Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ayrshire_blue said:
Day 10 since symptoms first appeared and thankfully just left with some fatigue and complete loss of taste/smell, and a certain amount of anxiety from a mental point of view. Cough has waned as time went on and fever only lasted a couple of days near the beginning, even that was settled with some paracetamol. Confined myself to the room until Saturday, keeping out the way of the wife and 4 year old. Made it downstairs the past couple of days whilst still keeping a distance from them and touching as little as possible throughout the house.

Tomorrow, I get to give my little un a hug. Can't bloody wait.
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Glad you are getting through it ok mate.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Day 10 since symptoms first appeared and thankfully just left with some fatigue and complete loss of taste/smell, and a certain amount of anxiety from a mental point of view. Cough has waned as time went on and fever only lasted a couple of days near the beginning, even that was settled with some paracetamol. Confined myself to the room until Saturday, keeping out the way of the wife and 4 year old. Made it downstairs the past couple of days whilst still keeping a distance from them and touching as little as possible throughout the house.

Tomorrow, I get to give my little un a hug. Can't bloody wait.
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Good news mate. Really chuffed for you and yours.
 
somapop said:
Thanks all.
no better this morning but I’ve pulled myself out of bed so I get brome kind of routine (good advice @tolmie's hairdoo )

I have one position where the coughs stop (lying on my left) if I switch then the coughing frenzy erupts. Sat upright/forward if possible helps.
I’m so cold I can’t face a bloody shower...I’m looking like Ian Beale Vagabond era.
These weird waves of skin chills too...almost like the nerves have been frozen.

stay safe everyone.
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Best wishes to you pal for a speedy recovery.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I don't think you can extrapolate anything from country totals in Israel or Russia to the the UK.

Russia has hardly vaccinated anyone, <1% of the population according to ourworldindata; even if you believe the unpublished efficacy of their vaccine, it's far too soon to see any impact on cases or deaths from the vaccine, will be months away at least.

Israel has gone into a hard lockdown for the last ten days (it's currently one of the few countries in the world to have a worse caseload than us) so any reduction from vaccination is impossible to disentangle from that, except perhaps by age breakdown.
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Agreed. Though those early signs are promising they are not yet probative.

We are keeping a close eye on the age distribution of the deaths reported daily with the England hospital deaths.

As far too often true the data the goverrnment release is not fit for purpose. As with no test numbers so no positivity numbers over the weekend a bit like saying we will tell you how many people died yesterday but you will have to wait until next week to see how many had Covid. On a Covid data base.

Also here with 20 year age bands on the deaths when there is a HUGE difference between them even in 5 year bands from 50 upward. And especially from 60 upward. So we are hamfisted by only knowing how many died in the 30 - 59, 60 - 79 and over 80 age bands each day.

The England hospital deaths are by far the biggest UK number every day so we can judge even small changes over a period with the right data. But these bands are extremely limited to do that so I hope they are actually monitoring it more narrowly. Though if they are why not publish it. They KNOW the age of every person who died. As they tell the media specific ages of those who died and with underlying conditions. So it is another example of data control not data release which makes me very unwilling to believe half of what we are told.

Anyway we work with what little we have (there are old figures on a narrower age band but these are weeks behind so not much help).

IF there is a marked change in the protection of the most impacted - the over 80s - that will likely first show in that percentage falling and the 60 - 79s and to a lesser degree the 40 to 59s forming a larger proportion of daily deaths.

Right now they are still much as they always have been - 55% over 80. 35% 60 -79 and 9% or so 30 - 59

But if the lower ages start rising and the over 80s start falling over a period - not just a one off day - then THAT will be significant.

No sign as yet but it is early to expect that given the numbers and the time lag involved. If we are still saying the same thing in 4 weeks time I might be concerned.
 
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ayrshire_blue said:
Of course, as I say I don't think there's anything completely conclusive yet from anything I've read. All I'm saying is, as per your original post, I don't think data is saying that immunity will not last longer than 5 months is all.
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That study is twenty five patients only and the other 58

On this morning today, about sixty mins in, there is a professor asked about immunity and she says the five months is from the trials and all we have at present , not to say it wont last longer but we dont know

I have been clear all along that no dr will tell you that you are immune because we just dont know , they would be sued if you got it again, there is so much we still dont know

I know people want answers but you cant insert your own , science will tell us eventually
 
Of course, a caveat to the above is the haphazard regional way these vaccinations are being done in the UK. It is miles from a uniform policy.

I know first hand from my 89 old friend that even THE most vulnerable and aged were not at the front of the queue as she only got her letter 4 weeks after many who were less vulnerable had had it in the North West. So it was more like a lottery than a plan by the sounds of it.

They announce today they are sending out letters to the over 70s. She at 89 in the very vulnerable shielded from day one category still has not had a first dose. Though happily will on Friday.

It turns out those letters go out regionally and only some areas are inviting the over 70s as announcee today as if ot were fir all as they have done most of the older ones now through local policies or age dynamics regionally and vaccination numbers are escalating fast so they have to plan ahead.

Meanwhile in Wales they chose to limit vaccine to the very elderly and protect all health care workers first.

Not saying that was wrong but - as with different rates in different countries in the UK getting into care homes - this means there is no simple way of looking at how well the vaccination programme should be protecting age groups.

As you definitely cannot assume that by now most over 80s and/or the most vulnerable have had a jab uniformally.

