Another new Brexit thread

[blueparrot]

If it was viable we'd have done it. And even if we did it, it would not have been viable (at least not as normally used, where benefits outweigh costs).

Correct if it was viable and better than the deal we’ve agreed we should have done it. As we haven’t then to scrap this deal and walk away would be an admission he has got this wrong. The government will never do that.
The most likely direction of travel over the next decade will be more deals and agreements with the EU, more complicated bureaucracy not less, as issues arise and governments change, similar to the way the Swiss have a whole hotch potch of agreements on agreements.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

If it was viable we'd have done it. And even if we did it, it would not have been viable (at least not as normally used, where benefits outweigh costs).

Check again what I said, then check the deal.

Would that be the LPF that the leavers said we were getting away from? The one that we need to stick to in order to keep our tariff free quota free trading arrangement albeit with added non-tariff barriers? Not much convoluted about that. We will continue to apply EU rules and regulations. Great victory.

No, it wouldn't, as there are aspects of LPF that are amenable, the only thing
that was unacceptable, was the EU wanting ECJ arbitration, which is now going to an independent source. This source can rule against the EU, exactly the same as it can the UK, obviously. All the noise around this indicates that al this won't be necessary.

The UK financial plan for the next 5 years (the one produced by the Treasury) indicates we will be worse off as does every prediction from every credible source. That isn't really subjective its just fact mate.

The Treasury, you may recall, made similar predictions about the immediate damage Brexit would precipitate, they didn't happen. I was going to post
a similar source to @jaseirai, which you've obviously seen, and as you say, for every economic forecast, there is usually another that counters it.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

Correct if it was viable and better than the deal we’ve agreed we should have done it. As we haven’t then to scrap this deal and walk away would be an admission he has got this wrong. The government will never do that.
The most likely direction of travel over the next decade will be more deals and agreements with the EU, more complicated bureaucracy not less, as issues arise and governments change, similar to the way the Swiss have a whole hotch potch of agreements on agreements.

We, and the EU can scrap the deal after 4 years, if either side wishes,
there is a 'Break clause,' I think there's confusion about what was being discussed. The UK deal is not the same as the Swiss or Norwegian arrangement.

 

[Len Rum]

Check again what I said, then check the deal.

No, it wouldn't, as there are aspects of LPF that are amenable, the only thing
that was unacceptable, was the EU wanting ECJ arbitration, which is now going to an independent source. This source can rule against the EU, exactly the same as it can the UK, obviously. All the noise around this indicates that al this won't be necessary.

The Treasury, you may recall, made similar predictions about the immediate damage Brexit would precipitate, they didn't happen. I was going to post
a similar source to @jaseirai, which you've obviously seen, and as you say, for every economic forecast, there is usually another that counters it.

Just to correct you on your facts again mate.
The LPF was a red line which the UK Govt said they could not accept. The UK wanted a simple tariff free deal without strings like Canada. However the UK caved on this major principle but won a concession from the EU in taking it to independent arbitration.
Of course you could paint the Govt's initial negotiating position on the LPF as one they were prepared to concede, but I don't think so - it was a fundamental principle or act of faith that was integral to the Brexit philosophy of being able to 'do our own thing' and not be tied in to common EU/ 'UK' rules ( which let's face it are EU rules because they're the starting point).

 

[Vic]

https://cebr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WELT-2021-final-23.12.pdf

"By 2035, UK GDP in dollars is forecast to be 23% more than that of France, its long-standing rival and neighbour"

Can anyone explain how they come to that conclusion?



I thought not.

 

[Vic]

Interesting, and I have no view of their credibility. Couple of things though, is our GDP not more than France right now - their league tables say it is?
I find it quite interesting comparing their UK growth projections over the next five years with those of the Treasury (they are much greater than the Tr.).
Anyway, you prove your point, for every economic forecast that says X, there is one that says Y.
Lets hope that they are right and the many benefit rather than the few.

In this case, for this forecast there are lots more that would say it's unsubstantiated cobblers.

 

[Vic]

Check again what I said, then check the deal.

No, it wouldn't, as there are aspects of LPF that are amenable, the only thing
that was unacceptable, was the EU wanting ECJ arbitration, which is now going to an independent source. This source can rule against the EU, exactly the same as it can the UK, obviously. All the noise around this indicates that al this won't be necessary.

The Treasury, you may recall, made similar predictions about the immediate damage Brexit would precipitate, they didn't happen. I was going to post
a similar source to @jaseirai, which you've obviously seen, and as you say, for every economic forecast, there is usually another that counters it.

What's your "similar source"?

 

[Vic]

Just to correct you on your facts again mate.
The LPF was a red line which the UK Govt said they could not accept. The UK wanted a simple tariff free deal without strings like Canada. However the UK caved on this major principle but won a concession from the EU in taking it to independent arbitration.
Of course you could paint the Govt's initial negotiating position on the LPF as one they were prepared to concede, but I don't think so - it was a fundamental principle or act of faith that was integral to the Brexit philosophy of being able to 'do our own thing' and not be tied in to common EU/ 'UK' rules ( which let's face it are EU rules because they're the starting point).

Except for the rules we wanted and got made into EU rules - like LPF - so the new EU entrants had to meet our standards.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

What's your "similar source"?

You have completely misinterpreted I'm afraid, the walk away point refers to the walk away option both sides have after 4 years of this deal. It's not about what we may or may not have done to secure it.

