Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Tim of the Oak said:
I agree. The Vaccines Minister said that vaccine nationalism was counter productive (on this morning’s breakfast TV).
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The first half of his BBC appearance was by some way the most clear and competent I've heard from him.
The second half wasn't as good.

Interesting that he's a chemical engineer (like me, by degree), and thus will have an idea of how things work, and at least should understand the terminology. However, it was 30 years ago, and he's never worked in the chemistry field, going into the political arena almost immediately.
 
Gabriel said:
If Moderna creates a 'booster' for use in the autumn, so as to combat new variants, would that work independently for everyone, or would people need to have had the initial vaccine? The UK apparently has 17 million of the initial on order but is not expected to take delivery until March.
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That's an interesting question, hadn't thought about it.

Probably too soon to tell, as it would need test work. I think it's safe to say that any manufacturer will not be ignoring the issue.
 
In layman’s terms, the EU have been slow to order and approve, are now refusing to pay until delivery guarantees have been made and are also threatening vaccine companies about deliveries to the UK until they get what they want?
 
MillionMilesAway said:
I think it's unclear. I doubt Zahawi would want to announce it anyway.

If AZ have e.g. 50 million doses and have promised 60 million doses, then AZ have a problem to solve. It seems that most of the AZ vaccine is made in the UK. As far as I can tell, this is the situation they've got into (numbers being arbitrary, obviously).

Whether a %age of UK supply is reallocated to the EU is politics and diplomacy!
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I can only find mention of one AZ site (see link) being capable of producing 20 million per year, but perhaps there are other sites in the UK, too. However, given that these companies have had problems with their setups in Belgium and have had to slow production to make the necessary changes, then the same might apply in the UK if sites suddenly have to increase production. It could be that most of the UK supply has been made in the UK but that is why more is needed from the European-based plants.

https://careers.astrazeneca.com/united-kingdom
 
shemnel said:
What is the latest evidence re primary school children and spreading covid? are they still considered to be lower risk than adult to adult?
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New varriant in schools:
Primary school - infections slightly higher.
High School- Doubling of infectiousness in the 12-14 age group to a level newly equivalent to adults.
I keep looking for the breath viral load graphs that were published before Christmas for the the new variant to show the reason why.
 
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Gabriel said:
I can only find mention of one AZ site (see link) being capable of producing 20 million per year, but perhaps there are other sites in the UK, too. However, given that these companies have had problems with their setups in Belgium and have had to slow production to make the necessary changes, then the same might apply in the UK if sites suddenly have to increase production. It could be that most of the UK supply has been made in the UK but that is why more is needed from the European-based plants.

https://careers.astrazeneca.com/united-kingdom
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That's fair - I could certainly see that there may be a pause at any stage if a production line is being expanded/amended, and we're not going to know.

Cobra Biologics near Stoke are one of the makers, an independent who aren't part of AZ.
They have a viral vaccine production line which shouldn't have been too difficult to re-tool, but a typical drug plant (e.g. making dexamethasone, or a generics company) would be very difficult/impossible to re-tool without a complete rebuild.
 
BlueAnorak said:
New varriant in schools:
Primary school - infections slightly higher.
High School- Doubling in infections in the 12-14 age group to a level newly equivalent to adults.
I keep looking for the breath viral load graphs that were published before Christmas for the the new variant to show the reason why.
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cheers, this Lancet comment is a little confusing but suggests transmission via primary school kids is low compared to other groups but was perhaps underestimated?

www.thelancet.com

The role of schools and school-aged children in SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Schools form a fundamental part of our society. They are crucial for passing on knowledge and values to younger generations and essential for the mental wellbeing of children and parents alike. Unfortunately, they also present a seemingly excellent environment for the spread of respiratory...
www.thelancet.com
 
MillionMilesAway said:
That's fair - I could certainly see that there may be a pause at any stage if a production line is being expanded/amended, and we're not going to know.

