for you

Weekly Pop rises from 118 to 134. Highest it has been since watching it for you sadly.

As I have said often. Tier 2 areas very near to tier 3 ones are like magnets to those wanting to go drinking and partying and sidetracking the rules.

They do not work and just export the virus.
 
Healdplace said:
For Andyhinch

Cheshire East (look away!) Cases 114. First over 100 since watching it for you. Total cases pass 10K at 10, 012.
Pop score rises by 29 to 2606. Easily the most whilst I have been watching for you

Weekly Pop rises from 118 to 134. Highest it has been since watching it for you sadly.

As I have said often. Tier 2 areas very near to tier 3 ones are like magnets to those wanting to go drinking and partying and sidetracking the rules.

They do not work and just export the virus.
Click to expand...
Partying? Really though where? In restaurants and pubs serving food?
 
03 March 2002 said:
Tin foil hat time.

I reckon the government have perused a 'soft' herd immunity approach since the start. The lack of conviction in their leadership, leaving everything vague and ambiguous and perceived slowness to react/ignoring scientific advice simply aren't the characteristics of 'successful' people.
Click to expand...

If that’s the case, why are they vaccinating everyone and not doing antibody tests and not using a vaccine on those who have had it? At least in the short term it would be a quicker way to build more immunity and vaccinate those who can catch it.
 
Andy might feel a little better with the news down south in my other requested Kent boroughs.

Dartford 119 cases. Most here since watching too. Up from 71. Total cases 3438.

Pop score up 106 - one of the worst in UK today - taking Dartford into the 3000 club at 3053.

Weekly Pop rises from 493 up to 579. Huge daily rise.


And Medway 268 cases down from 388 - so big fall here. Total cases 10, 150.

Pop score up 96 to 3644,

Weekly Pop rises from 703 to 728.
 
Tonster said:
Partying? Really though where? In restaurants and pubs serving food?
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I think people don’t quite realise that it is perfectly possible that the case numbers rise naturally and not as a result of some sort of recklessness. It always has to be linked to rule breaking/partying/teenagers etc...

what we are seeing is the natural rise and fall of a virus.
London will probably peak soon and dip again in January at the same time as the north will be catching up on the rise again only to fall itself again a bit later on.

repeat over and over until the end of March when spring is here and it will naturally fall again (hopefully aided by vaccinations).

The need to blame rises in cases on people seems to be driven by media and government (and some of the medical profession) to pass blame from themselves.
 
Healdplace said:
For Andyhinch

Cheshire East (look away!) Cases 114. First over 100 since watching it for you. Total cases pass 10K at 10, 012.
Pop score rises by 29 to 2606. Easily the most whilst I have been watching for you

Weekly Pop rises from 118 to 134. Highest it has been since watching it for you sadly.

As I have said often. Tier 2 areas very near to tier 3 ones are like magnets to those wanting to go drinking and partying and sidetracking the rules.

They do not work and just export the virus.
Click to expand...
Im cheshire east.

doesnt look good for staying in T2. Cant see us swapping with MCR either, think we’ll all be T3. :(
 
Hopefully the supply of vaccines won't slow down the mass vaccination roll out. Pzizer say they are on track to deliver the four million doses they are committed to by the year end and Astra Zeneca have said there are four million doses ready for the UK & they can produce 15 million more within days of approval (Telegraph).
 
ctwrd said:
I think people don’t quite realise that it is perfectly possible that the case numbers rise naturally and not as a result of some sort of recklessness. It always has to be linked to rule breaking/partying/teenagers etc...

what we are seeing is the natural rise and fall of a virus.
London will probably peak soon and dip again in January at the same time as the north will be catching up on the rise again only to fall itself again a bit later on.

repeat over and over until the end of March when spring is here and it will naturally fall again (hopefully aided by vaccinations).

The need to blame rises in cases on people seems to be driven by media and government (and some of the medical profession) to pass blame from themselves.
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Great point.
 
Tonster said:
Partying? Really though where? In restaurants and pubs serving food?
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As in going there in a party of people - only one of whom needs to be infected without knowing it.

It is the rule I call out here. Not the people. The tiers are hopeless and act like sieves not shields.
 
Healdplace said:
As noted in my summary above Stockport aside (fairly big rise there) GM fared better than other parts of the NW and it was not the disaster that the near 7000 extra cases today infer,

A rise of just 169 of the 6928 increase in England numbers today.

But there are warning signs as there have been for days.

Coming out of tier 3 as I have been saying here for a while now would not imo help. We are going up by the looks of the last few days. Christmas will expedite that. Tier 3 might mitigate how big that rise gets.

But if those who want it get their wish and come twelfth night we are back where we were in October and two month's full lockdown follows it will not save the lives who will still die over the next few weeks from the impact of those two or three weeks. And it will not help the economy shut down for more long weeks into Spring.

It is a tough ask to stay in tier 3 I know. And its not a certainty it will help. But we are less likely to turn our good position now into a third wave true and proper if we see where we are in early January before jumping into this 'freedom' that might be both ill advised and short lived.

It might make more sense then with the winter nights to come and Christmas over.

Just my opinion obviously and I know why many disagree.
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You seem to think staying in tier 3 is a good idea. It isn't. The unemployment it will unleash in 2021 is horrendous.
It is vital that Covidiots stop being Covidiots over the next few months.
 
It does not ALWAYS have to be about rule breaking. I do not do that. And of course the rises and falls of the regions may happen as was suggested after Christmas Indeed I posted pretty much the same argument yesterday.

But these issues with the tier system have been apparent since August when Wigan became the first clear case of exporting from within a region from the restricted areas to unrestricted areas.

The huge rise in cases there were linked quickly by local taxi drivers saying on the news that they were ferrying loads of people every night from the restricted areas a few miles away into the unrestricted ones in Wigan.

This was late Summer and Wigan would not have escalated so fast on its own. As its natural state was and will be one of the lowest boroughs in GM, It is why it was unrestricted in the first place. Its low numbers throughout the first wave.

All waves are complex but it is not strange to argue that if the opportunity exists to travel and escape restrictions without hassle more and more will do so the longer the restrictions are in place.

The flaw is with the system that encourages it not in the humans who take advantage of loopholes. That is just human nature.
 
Asymptomatic people thought to have 42% less chance of transmitting covid


While in households, asymptomatic people transmitting at a rate of 0.7% compared to 18% for symptomatic

jamanetwork.com

Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2

This systematic review and meta-analysis examines evidence for household transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), disaggregated by several covariates, and compares it with other coronaviruses
jamanetwork.com jamanetwork.com

Literature now hinting that Asymptomatic people are probably not the secret reservoir originally thought
 
ctwrd said:
I think people don’t quite realise that it is perfectly possible that the case numbers rise naturally and not as a result of some sort of recklessness. It always has to be linked to rule breaking/partying/teenagers etc...

what we are seeing is the natural rise and fall of a virus.
London will probably peak soon and dip again in January at the same time as the north will be catching up on the rise again only to fall itself again a bit later on.

repeat over and over until the end of March when spring is here and it will naturally fall again (hopefully aided by vaccinations).

The need to blame rises in cases on people seems to be driven by media and government (and some of the medical profession) to pass blame from themselves.
Click to expand...
Biggest issue in my local area at the moment seems to be transmission in our hospital amongst staff.
 
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