Coronavirus (2021) thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
worsleyweb said:
yes 12 of 14 got it. 11 over it in two weeks. 1 still very weak and off for a lung scan. Surprised the ex’s mum survived it to be honest.
Click to expand...
Absolutely mad figures, I truly think most people are quite sensible but then you have some idiots who totally dont care
 
Hutchymcfc said:
Absolutely mad figures, I truly think most people are quite sensible but then you have some idiots who totally dont care
Click to expand...

both teachers and one who works for the nhs in hospitals! Madness. Not spoke to her since.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Thanks for the clarification. I thought you meant the priority groups, which is just down to u70s I think.

I think "opening up" to near normal requires something like:

1. Headroom in hospitals in case things go in the wrong direction, and to enable the health service to . Both total COVID beds and ICU COVID beds to a small fraction of what they are now.
2. Very low case load - I'd suggest well down into the hundreds, as it was last summer. That means that if cases start growing, it can be contained without trashing the health service again. Or if the vaccine isn't quite as good as we hope, we can readjust to getting 2nd doses in place.
3. Track and trace up to speed. Again, to keep a lid on any outbreaks, including new variants of concern.
4. Doing it slowly. Primary schools / wait a couple of weeks, Secondary schools/ wait a couple of weeks. Shops, pubs with social distancing, etc until we get a full Etihad in September. If we're lucky, and vaccine passports might be essential for mass gatherings if we haven't got really high vaccine coverage.

All the things we're really missing like pubs, family gatherings, footie, will come faster in the end rather than slower if we keep this controlled.

On "real world" - clinical trials are very closely controlled. Everyone has the jab exactly when they should, eligible people are closely checked, the population often omits the most vulnerable. Just for instance, here whilst the trials did include over 70s, fully half of the deaths in the real world are in over 80s. Will that even older group respond as well? We don't know. Will the 2nd jab make more of a difference for those people? Probably. Most medical treatments show better results in clinical trials where these things are closely controlled than when used with the general public. The emerging Israeli data, for instance, doesn't look quite as good as the trial data (though *very* early to judge, and still very good from what we can see).
Click to expand...

in 3 weeks 88 percent of people who die from this will have had the vaccine (or been offered it!). In 6 weeks 95 percent. Once the hospitals have capacity and we have done the above and it is seen to be working they will be opening up society. If loads of people get it who are under 50 - 99.9 percent of them will be absolutely fine. This is not happy clapping it is a fact is it not?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
worsleyweb said:
in 3 weeks 88 percent of people who die from this will have had the vaccine. In 6 weeks 95 percent. Once the hospitals have capacity and we have done the above and it is seen to be working they will be opening up society. If loads of people get it who are under 50 - 99.9 percent of them will be absolutely fine. This is not happy clapping it is a fact is it not?
Click to expand...

It's a best case scenario. For the reasons I laid out.

Using optimistic scenarios to plan has worked catastrophically badly so far.
 
GM Scoreboard:

831 - down from 941, 35.8% of North West Total which fell by 210 to 2319. 1.4% fall on yesterday,

3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v Today:- 1833 v 1169 v 1100 v 831. Steady down track.



Pop Score is cases across whole pandemic v 100,000 people - rises daily but lower the better.

Weekly Pop is same measure across last 7 days only. Can rise or fall depending on if more cases or less occur today v the same day last week.


Either way Up is bad, down is good.



Manchester 163 – down from 247. Total 46, 085. Weekly 1668. Pop score up 30 to 8336. Weekly Pop down 11 to 302. Just misses out on going into the 200s sadly. Tomorrow hopefully.

Salford 111 - up from 81. Total cases 19, 891. Weekly 737. Pop score up 43 to 7685. Weekly Pop down 5 to 285.

Wigan 105 - down from 134. Total cases 25, 173. Weekly 899. Pop score up 32 to 7659. Weekly Pop down 3 to 273.

Rochdale 83 - up from 60. Total cases 18, 321. Weekly 570. Pop score up 37 to 8237. Weekly Pop up 3 to 256.

Stockport 80 - down from 105. Total cases 17, 581. Weekly 723. Pop score up 28 to 5992. Stays out of the 6000 club just for one day more. Weekly Pop down 20 (big week to week case fall) to 247.

Bolton 75 - down from 89. Total cases 21, 782. Weekly 775. Pop score up 26 to 7575. Weekly Pop down 8 to 269.

Tameside 67 – up from 61. Total cases 15, 442. Weekly 629. Pop score up 30 to 6818. Weekly Pop down 7 to 278.

Oldham 58 - up from 48. Total cases 20, 111. Weekly 564. Pop score up 25 to 8482. Weekly Pop down 7 to 238.

Bury 48- down from 49. Total cases 14, 908. Weekly 438. Lowest weekly total. Pop score up 25 to 7806. Weekly Pop down 13 to 230.

Trafford 41 - down from 67. Total cases 14, 454. 10 days now sub 100. Weekly 520. Pop score up 18 to 6090. Lowest Pop rise in GM in weeks. Picks up another 10 on Stockport's overall pop score lead cutting it to under 100 at 98. Weekly Pop down 11 to 219. Best weekly Pop score in GM. Looking on track again to soon claim all the GM records. Big turnaround since New Year.
 
Last edited:
Nellies left peg said:
No it showed police body armour footage on the local news. ITV West Country, 50 students in Clifton flat with decorations and sound system
Click to expand...
If on the news it’s said they were students fair enough but BBC report Mosside posted there was no mention of students
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top