Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Healdplace said:
Looks like this thread may be winding down which is good news indeed if it happens.

Though it might morph into the decimal currency 50 years ago today thread when post Covid struggling shopkeepers hope to tempt others with their D Day Specials - advertised as ten for the price of twelve.
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I think when this thread does finally wind down for real there needs to be some sort of a virtual whip round for you for your posts over the past 12 months. Or perhaps we could award you an MBE (Member of the Bluemoon Empire) for services to data analysis and statistics?
 
By the way I see that Leicester has one of the lowest uptakes amongst medical staff of the vaccine. Under 70%. Being related to a lot of BAME Staff there.

If you have been following my notes on the England hospital deaths recently you will notice how often the Midlands is high on them if not top and how cases wise te E and W Midlands combined are the only region that would exceed the numbers in the NW right now.

Leicester data has always been odd. I recall discussing it here last Summer when its cases were still rising when the whole UK Had otherwise flatlined for mid Summer and it had to go into special measures in late June even for GM did.

We did consider the high BAME population as a possible factor in why it was acting so contrary.

Not only now do we have the high deaths there and the low uptake amongst health care staff of the vaccine but the case numbers in Leicester are pretty high and it is clocking up still some of the highest daily Pop Score rises in the UK.

I recall posting here all those months back a suggestion someone should be investigating why Leicester was si far off script.

Does anyone know if someone did as I would say it remains a story to be told.
 
Bluemoon dan said:
I think when this thread does finally wind down for real there needs to be some sort of a virtual whip round for you for your posts over the past 12 months. Or perhaps we could award you an MBE (Member of the Bluemoon Empire) for services to data analysis and statistics?
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Thank you, but truly I do not wish for any reward. As this being over well enough for the thread to shut down is the only one I ever want or need.

Indeed doing this has helped keep me sane as otherwise I might have had to finally write another book.

And the world does not need that any time soon I can assure you.
 
Be cautious of those numbers - lowest test figures in ages.

373, 484. Pillar 1 & 2. It was double that some recent days. (2.61%)

Indeed yesterdays 10,972 cases were from even fewer tests - 368, 247. (2,99%)

Though fewer cases around might mean fewer tests needed to an extent as well.

On Friday there were 593, 335 for 13, 308 cases (2.24%)

Those positivity ratings are all too low and it is hard to know what is really going on with the testing tbh.

But the numbers are real and from what in the past would have been high numbers of tests even today.

Just big difference in numbers day to day to take them too literally imo.
 
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Looking around the Covid map n gov.uk I don't detect any reduction in the rate of change although it is noticeable that cases are falling faster in London and the South East than the North. I think this maybe because there is still some rotation from the old strain to the UK variant going on in the North? At any rate it is good to see that the epidemic just keeps on falling. Of course it is a strong function of the lockdown. We need the scientists to model the moment when sufficient numbers have been vaccinated to allow for restrictions to be eased. We also need a way of checking that the variants aren't silently growing.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
If you look at worldometer daily new cases are also falling globally now
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The vast majority of the world’s population is in the northern hemisphere and we‘ve got through the darkest period of winter. Maybe it’s a natural slowing down as the weather begins to warm.

I, obviously, am not a virologist, but am hoping that as the weather warms and the vaccinations take effect, then the rate will continue to drop.

The Southern Hemisphere will be moving towards their winter, but with only around a bilion people down there, hopefully their rates don’t spike like the did in the north.
 
Healdplace said:
Thank you, but truly I do not wish for any reward. As this being over well enough for the thread to shut down is the only one I ever want or need.

Indeed doing this has helped keep me sane as otherwise I might have had to finally write another book.

And the world does not need that any time soon I can assure you.
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I’m looking for a good book.. what have you previously written?
 
Healdplace said:
Be cautious of those numbers - lowest test figures in ages.

373, 484. Pillar 1 & 2. It was double that some recent days.

Indeed yesterdays 10,972 cases were from even fewer tests - 368, 247.

Though fewer cases around might mean fewer tests needed to an extent as well.

On Friday there were 593, 335 for 13, 308 cases\
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I've been tracking our LA case numbers on the bar chart, and it's quite interesting here in that, the highest "pop score" on 10th Feb (latest date) was in the 90+ age group, followed by 20-24 year olds, but the 90+ is more than 50% higher than 20-24, apart from kids, the best age group "pop score" is now 70-74, which is well under 100.
 
More on the testing - the numbers from the PCR testing - which make up a lot of the data now - are under 5% for the first time in 4 months. So that suggests a degree of reality to the falls if not to the literal day to day totals.

Week to week Monday totals in 2021 a better guide:-

58, 784 v 46. 169 v 37, 535 v 22, 195 v 18, 607 v 14, 104 v 9765 today.

No arguing with that real trend.
 
Dr John Campbell's comments yesterday evening on the Vitamin D study in Barcelona. I find it Incredible that this finding has resulted in the treatment being rolled out across the NHS already, as the effect is so dramatic. 64% of deaths could have been avoided. SIXTY FOUR PERCENT.
 
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Healdplace said:
231 England hospital death by age:

20 - 39 (1) 0.4%

40 - 59 (20) 8.7%

60 - 79 (101) 43.7%

80 PLUS (109) 47.2%

Again the 80 Plus death % falls and now regularly below 50 % after hardly ever up to recently

And the gap to the 60 - 79 age range narrower than ever.

Exactly what to expect as the over 80s first to be vaccinated and these numbers will only shift weeks into the vaccination programme given the lag between catching Covid and dying from it .

Encouraging to see the data day to day reveal how the vaccine is working as it is pretty clear now this is a factor in what these numbers are revealing. Moreover a factor that should only increase in significance as the next few weeks unfold.
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1613406449341.png

Yup, vaccinations are working!

Here's the graph by date of death since a month before vaccination started (8th Dec)

The consistent downward trend on % of over 80s continues

I'm now firmly convinced this is a vaccine effect coming through.

At some point the vaccinations for younger age groups will start to affect it and in principle should see this stop or even reverse, although I think by that point numbers will be so low it won't be possible to measure any more. I just went and checked, and to my surprise, under 80s vaccinations actually overtook over 80s 17th January. But I'd guess many of the younger ones were healthcare and care workers, so unlikely to be a significant part of mortality. My guess is that the current trend will continue for at least another week or two, then total deaths will start to plummet beyond what would be predicted from the trend in cases ie beyond the 25% a week we see now.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Dr John Campbell's comments on the Vitamin D study in Barcelona yesterday evening. I find it Incredible that this finding has not been rolled out across the NHS.
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As posted earlier, the study is far from conclusive.



If you follow the link to the lancet pre-print you can find more comments.

It would be very disappointing if on the basis of such a study prescribing advice was changed. That doesn't mean vit D isn't valuable, just that this study of it doesn't tell you if it is or not.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
As posted earlier, the study is far from conclusive.



If you follow the link to the lancet pre-print you can find more comments.

It would be very disappointing if on the basis of such a study prescribing advice was changed. That doesn't mean vit D isn't valuable, just that this study of it doesn't tell you if it is or not.
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64% less deaths is not trivial.
I guess we will just have to wait for the study in one of the large London teaching hospitals to report.
This is exactly the same as the UK health establishments refusing to admit that face masks worked in reducing infections at the end of April.
I.e. Maximum stupidity.
 
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