Churchlawtonblue
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I don't think you can really believe anything coming out of Russia numbers wise.
Coronavirus (2021) thread
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Dave Ewing's Back 'eader
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If people are only making essential trips how come we get a five mile queue on motorways each morning? At the start of the lockdown we could cycle onto the A58 from a side road at Littleborough and not a vehicle within 100 or 400 metres either way. You could cycle straight onto the road, without looking if you were that way inclined, and it was completely safe - neither sight nor sound of traffic. Not now. People, I think, have decided that their trip is essential.
roubaixtuesday
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I don't think you can extrapolate anything from country totals in Israel or Russia to the the UK.
Russia has hardly vaccinated anyone, <1% of the population according to ourworldindata; even if you believe the unpublished efficacy of their vaccine, it's far too soon to see any impact on cases or deaths from the vaccine, will be months away at least.
Israel has gone into a hard lockdown for the last ten days (it's currently one of the few countries in the world to have a worse caseload than us) so any reduction from vaccination is impossible to disentangle from that, except perhaps by age breakdown.
If this wave matches the spring 2020 wave, we can expect a ca. 3 month tail in critical care admissions for covid, from whenever the peak comes (signs are it is happening now). However, this does not take into account the ever increasing rate of vaccination and/or antibodies
NB covid hospital admissions are about 20% higher than the spring peak, critical care admissions lower. Could be the lower median age of those catching it and/or the treatment experience.
Actual total in critical care approaching spring peak;
Some demographics of those deemed critically ill, mean age is UP this time around;
Another interesting stat (not shown here) is that only 20% of critical care covid patients have a BMI <25 (i.e. not classed overweight)
all in here;
NB covid hospital admissions are about 20% higher than the spring peak, critical care admissions lower. Could be the lower median age of those catching it and/or the treatment experience.
Actual total in critical care approaching spring peak;
Some demographics of those deemed critically ill, mean age is UP this time around;
Another interesting stat (not shown here) is that only 20% of critical care covid patients have a BMI <25 (i.e. not classed overweight)
all in here;
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Thanks all.
no better this morning but I’ve pulled myself out of bed so I get brome kind of routine (good advice @tolmie's hairdoo )
I have one position where the coughs stop (lying on my left) if I switch then the coughing frenzy erupts. Sat upright/forward if possible helps.
I’m so cold I can’t face a bloody shower...I’m looking like Ian Beale Vagabond era.
These weird waves of skin chills too...almost like the nerves have been frozen.
stay safe everyone.
no better this morning but I’ve pulled myself out of bed so I get brome kind of routine (good advice @tolmie's hairdoo )
I have one position where the coughs stop (lying on my left) if I switch then the coughing frenzy erupts. Sat upright/forward if possible helps.
I’m so cold I can’t face a bloody shower...I’m looking like Ian Beale Vagabond era.
These weird waves of skin chills too...almost like the nerves have been frozen.
stay safe everyone.
I do quite a lot of motorway miles and it's disturbing how many multi occupied cars are on the road. I can't believe all these people are key workers or making essential journeys.
I only had shivers for a couple of days but I'm yet to hear of a consistent set of symptoms. Keep hydrated and plenty of paracetamols, try and have some soup, eggs or whatever is easiest to digest if you have some kind of appetite. My symptoms lasted 16 days but my mate got over his after about a week so it's hard to say how long you will feel ill. When you get better you will at least have 5 months immunity, hopefully that will get you to the vaccine stage. A Professor on the radio last week said immunity from the vaccine is much better than the immunity from having Covid so take it as soon as offered, good luck.
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“A third reason may relate to the number of infectious viral particles to which people are exposed at the point of infection (the “inoculum”). Although human challenge trials for SARS-CoV-2 are in early stages of development, studies of influenza A virus in humans have shown that initial exposure to a lower inoculum results in fewer and shorter symptoms as well as lower likelihood of viral shedding.89 This parallels animal experiments for influenza and for other viral diseases,10 and more recently for SARS-CoV-2 in Syrian hamsters11 and ferrets,12 in which inoculum size correlated with severity of ensuing disease. Viral load in patients with covid-19 has been shown to be greater in those with more severe illness.13”
Lightening the viral load to lessen covid-19 severity
Adherence to separation measures is key Although the number of positive tests for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) across many European countries has risen sharply in recent weeks, increases in the number of hospital admissions and deaths from covid-19 have not been...