 

[Vic]

You have completely misinterpreted I'm afraid, the walk away point refers to the walk away option both sides have after 4 years of this deal. It's not about what we may or may not have done to secure it.

What? You said you had a similar source to CEBR on economic forecasts....

 

[blueparrot]

We, and the EU can scrap the deal after 4 years, if either side wishes,
there is a 'Break clause,' I think there's confusion about what was being discussed. The UK deal is not the same as the Swiss or Norwegian arrangement.

We can scrap it, but we all know it never will be scrapped, because we all really know any old deal is better than no deal. It's nothing like the Norway. It's nothing like the Swiss, but like the Swiss will probably see new agreements and changes to old agreements, we may not end up in the same place as Switzerland, but we will most likely end up like them with a mass of agreements and ammendments to agreements. Mainly every time we change government with differing priorities.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

I've only seen various summaries of the deal, but it appears the main issue that's upsetting people is that various idiots at either end of the debate had already set their stall out predicting a 'no deal' brexit and have now all been made to look like fannies. Love him or loath him Boris (actually the negotiating team) have delivered on the much scoffed at 'get brexit done' GE slogan. We can argue indefinitely over the nuances of the deal but the extremists at either end of the debate will never be able to get past that fact.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

There are still years of negotiation left, not least on services. Though I assume our ‘viable walkaway’ option of no deal is now out of the game so don’t know what cards we have left. It will also be a battleground of every election, with the sides promising a different relationship with the eu.
I can’t see it being settled, ever really.

What? You said you had a similar source to CEBR on economic forecasts....

The post above you is what I was referencing, I think there's been some confusion, we are talking at cross purposes, in that I'm saying we, and the EU have the option to scrap this deal after 4 years.

 

[Vic]

The post above you is what I was referencing, I think there's been some confusion, we are talking at cross purposes, in that I'm saying we, and the EU have the option to scrap this deal after 4 years.

The confusion is all yours.

What is this "similar source" you mentioned?

 

[west didsblue]

I've only seen various summaries of the deal, but it appears the main issue that's upsetting people is that various idiots at either end of the debate had already set their stall out predicting a 'no deal' brexit and have now all been made to look like fannies. Love him or loath him Boris (actually the negotiating team) have delivered on the much scoffed at 'get brexit done' GE slogan. We can argue indefinitely over the nuances of the deal but the extremists at either end of the debate will never be able to get past that fact.

Who’s upset about the deal?
Nearly everyone has welcomed it. The Brexiteers are pretending it’s everything they ever wanted and the Remainers know that in spite of it being a bit shit it’s as good as we could get in the circumstances and far better than No Deal.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

We can scrap it, but we all know it never will be scrapped, because we all really know any old deal is better than no deal. It's nothing like the Norway. It's nothing like the Swiss, but like the Swiss will probably see new agreements and changes to old agreements, we may not end up in the same place as Switzerland, but we will most likely end up like them with a mass of agreements and ammendments to agreements. Mainly every time we change government with differing priorities.

You describe it as any old deal, I see it as very good, but we'll never change that.
Unlike the Swiss and Norwegians we don't pay for it. They may indeed see new agreements and changes with their arrangements with the EU, we don't have those arrangements, so what they do or don't do has nothing to do with us.
Same as whatever Singapore or Brazil, or whoever, they have their own agreements, we now have ours.

 

[Vic]

I've only seen various summaries of the deal, but it appears the main issue that's upsetting people is that various idiots at either end of the debate had already set their stall out predicting a 'no deal' brexit and have now all been made to look like fannies. Love him or loath him Boris (actually the negotiating team) have delivered on the much scoffed at 'get brexit done' GE slogan. We can argue indefinitely over the nuances of the deal but the extremists at either end of the debate will never be able to get past that fact.

That's a bit like saying we were all fannies when 2-1 down to QPR for not believing we'd win 3-2.

 

[jaseirai]

I've only seen various summaries of the deal, but it appears the main issue that's upsetting people is that various idiots at either end of the debate had already set their stall out predicting a 'no deal' brexit and have now all been made to look like fannies. Love him or loath him Boris (actually the negotiating team) have delivered on the much scoffed at 'get brexit done' GE slogan. We can argue indefinitely over the nuances of the deal but the extremists at either end of the debate will never be able to get past that fact.

It is starting to look like Bunter has pulled it off. I won't mind admitting I was wrong if indeed he has.
Still time for a trap or two to be uncovered though.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

I've only seen various summaries of the deal, but it appears the main issue that's upsetting people is that various idiots at either end of the debate had already set their stall out predicting a 'no deal' brexit and have now all been made to look like fannies. Love him or loath him Boris (actually the negotiating team) have delivered on the much scoffed at 'get brexit done' GE slogan. We can argue indefinitely over the nuances of the deal but the extremists at either end of the debate will never be able to get past that fact.

Agreed, and to get a deal like this within a year is an accomplishment.
Many will dismiss it, as usual, but I don't think it's done Johnson any harm,
far from it.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

It is starting to look like Bunter has pulled it off. I won't mind admitting I was wrong if indeed he has.
Still time for a trap or two to be uncovered though.

There is, I've been wading through it, but can't see anything, but you never know. Bill Cash and crew will no doubt unearth something, but I doubt they'll vote against, we'll see.