Coronavirus (2021) thread

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England hospital deaths 376 with just 30 from the NW.

This is Sunday data remember so usually the lowest number of the week. Even so it is double the last 'normal' number the week before Christmas,

NW usually under reports at weekend so this kind of low number is not necessarily as hopeful as it looks.
 
Eds said:
You think a million people per week are being infected or injected?
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Infected.

Test results are approaching half a million, and we don't catch anywhere close to all of them.

So, very roughly a million infections a week right now.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Infected.

Test results are approaching half a million, and we don't catch anywhere close to all of them.

So, very roughly a million infections a week right now.
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And if herd immunity is circa 60% that would require circa 40m to have caught the virus over the course of the last 12 months. I doubt we are even at 15m yet so a long way from where we would need to be. Mass roll out of vaccinations at 2m per week can't come soon enough
 
bobbyowenquiff said:
Not great PR though. Sends a pretty negative "fuck-you" message to their fans trapped at home in Glasgow. I would be pissed off if City did it at this time.
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Not only that there are photos of Lennon and Scott Brown having a beer together by the pool. Few hours after losing against Rangers.
 
Eds said:
Interesting to see what has happened in places like Wilmslow, Poynton, Macclesfield etc which were in tier 2 when GM was in three. Unsurprisingly cases have risen which is further evidence that all regions need to have the same measures otherwise people will look for loopholes and go wherever they can for a pint.
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Exactly the 'unscientific' point I have been making in here for many weeks as it was very obvious from the daily data.

The government know it as Hancock actually cited keeping Trafford and Stockport in the same Tier as the rest of GM was to prevent them being liable to that impact.

Yet he let those areas of Cheshire be in a lower tier as I noted and said what would happen as a pandemic does not just give up if one route is blocked.

I started tracking in here Cheshire East for Andyhinch every night around then and have kept posting how both it and Stockport followed almost identical paths up up and away well before Cheshire East got moved up a tier the other day.

It was utterly predictable and the government just let it happen.

Only lockdown works. Tiers are dangerous to everybody not in the strictest measures. It just guarantees they are next on the list because we really should call the tiers sieves. THAT is what they actually are in a small country like England where anyone can go anywhere out of the same restrictions with no consequences.

Hardly need to be Einstein to figure out what would happen if you create a system that enables this.
 
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roubaixtuesday said:
Infected.

Test results are approaching half a million, and we don't catch anywhere close to all of them.

So, very roughly a million infections a week right now.
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ONS Infection model for 12 - 18 December reckons 645,800 people (95% credible interval: 610,100 to 683,100), so you'd have to think we're up around a million in the last week now.

edit: that's just England, but i dont think it changes much.
 
Modeling of the outbreak (not peer reviewed, treat with due scepticism) showing what we might expect with current restrictions.

I wouldn't take this as a prediction, but it's probably broadly what to expect.

Essentially, herd immunity through infection is reached early March. 20 million more are infected, more than wave one and two combined to date.

Deaths reduced somewhat by vaccination.

There are many caveats around this kind of model, but the overall picture is credible.

bskiesresearch.wordpress.com

Not even half-way there

Lots of talk from politicians and others that, while not exactly triumphalist, is certainly very positive and enthusiastic about the prospect of vaccinating ourselves out of trouble. Here’s o…
bskiesresearch.wordpress.com
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Modeling of the outbreak (not peer reviewed, treat with due scepticism) showing what we might expect with current restrictions.

I wouldn't take this as a prediction, but it's probably broadly what to expect.

Essentially, herd immunity through infection is reached early March. 20 million more are infected, more than wave one and two combined to date.

Deaths reduced somewhat by vaccination.

There are many caveats around this kind of model, but the overall picture is credible.

bskiesresearch.wordpress.com

Not even half-way there

Lots of talk from politicians and others that, while not exactly triumphalist, is certainly very positive and enthusiastic about the prospect of vaccinating ourselves out of trouble. Here’s o…
bskiesresearch.wordpress.com
Click to expand...

before reading this i had done a back of the envelope 15 to 18 mill infected so far, which agrees (in fact i think he's a little low)
 
grunge said:
there is no plateu in the rise. positive tests by sample date. 29th Dec had nearly 80k cases. Grey bars are still likely to be added too as numbers are processed.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard
coronavirus.data.gov.uk coronavirus.data.gov.uk

View attachment 7561
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You do know it takes 3-5 days for 90% for people to get ill once infected. Look at the PHE reports on where infections are taking place
 
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