Coronavirus (2021) thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Yes, like Ebola for instance. On average around 50% have died from it and even some outbreaks have been as high as 80-90%. But because most die it doesn’t spread very well. Covid has killed more than Ebola despite Ebola’s far higher fatality rate.

Ebola is also Symptomatic transfer only, and only via bodily fluid. and its very obvious when your symptomatic so containment is easier, but then those symptoms are usually, diarrhea and vomiting and bleeding from every orifice so lots of transferable matter being spread about.
 
I agree mate. I think we will need more time to know if the vaccine programme is putting a dent in the virus though. I reckon we will have a good idea on that score from mid to late February
We keep seeing the 50%+ figure quoted but as soon as most of the vulnerable are vaccinated then deaths should fall quickly as these groups account for the vast majority of deaths. Hospital capacity will remain constrained throughout the year though by any number of moderate/severe cases in the unvaccinated age groups so that's the main threat really.

I'd expect things to start looking up come March/April and policymaking will shift from preventing deaths and protecting NHS capacity to purely protecting NHS capacity. More than likely household mixing and social distancing rules etc will remain for the rest of the year but businesses like pubs and restaurants will reopen and we'll start to get back to normal.
 
You can call them after three days and they will flag it in their system and hopefully someone will chase it up and get back to you, but it's a very frustrating process. When it happened to me it turned out they'd lost my results and I never heard back despite chasing 3 times. Hopefully they're just really busy though and you hear back soon!
she just had her results through, she's positive, so isolation here i come
 
Exactly. What else are you doing at 04.35 that is more important? Plenty of people would get flights to go on holiday at 04.35. Which is paramount, holiday or vaccine?
In my experience, old vulnerable people are frightened of going outdoors at the best of times, let alone in the middle of the night in winter when the driving conditions will be far from ideal.

i suspect many have had the red eye flights, but wont recall seeing many over 80s on them
 
I sincerely hope not. If so, I have severe doubts if any sizeable % of the population will cope with that.
Hospital capacity is the main reason why we can't just allow everyone to do what they want until every group has received the vaccine. The reason why is whilst the younger (age <50) population generally won't die many are still hospitalised.

It's a fact that the majority of people admitted to hospital are not in the most vulnerable groups, they'll survive but they'll still need care. Many of these people won't receive the vaccination until the summer.

If we can vaccinate the whole population by autumn then indeed we can then do whatever we want but that requires a very high vaccination rate, one which we are miles off yet.

There's a calculator below which estimates when you'll get it based upon a more likely average vaccination rate. At 32 the earliest I'll get it is July running possibly into October where I wouldn't get the second dose until near Xmas.


If the government can get rates upto 2 million as claimed then indeed we'll be back to normal by late summer.
 
No surprise he won three elections on the bounce. People don’t want to hear it but he offers real tangible solutions to these problems.
The Vaccination Centre at Hyde Lesuire is drive through, you just have to wait in line in your car for 15 minutes after the jab before you drive off
 
Hospital capacity is the main reason why we can't just allow everyone to do what they want until every group has received the vaccine. The reason why is whilst the younger (age <50) population generally won't die many are still hospitalised.

It's a fact that the majority of people admitted to hospital are not in the most vulnerable groups, they'll survive but they'll still need care. Many of these people won't receive the vaccination until the summer.

If we can vaccinate the whole population by autumn then indeed we can then do whatever we want but that requires a very high vaccination rate, one which we are miles off yet.

There's a calculator below which estimates when you'll get it based upon a more likely average vaccination rate. At 32 the earliest I'll get it is July running possibly into October where I wouldn't get the second dose until near Xmas.


If the government can get rates upto 2 million as claimed then indeed we'll be back to normal by late summer.

Yeah, I understand what you're saying and in my head I agree with you entirely. It's sensible. But I think, personally, that once the elderly groups are vaccinated then the people perhaps under 50 or so will be a lot more likely to take on the risk. It'll be weighed up with the risk of themselves becoming seriously ill or the mental aspect of not having properly visited family members for a year. When that's weighed up, I think the mental aspect will come through for most people who are doing what they are doing now to protect parents/grandparents/elderly/vulnerable.
 
Hospital capacity is the main reason why we can't just allow everyone to do what they want until every group has received the vaccine. The reason why is whilst the younger (age <50) population generally won't die many are still hospitalised.

It's a fact that the majority of people admitted to hospital are not in the most vulnerable groups, they'll survive but they'll still need care. Many of these people won't receive the vaccination until the summer.

If we can vaccinate the whole population by autumn then indeed we can then do whatever we want but that requires a very high vaccination rate, one which we are miles off yet.

There's a calculator below which estimates when you'll get it based upon a more likely average vaccination rate. At 32 the earliest I'll get it is July running possibly into October where I wouldn't get the second dose until near Xmas.


If the government can get rates upto 2 million as claimed then indeed we'll be back to normal by late summer.

One calculator was predicting January 2021 for my second dose, but this one now has me at October this year. Progress!
I await the next update with interest: ‘your vaccine driver is seven stops away and will be with you..,’
 
Yeah, I understand what you're saying and in my head I agree with you entirely. It's sensible. But I think, personally, that once the elderly groups are vaccinated then the people perhaps under 50 or so will be a lot more likely to take on the risk. It'll be weighed up with the risk of themselves becoming seriously ill or the mental aspect of not having properly visited family members for a year. When that's weighed up, I think the mental aspect will come through for most people who are doing what they are doing now to protect parents/grandparents/elderly/vulnerable.
Another factor often overlooked is the immunity that may already exist in the population. It's reckoned that 1 in 50 have COVID today and a much larger number will of had it previously (if you could include unreported mild/asymptomatic cases).

An estimate I read before new year was that 10% of the population may have had it and may have some immunity. If this is the case then we'll see an earlier impact from the vaccine on hospitalisations.

The most critical age group is the largest group which is those aged 50-60 many of whom may be just on the edge of risk of complications. If we can get all of those people and anyone older done by the time summer comes around then things will look very good indeed.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top