Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

I do agree with the need to retain measures and keep suppressing until March at least.

We should be in a really good place by then barring unseen disasters always a possibility.

But as numbers fall you eventually will not be able to disguise what the positivity numbers reveal.

In any case all the other UK nations give them daily and Nicola Sturgeon refers to them often so they are not a secret, It is England alone that seems to want to keep it that way. Not the UK.

And sadly yes I know it might have justification given what we see out there. Just feels dishonest though.

 

[Chappie]

dont confuse me wanting to have an exit plan out of lockdown with me wanting mass raves tonight

schools aren’t opening for at least another 6 weeks so nothings going to open up quickly. I think to give people hope it would be nice to see the plan and the hurdles that need to be reached .

If there's one thing I've learnt over the last 12 months of this pandemic, don't promise anything that you don't have any control over, i.e. dates and exit strategies.

 

[Len Rum]

Cases up to 28, 680

750, 048 pillar 1 & 2 tests though. Wow!

That is surely a daily record (over 800K were done in total of you add in things like antibody testing)

That is 3.8% positivity.

Lowest in a very long time.

Again will the media even notice?

Nobody did yesterday and this is well below the 5% that WHO require.

All they will see is cases up again. But THAT is not the story of the last 48 hours by a mile.

On the other hand the BBC are reporting the current NHS React study as showing only a small reduction in infections.
So the Government may have contradictory information and therefore don't want to report the optimistic figures?

 

[Marvin]

Todays testing numbers are the highest ever in the UK at over 818,000 of all types (I only use the pillar 1 and 2 totals) and yet we find 9000 fewer cases than we did last Thursday when there were 176, 000 fewer tests.

Things certainly look better if you know that than just - cases went up 3372 since yesterday.

It's possible lateral flow tests of returning students might be part responsible. I had one this week, and I am doing another tomorrow.

 

[Rammy Blue]

It's possible lateral flow tests of returning students might be part responsible. I had one this week, and I am doing another tomorrow.

Lateral flow tests are included in these figures?

 

[unicorn]

im not saying we release everything now

Christ boris is even saying he isn’t opening the schools until at the earliest 8 March but if cases keep falling 20% week on week then the least they can do is provide a roadmap out of it.

you know important stuff like when I can play golf again.

Easy to belittle the things that other folk find important, like golf and gigs and pubs, but I've never seen my 85 year old dad as happy as last July when he got to go golfing with his mates again. He's lost without it.

 

[Healdplace]

It's possible lateral flow tests of returning students might be part responsible. I had one this week, and I am doing another tomorrow.

That makes sense. Hope you get good news from the test,

I only use the pillar 1 and 2 tests in my calculations so the positivity numbers I cite will always be up a bit on the number if you count all the types of tests.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Way to soon for getting out of lockdown ,the nhs is full still , that has to fall and they have to have breathing room again , no pun intended

some good news on that for you then...
The number of Covid-positive patients in English hospitals fell by 1,491 yesterday: the Health Service Journal describes it as ‘by far the biggest decline recorded since the start of the pandemic’. The previous record was 1,055 on 17 April when the first wave started what turned out to be a steep descent.


‘All seven English regions are now seeing a week-on-week decline in the number of their Covid-19 hospital patients for the first time,’ says the HSJ. London’s Covid-19 patients have now dropped 21 per cent since the peak nine days ago, a rate of decline which would see its total fall below the first wave peak within a week, making it – in all likelihood – the first region to achieve that milestone.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Easy to belittle the things that other folk find important, like golf and gigs and pubs, but I've never seen my 85 year old dad as happy as last July when he got to go golfing with his mates again. He's lost without it.

who said I am belittling it . I am serious .

it’s utter bollox people can walk over my golf club, families can all meet up and sledge down the fairways but two blokes can’t meet up and carry some golf clubs and play golf.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Not looking good, your informant wants admonishing. Think all our vaccine is being shipped to the EU to stop them from moaning.

