Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Regional Scoreboard highlights.

Everywhere was down pretty uniformly today - more or less by a few hundred or so.

Only Yorkshire went up. But by just 89 and as the second lowest number to start with in England barely altered at just 2087.

North West fell by 655 to 4011 - the lowest total since 28 December.

London and the South East fell to lowest numbers here since the week before Christmas.

London at 6237 is its lowest for about 4 or 5 weeks and is nearly 10,000 behind its peak around Christmas

Even the South West is nearly half where it was a week ago at 2108.

And the smallest region of all - North East is half where it was around Christmas and its last 3 totals have been very consistent at 1077, 1087 and 1066 today.

 

[kaz7]

I don’t understand how we can be getting so many cases/deaths. There is no mass gatherings, everything is shut almost. I don’t believe people are catching covid from walking outside

This is from the holidays , totally predictable

 

[cleavers]

Wow them figures today
Months of misery to come still.

It's not the headline figure that the media use that is the issue, see below.

Only 319 of those deaths by the way happened yesterday.

It will rise over coming days but it is almost certain the media will go with the 1610 number as if they were all from yesterday. And the true number will never be that high.

Even in the 842 England hospital deaths reported today 27 were not from this year. And 16 before Christmas.

It's still a horrible toll obviously, but it takes 2-3 weeks of lower cases to filter through to this "death" number.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Hmmm. We're ramping down now instead or sumat?!

It’s not rocket science is it? Pretty obvious it’s supply related.

 

[cleavers]

From the advice I sought, it would depend what the symptoms are. Still coughing everywhere or have a high temp then continue to isolate. Feel lethargic and have issues with taste/smell but not coughing etc then should be ok.

That's correct. 48 hours symptom free unless a negative test proves otherwise, I believe.

Thanks, I think the "10 day" thing should be carefully used, and mostly only apply to asymptomatic people.

 

[Marvin]

It's not a big deal, but honestly, you're double counting. I've laid out the arithmetic above.

Some of the 25% are also in the (7% + 14 days @500k)

To put it another way: 25% of the people we vaccinate have already had the infection

[like I said, 25% is likely an overestimate too, but just using your numbers]

I'll leave it at that.

You made it a bid deal. I seriously doubt many of the vaccinated risk group are going to have been infected before. And the final figure comes to over 50% anyway.

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

My wife's school received word from the government earlier today.

They must now open their nursery to all (outside of key worker children) or lose funding for the entire school, which they certainly can't afford to do without.

So many teachers upset at being put further at risk and having to be deployed across different age groups and rotas.

Blackmail by this government. Classy.

To make matters worse, they have already asked for a count of parents who would plan to send their kids in.

Guess what... A full compliment!

And they wonder why teachers feel that parents see them as babysitters.

 

[cleavers]

You made it a bid deal. I seriously doubt many of the vaccinated risk group are going to have been infected before. And the final figure comes to over 50% anyway.

You said 500k per day in your first post claiming 50%, well today is less than half that, and falling, so you're being far too optimistic.

 

[kaz7]

Only 319 of those deaths by the way happened yesterday.

It will rise over coming days but it is almost certain the media will go with the 1610 number as if they were all from yesterday. And the true number will never be that high.

Even in the 842 England hospital deaths reported today 27 were not from this year. And 16 before Christmas.

It doesnt matter exactly when they died , we have known from the start it is not the actual daily total , down playing the number is not the right thing to do , imo, if you dislike the media then complain to them

 

[Healdplace]

These deaths are a result of what we were doing almost a month ago. There is a major lag between cases/deaths. Cases are beginning to decrease as a result of the current lockdown.

As I said earlier this is the problem of misperception the media do not help with.

Yes these numbers today are shocking but they come from just before Christmas when people were seeing their old folks and exchanging presents.

Not what has happened since we locked down.

They should be pointing this out and the dire consequences of little decisions made by families around then to see loved ones because they would want me to. ~

There are two numbers that really matter today as they tell us about now not a month ago.

The big fall off in cases in past week or so. Showing restrictions are working and possibly hinting at other things too maybe. Though as yet too early to be joyful.

And the positivity number at 6.2% that the media will never even mention as the England government seem to nit care at all about it.

But it was more than double that recently. It is now not very far off the 5% number that WHO ask countries to aim for to be considered as having an outbreak under control.

If journalists were not egomaniacs out to become celebs and beam on TV but instead did their jobs and sold the real news to the public and the consequences of actions and the optimism within the dire story of the raw numbers they would earn the MBEs half of them are gunning for by setting the nation on the right path seeing the results of misguided acts and the positives emerging from those who are doing the right thing now.

Sadly not really expecting to see that happen any time soon.

