Coronavirus (2021) thread

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roubaixtuesday said:
Yet the experts who model it say otherwise.

Now, if I had an opinion different to people who'd studied something for their entire lives, rather than tell them they're wrong without even reading their report, what is do is this.

1. Assume I was wrong rather than them
2. Read their work
3. Try and work out what my mistake was.

Could be worth a try?
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Send me the link to the study, seeing as funnily enough you didn’t even bother to link it in your original post...
 
Rammy Blue said:
Ok then, having read the link, why did you choose to post the 2 graphs showing the highest deaths surge rather than the ones for the other R value that show less deaths?

Or why didnt you post both sets and explain the difference?
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Or the final graph which showed it fucking off!
 
Or this one?!!
 

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Rammy Blue said:
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Not quite as sensationalist?
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There is also the self imposed maximum 3 million doses a week limit in this study. We are doing that number now even with constrained supply. As more vaccines come on stream and supply increases I can see us doing 6-10 million a week if needed in the coming months.
 
Rammy Blue said:
(1)Ok then, having read the link, why did you choose to post the 2 graphs showing the highest deaths surge rather than the ones for the other R value that show less deaths?

(2)Or why didnt you post both sets and explain the difference?
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(1) I didn't. There are other scenarios with far worse surges

(2) It was quite a long post already
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I've linked it twice already!

Here you go https://t.co/XM2mZMUVz3
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Yes the restrictions should and will be eased gradually and reflect how well we are doing in combating new variants.

That said, stating the obvious, it’s essential to get the vaccine rates as high as possible, including ensuring maximum supply and winning over “hard of hearing” people /communities. I know a lot of work is going into this but I wonder if there is any Comms targeting Filipino nurses / carers who I read were the least likely front line staff to take the vaccine. Also, I gain the impression from social media that a lot of the Comms is being channeled through the great and the good and I’m not sure if this is always the most effective route for convincing people who are impressionable to conspiracy theories.
 
worsleyweb said:
Or this one?!!
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That one is basing the reduction of restrictions down to the level we were at in September, which wouldn’t be too bad but isn’t where we want to be.

The original post with the worst graphs available was pretty shitty and unnecessary, and people shouldn’t have to have read the study to decipher. Not that I fully understood it but I’ve had to spend 10/15 mins analysing it to get the gist.

Knowing now what the study entailed then as far as I am concerned @roubaixtuesday took the option of sensationalising it and that’s pretty poor form imo, as he could have explained the other view and posted the graphs I have above. He chose not to, which says all you need to know.
 
Rammy Blue said:
C70DBF6C-6740-4FC4-9005-A76F136680FF.png

Not quite as sensationalist?
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I'm not sure how you can characterise anything I wrote as sensationalist. I could have cherry picked a scenario with 5,000 deaths a day if I'd wanted to do that.
 
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