This is where ‘Hands>Face>Space’ really does make a difference.
Thanks mate.
Was indeed thinking I’ve at least 5 months immunity by which time I should be in a position for the jab.
Couid do with never getting this again...ever...my heart goes out to the older and/vulnerable members of society fighting this. Hell.
Bluemoon dan
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I've noticed that myself when doing my usual running route around Littleborough. During the summer when I got to a main road I was pretty much straight across every time. Now I find that more often than not I'm running along the pavement for a bit looking over my shoulder for a gap in the traffic. And if its like that out here in our smallish village I can imagine the Cities will be much worse.
tolmie's hairdoo
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Strong Pholcodeine linctus. Ask someone to get it you from the chemist. It will defo help with coughing, trust me.
Doctors put me on to it. Can take a spoonful three or four times a day.
It has a strong taste, will initially catch the back of your throat, maybe space you out.
Docs explained that after a while, the coughing also becomes programmed by the brain, irrespective of Covid, it forms learned behaviour, so the linctus helps break the cycle.
my father in law is this; he has bad lungs, not a crippling condition by any stretch but he has struggled to talk without coughing (either just a little or sometimes a lot) for a few years now. He got covid in mid-Dec and we were pretty worried but he was a little run down for a week and is now fine and pretty much back to where he was. Weird. Given the numbers who get it, there'll be stories for everything!
Gabriel
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Reading trends in Israel is going to be made more difficult by dint of the fact that it’s never closed its skies, it doesn’t require arrivals to show negative tests, and it doesn’t demand quarantining of visitors.
https://www.jpost.com/health-scienc...ek-of-jan-due-to-hospital-overcrowding-655826
I’ve often thought it would have made sense to use Iceland as a guinea pig and have every country donate enough doses, 500,000 would cover both Pfizer doses, to see how quickly it worked there. Probably naive and missing something key.
They did say early in the Pandemic that Metformin which is a Type 2 Diabetes drug was possibly helpful. It's a very old medication and really cheap to produce, I'm sure we'll find out which drugs will help. It's like Aids, there's no actual cure
but they have a concoction of drugs that stop people dying.
Manc Born & Bred
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Israel did stop visitors coming to the country at some stage and they have also quarantined people by taking them straight from the airport to hotels regardless, no exceptions. Three meals a day, confined to a hotel room, armed guards etc
Manc Born & Bred
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Looks promising for the vaccine
AlgarveBlu
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On a related issue there is some further analysis here from front line workers that were vaccinated at a hospital in Porto with Pfizer. The took antibody level tests at 3 stages leading up to the 15 day mark and seem to be declaring immunity accomplished. Strangely and annoyingly we seem to be the only country that are sticking to the 3 weeks second dose regime.
Between 95 and 97% of health professionals vaccinated against Covid-19 at São João Hospital, Porto, presented, 15 days after the first dose, antibodies that lead to immunity, revealed the director of the clinical pathology service
https://www.theportugalnews.com/new...ccinated-have-antibodies-within-15-days/57759
mrbelfry
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Doesn't the second dose make the affect of the vaccine last longer? I thought first dose was always known to be good but the second dose makes it last longer. Could be massively wrong here though
ayrshire_blue
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Day 10 since symptoms first appeared and thankfully just left with some fatigue and complete loss of taste/smell, and a certain amount of anxiety from a mental point of view. Cough has waned as time went on and fever only lasted a couple of days near the beginning, even that was settled with some paracetamol. Confined myself to the room until Saturday, keeping out the way of the wife and 4 year old. Made it downstairs the past couple of days whilst still keeping a distance from them and touching as little as possible throughout the house.
Tomorrow, I get to give my little un a hug. Can't bloody wait.
Tomorrow, I get to give my little un a hug. Can't bloody wait.
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