 

[shemnel]

downwards we go.....

cases per 100k, seven day sum (by date of sample)

 

[Healdplace]

It doesnt matter exactly when they died , we have known from the start it is not the actual daily total , down playing the number is not the right thing to do , imo, if you dislike the media then complain to them

Many people believe what they are told about the number today as consequential to what they do today so I disagree it does not really matter.

You know it, of course, so do most regulars in this thread.

But the people see what they are shown by the media and they guide the actions and the mis actions of the next few weeks that will change the data a month from now.

So the lag in cases to death data does matter. Because we can only change it by acting properly now and not being left to think - whatever we do the deaths still rise. Why should I bother?

As I said the media should be making people understand that their choice to visit loved ones at Christmas because they 'would want me to' is partly why 1610 people died today - potentially that loved one - not whatever they have done since.

That message would hit home. Believing restrictions now just makes deaths go up will make them think there is no point bothering behaving at all as it changes nothing. But it does.

 

[CTID Chris]

I don’t understand how we can be getting so many cases/deaths. There is no mass gatherings, everything is shut almost. I don’t believe people are catching covid from walking outside

Everything isn’t shut, at all... you know that.

Supermarkets and (non) essential shops continue to be a problem. Schools are still busy. People are still having to go work unnecessarily.

Cases are reducing which is fantastic, but we all know a little more could have been done.

 

[Gray]

Don’t know, but wonder if there was some picking of the easy fruit first, and now they are teying to catch up on care homes before moving onto too many over 70s.
Which is why I think in a couple of weeks the different UK regions will be roughly in the same place but from slightly different routes.

My sons friend who is in his early 40’s got a letter inviting him to be vaccinated, he thought it was a mistake so got in touch with the clinic in Hale Barns. They said they had done everybody on their books from the older age groups so he is booked in to have his jab today. Meanwhile I am down in Timperley and am 75 next birthday, not heard anything yet. If I hear nothing this week my MP Graham Brady is getting an email from me asking what the hell is going on.

 

[mr t]

I don’t understand how we can be getting so many cases/deaths. There is no mass gatherings, everything is shut almost. I don’t believe people are catching covid from walking outside

I’ve thought this as well but you can catch it from touching surfaces and you don’t see much cleaning going on anywhere.
We went for a walk in the park before Christmas when you were allowed to get a coffee and sit on an outdoors table and there were loads of folk getting coffee / cakes and eating them at tables. I noticed that as folk left a table nobody cleaned the table before the next lot of folk arrived so it could be spreading in ways like this or even touching a door handle or the buttons on a card reader after an infected person has touched them.
To say we are supposedly in lockdown there are still a massive number of infections showing up each day.

 

[Indaparkside]

Everything isn’t shut, at all... you know that.

Supermarkets and (non) essential shops continue to be a problem. Schools are still busy. People are still having to go work unnecessarily.

Cases are reducing which is fantastic, but we all know a little more could have been done.

7am on the m60 this morning was like a normal day traffic to a standstill etc, lockdown my arse people are blatantly putting their middle finger up to to this lockdown and continuing life as normal

 

[cleavers]

It doesnt matter exactly when they died , we have known from the start it is not the actual daily total , down playing the number is not the right thing to do , imo, if you dislike the media then complain to them

Down playing the headline number is the right thing to do, because the highest single day daily death toll since the start of the pandemic is still April 8th at 1073 (the only date it was over 1000 in the first wave), the next highest (currently) is 1064 on Jan 11th, but there are now 4 dates in this wave over 1000.

Nobody is down playing deaths, every one is a tragic for their family and friends, and those that have tried to help them survive it.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Awful deaths figure, but continued consistent drop in cases very heartening. Positivity looks good too.

Drop in cases has been far faster than many feared with the new variant. Suggests perhaps
(1) Schools effect was larger than expected or
(2) Transmission advantage of new variant not as bad as feared, and previous rise only partially caused by it, maybe more by xmas socialising. (massive Ireland Christmas spike would be consistent with that).

Just speculating.

Very hopeful that deaths will peak within the week, and near certain that need occupancy will.

 

[CTID Chris]

7am on the m60 this morning was like a normal day traffic to a standstill etc, lockdown my arse people are blatantly putting their middle finger up to to this lockdown and continuing life as normal

But you know that 90% of them aren’t choosing to. Half of them aren’t being allowed to work from home, half of them can’t.

Wonder how many people were furloughed last March and haven’t been this time.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

7am on the m60 this morning was like a normal day traffic to a standstill etc, lockdown my arse people are blatantly putting their middle finger up to to this lockdown and continuing life as normal

I doubt there's too many on the road at that time who don't need to be. A bit like yourself I'd imagine.