Cobra Biologics near Stoke are one of the makers, an independent who aren't part of AZ.
They have a viral vaccine production line which shouldn't have been too difficult to re-tool, but a typical drug plant (e.g. making dexamethasone, or a generics company) would be very difficult/impossible to re-tool without a complete rebuild.
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Interesting, I think myself and most people would have no idea about just how difficult it is to convert production plants.
Think there were always going to be pauses and that is why late Feb/March are going to be difficult months for everyone, in all countries.
 
Regardless of this current row about vaccine distribution, at least we’ve already jabbed a good number which offsets any potential supply problems. Bear in mind too, that the J&J and Moderna vaccines aren’t too far away either. We should be fine.
 
It’s a bit concerning international politics is being played on vaccinating people. Should be a joined up effort by the entire planet not the better off Western countries squabbling with each other. Longer this virus goes unchecked in under developed countries the more chance of new variants happening that can reset everything back to zero on the vaccine front.
 
Ban-jani said:
In layman’s terms, the EU have been slow to order and approve, are now refusing to pay until delivery guarantees have been made and are also threatening vaccine companies about deliveries to the UK until they get what they want?
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Or is it big pharma signing contracts while knowing they don't have the capacity to deliver on all those contracts in the agreed time-frame?
 
Gabriel said:
I can only find mention of one AZ site (see link) being capable of producing 20 million per year, but perhaps there are other sites in the UK, too. However, given that these companies have had problems with their setups in Belgium and have had to slow production to make the necessary changes, then the same might apply in the UK if sites suddenly have to increase production. It could be that most of the UK supply has been made in the UK but that is why more is needed from the European-based plants.

https://careers.astrazeneca.com/united-kingdom
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4 UK sites. Oxford x2, Keele and Wrexham.
A massive new facility comes online in Oxford later in the year.
3 sites at least in the EU. Netherlands x2 + Germany
 
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lancs blue said:
Or is it big pharma signing contracts while knowing they don't have the capacity to deliver on all those contracts in the agreed time-frame?
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The EU haven’t approved it yet, have they? Seems to me they’re trying to throw their weight around and it’s a terrible look in a pandemic.

I just hope we can continue the manufacturing here at speed and ignore their posturing.

I am fairly sure AZ, and I haven’t been a fan of them in my personal career dealing with them, promised that they would even deliver to those who couldn’t afford it.

This isn’t a business transaction like a banking trade deal, this is lives at risk and the EU need to grow up.
 
If the EU play stupid buggers Nato defence cooperation treaties will be invoked. And if they ignore them I think we can say goodbye to Nato.
The reality is it's all bluster because EU vaccine delivery is a heap of shit.
 
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Gabriel said:
Interesting, I think myself and most people would have no idea about just how difficult it is to convert production plants.
Think there were always going to be pauses and that is why late Feb/March are going to be difficult months for everyone, in all countries.
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It's sort of the difference between a brewery and a custard powder factory, not quite ravens/writing desks.

A viral vaccine plant needs tightly controlled production vessels (which I doubt would be made to brewing vat size), then a whole load of feed and separation stages before and after, all of which has to be sealed and secure.

Production may be a PCR process, and that usually require a heat/cool cycle, so you need smallish production vessels.
 
Ban-jani said:
The EU haven’t approved it yet, have they? Seems to me they’re trying to throw their weight around and it’s a terrible look in a pandemic.

I just hope we can continue the manufacturing here at speed and ignore their posturing.

I am fairly sure AZ, and I haven’t been a fan of them in my personal career dealing with them, promised that they would even deliver to those who couldn’t afford it.

This isn’t a business transaction like a banking trade deal, this is lives at risk and the EU need to grow up.
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It still seems to me that AZ and Pfizer have promised quantities of vaccine that they cannot produce in the agreed timescale. That's totally irresponsible in a pandemic and inevitably causes a lot of concern.
 
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