Even on BBC Rip Off Britain this week the three over 70 ladies who present that showed the utter lottery by the youngest of them with no other issues having had it and the oldest with issues not even the letter inviting them.

Unsurprisingly - hopeful as we all are over the vaccine roll out - the sheer relief it is happening is masking the rather disjointed mess it seems to be in terms of reaching the targets. Inevitable I guess given the haste and complexity.
 
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Del_Bosque said:
Hopefully bears out in hospitalisations in a week or 2

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That is hopeful the numbers really are reflecting the end of the post Christmas surge and the impact of the restrictions. Especially in the south. Where the numbers were huge and have fallen the most.ed

Though as I noted last night (I post all the UK hospital regions data around 7 pm every evening as the Gov.UK website is always at least a day out of date for some reason) there WERE signs of some turnaround in the southern regions yesterday - though only early signs not enough to be sure things really are starting to slow.
 
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somapop said:
Thanks all.
no better this morning but I’ve pulled myself out of bed so I get brome kind of routine (good advice @tolmie's hairdoo )

I have one position where the coughs stop (lying on my left) if I switch then the coughing frenzy erupts. Sat upright/forward if possible helps.
I’m so cold I can’t face a bloody shower...I’m looking like Ian Beale Vagabond era.
These weird waves of skin chills too...almost like the nerves have been frozen.

stay safe everyone.
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Stay warm , hydrate , if you have paracetamol take it four hrly, lay in whatever position stops the cough , it is the really grinding bit of this illness, it is horrific and knackering , dont surpress it as such , it is important to keep your airways open ,it will get better , hang on in there
 
mrbelfry said:
Doesn't the second dose make the affect of the vaccine last longer? I thought first dose was always known to be good but the second dose makes it last longer. Could be massively wrong here though
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The first dose is the first exposure if you like and the second dose is a booster where the body responds again to the same threat. The second dose should give a stronger and therefore longer lasting antibody response because the body knows what to do this time but nobody really knows how long.

What's poorly understood though is the immune systems response elsewhere (T-cells etc) and this is probably why the efficacy results were so impressive, unbelievably impressive actually. A study I read has said most people may be resistant to COVID hence the large number of asymptomatic/mild cases. This is thanks to pre-existing T-cell memory and not antibodies which are non-existant in the absence of prior infection/vaccine. Vitamin D apparently is also a major indicator given the demographics of the people who get really sick as most are known to be Vitamin D deficient.

www.bmj.com

T-cells really are the superstars in fighting COVID-19 - but why are some of us so poor at making them?

www.bmj.com www.bmj.com

Although we can't take the chance, it's very likely that the vast majority of people will not need the vaccine because upon exposure to COVID they'll get the exact same asymptomatic/mild symptoms that they'd get had they caught COVID without a vaccine. This is perhaps why the governments accelerated programme to get the first dose out quickly is actually quite a good idea (although indeed a risk).
 
Scottish data:

0 deaths. Though that is common with Sunday data not a guide to much. It was 1 last week.

1429 cases At a rather high 12.3% positive. It was 1782 last week at 11.5%

This might suggest fewer tests were done yesterday.

1959 in hospital (up 41 in day)

146 on ventilators (down 1)
 
Healdplace said:
Scottish data:

0 deaths. Though that is common with Sunday data not a guide to much. It was 1 last week.

1429 cases At a rather high 12.3% positive. It was 1782 last week at 11.5%

This might suggest fewer tests were done yesterday.

1959 in hospital (up 41 in day)

146 on ventilators (down 1)
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Highest % positive since 5th January. Hopefully an anomaly, suppose time will tell.
 
Wales data:

20 deaths - it was 17 last Monday.

1332 cases - it was 1793 last Monday.

At 9.8% positive.

The Wales Weekly Pop score has fallen again for 7th straight day from 322 yesterday to 306 today.

That is below Oldham, best borough in GM, whose Weekly Pop last night was 324. Highest in GM being Manchester at 470.
 
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inbetween said:
The first dose is the first exposure if you like and the second dose is a booster where the body responds again to the same threat. The second dose should give a stronger and therefore longer lasting antibody response because the body knows what to do this time but nobody really knows how long.

What's poorly understood though is the immune systems response elsewhere (T-cells etc) and this is probably why the efficacy results were so impressive, unbelievably impressive actually. A study I read has said most people may be resistant to COVID hence the large number of asymptomatic/mild cases. This is thanks to pre-existing T-cell memory and not antibodies which are non-existant in the absence of prior infection/vaccine. Vitamin D apparently is also a major indicator given the demographics of the people who get really sick as most are known to be Vitamin D deficient.

www.bmj.com

T-cells really are the superstars in fighting COVID-19 - but why are some of us so poor at making them?

www.bmj.com www.bmj.com

Although we can't take the chance, it's very likely that the vast majority of people will not need the vaccine because upon exposure to COVID they'll get the exact same asymptomatic/mild symptoms that they'd get had they caught COVID without a vaccine. This is perhaps why the governments accelerated programme to get the first dose out quickly is actually quite a good idea (although indeed a risk).
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Thanks. My response was in reply to the reports from Portugal really about not being surprised that the vaccine works after one dose. Thanks for the added detail.

I routinely get mocked for using bluemoom as a covid resource but I like to view it is an aggregator for news and opinion. These informed kind of posts are reasons why I think it is valuable
 
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