7 day average has fallen by 20000 the last few days. now 365k was 385k a day. Surely can only be supply. Pretty dissapointing news.

 

[Healdplace]

Regional Summary:

Most regions up a bit. North West up more than London so the gap narrows between them again to lowest in past month or two.

North West up up 319 to 3648. London up 191 to 4267.

However, the biggest riser was South East - up 857 to 4087 - almost equal to London when they were thousands apart until recently.

West Midlands up 279 to 3451 and East Midlands up 379 to 2296.

Yorkshire up 36 to 1880 - still doing the best of all the larger regions.

North East DOWN 80 to 1087 (only faller today)

South West up 772 to 2094

And East up 609 to 3076

 

[ayrshire_blue]

 

[Rammy Blue]

who said I am belittling it . I am serious .

it’s utter bollox people can walk over my golf club, families can all meet up and sledge down the fairways but two blokes can’t meet up and carry some golf clubs and play golf.

Thank fuck the weather has been so shite that the courses would be screwed anyway.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Yeah it's slightly concerning.
As I understand it the AZ vaccine was 62% efficacious after two doses.
If you postulate a 'risk' scenario of say a reduction of 20% in that figure due to one dose, a further 20% drop due to less protection against new strain and another 20% due to less protection in older age groups then the efficaciousness drops to about 32% ?i.e. instead of say 1000 people dying , 680 die.
A reduction of 10% in each of these categories would result in an efficaciousness of 45%?
I may be talking bollocks but the Government must have done these risk calculations.
Time to let people know the facts.

Hi Len, I thought that if you had both doses no one required hospital treatment. Ie no one presumably died??

 

[Gray]

7 day average has fallen by 20000 the last few days. now 365k was 385k a day. Surely can only be supply. Pretty dissapointing news.

First three days last week 910,747 vaccinations (1st). First three days this week 613,629 vaccinations (1st). Down by nearly a third, very concerning the government need asking why?

 

[Healdplace]

some good news on that for you then...
The number of Covid-positive patients in English hospitals fell by 1,491 yesterday: the Health Service Journal describes it as ‘by far the biggest decline recorded since the start of the pandemic’. The previous record was 1,055 on 17 April when the first wave started what turned out to be a steep descent.


‘All seven English regions are now seeing a week-on-week decline in the number of their Covid-19 hospital patients for the first time,’ says the HSJ. London’s Covid-19 patients have now dropped 21 per cent since the peak nine days ago, a rate of decline which would see its total fall below the first wave peak within a week, making it – in all likelihood – the first region to achieve that milestone.

The last 24 hour hospital numbers I post each evening in here for the England regions have been showing that trend for a week.

I think last night was the biggest day to day fall and there was a significant week to week reduction in patient and ventilator numbers starting to appear too.

North West is the region not falling quite as much as the others. But is not now going up either.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Thank fuck the weather has been so shite that the courses would be screwed anyway.

they would and seriously am dreading what our course looks like when we return it has been sledge central during January .

in the summer when we are locked down the bunkers become sand pits for families to build sandcastles

however as a matter of principle if the course was playable we should be able to I don’t think two blokes going for a walk is any different from two blokes playing golf

 

[balotellishaircut]

I had my covid jab on Monday, I’ve just got rid of the side effects ( flu, headaches,aches and pains) today, I presume loads of others felt like this, but my brother felt fine after his jab, no side effects..

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

First three days last week 910,747 vaccinations (1st). First three days this week 613,629 vaccinations (1st). Down by nearly a third, very concerning the government need asking why?

I agree, But they don't want the supply numbers from Pfizer and AZ coming out.

 

[carlosthejackal]

Hi Len, I thought that if you had both doses no one required hospital treatment. Ie no one presumably died??

That has never been claimed by any vaccine manufacturer and stressed numerous times that vaccines are no guarantee that you won’t contract or possibly die , it just reduces the chances by a huge amount. The same scenario with the majority of vaccines.